The Denver Broncos offense is painful to watch. The team has somehow managed to win four of their first six games, but if the offense does not improve, the team is likely missing the playoffs. Fortunately, there is at least a potential reason why this offense has looked bad, as the Broncos schedule has been insanely tough this year.
We're definitely having a totally different conversation now if the Broncos had just played six of the worst teams in the league. There is much more of a runway for this unit to improve than regress just based on that.
But here, we also outlined three reasons why the offense will improve as Week 7 approaches.
The Denver Broncos offense will improve, and here is why
The Broncos have played an abnormally large amount of great scoring defenses
The Broncos have had to deal with the following scoring defenses through the first six weeks:
-Chiefs: 2nd
-Jaguars: 3rd
-Rams: 17th
-49ers: 4th
-Chargers: 22nd
-Seahawks: 7th
A couple of things to note as well - the Rams defense has only allowed an opposing passer rating of 77.2 this year. The Chargers unit has allowed an opposing passer rating of 90.7. Like the Broncos, the Chargers have only allowed seven passing touchdowns this year, and the Rams have allowed just eight.
Not only that, the Rams have only allowed a 57.5 percent completion percentage as well, which is just below the Broncos. That data is all to show that the Chargers and Rams defenses really aren't as bad as the scoring defense rank above indicates. The Broncos quite literally have played six legitimate defenses in a row to begin the season.
And that simply is not the case going forward. Sure, the team will have some tougher matchups coming up, but the toughest games are over with. Taking advantage of some below-average defenses is likely, and the Broncos will face those teams as the season rolls on.
The October/November months are still very kind to Bo Nix and the Broncos
This is still the part of the season where the Broncos, and Bo Nix, play at their best. In October and November of the Nix era, the team is 15-4. Nix has 33 total touchdowns in those 19 games and has a 92.9 passer rating in October, and a 90.3 rating in November.
Nix also averages 244.6 passing yards in November, which is the highest monthly total of any. For whatever reason, this team heats up right in the middle of the month. The data is there, and the schedule also allow for this to happen, as the team's easiest games actually run through December.
The Broncos getting hotter as the mid-season stretch approaches is very likely.
An eventual regression to the mean
A regression to the mean with Nix and the offense's performance is likely, and the definition of this phenomenon also helps clarify what we mean here:
"Regression to the Mean (also known as regression toward the mean, reversion to the mean, or reversion to mediocrity) refers to the statistical phenomenon in which extreme values, whether unusually high or unusually low, are likely followed by values closer to the average on subsequent measurements."
The unusually low performance of the offense isn't going to remain the case all year, as it really hasn't been the case for much of Nix's career. Sure, the Broncos have gone through stretches of poor offensive play here and there, but it's never really felt this bad before.
You could also look to the famous saying of 'what goes up must come down' as further inspiration here, but for the Broncos, it'd obviously be the opposite. This is all to say that the Broncos are in a rut - the offense flat-out stinks, but there are more reasons to believe in a return to normalcy than not.
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