The Denver Broncos are now 4-2 on the season and 4-1 over their last five games. The latest win was another dramatic victory, this time coming against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
Denver generated three more turnovers in their latest game, and they're already on an insane turnover pace that just did not happen last year. The total 180 this team has done in the turnover department could truly change the course of the season.
The Denver Broncos have already generated 10 turnovers this year
Denver has generated at least one turnover in five of their six games this year, and they already have three games this year with multiple turnovers. In total, this team has taken the ball away 10 times in six games, which would put them on pace for 28 total turnovers this year.
The progression from 2025 is quite something. Last year, the Broncos had just five regular season games with multiple turnovers, but they never had two turnovers in a game and totaled just 14 turnovers in their 17 regular season games.
The team did not notch their 10th turnover until their 12th game of the season. With 10 through six games this year, the Broncos are currently pacing to take the ball away twice as much this year as they did last year.
And one of the main discussion points people had with the Broncos was just how little turnovers they had compared to how often they got to the quarterback. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks last year and 164 quarterback hits, but do only generate 14 turnovers would logically tell you that something wasn't adding up.
This then had us discussing a possible regression to the mean, which is defined as:
"...when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean."
Essentially, the Broncos near-historically high sack total but small turnover in comparison last year could even out this year. The Broncos are, as we said, on pace for 28 turnovers this year, but they're now on pace for 51 sacks, which would be 17 fewer than the previous season.
However, the overall defensive impact is still there, and you could argue that turnovers have a bigger impact on games than sacks do. This newfound turnover frequency is really something that could come in handy later in the season, as being able to steal a possession or two from a team makes things easier for the offense.
And it also could help the offense get out of the funk they're currently in, as we've seen regression across the board from that unit this year. The 2025 Super Bowl champion Seahawks had 25 turnovers, which was tied for the 5th-most in football. The 2024 Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles had 26 turnovers, which was the 5th-most in the NFL.
Oddly enough, the 2022 and 2023 Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs didn't take the ball away a ton those years, but the 2021 Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams generated 25 turnovers, which was tied for the 6th-most in the NFL. We can go back even further, too, as the 2020 Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers also had 25 turnovers, which was tied for the 4th-most in the league.
I think you get the point - the Broncos being able to generate more turnovers this year is a welcome sign and something that could be a catalyst in the team making a deep playoff run, and given how uncommon they were for the team last year given the number of sacks, seeing the numbers balance out more this year is not a surprise,
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