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Math class is in session: Broncos’ playoff chances by the numbers

By Lou Scataglia

Oct 2, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) warms up before a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) warms up before a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Denver Broncos are approaching a crucial point in their 2022 season. Their Thursday night game against the Colts is a near must-win.  The Denver Broncos 2-2 start has been widely talked about across the NFL.  Many have hammered Russell Wilson and his first several starts in orange and blue, and others have put Nathaniel Hackett through the ringer.

After roughly one quarter of the season, the Broncos are in a fine place record-wise.  The 2-2 record is likely not what many expected, but history would tell us that they are doing OK so far.  It’s likely that the offense regresses to the mean all while the defense continues to play well.

A while ago, someone posted an informative chart on Reddit.  The chart was generated by FiveThirtyEight and referenced from Pro Football Reference.  The point of the chart is to assign each possible record in what was then a 16-game season a percent chance to make the playoffs.

The chart can be found here, and it’s very helpful.

The only downside to the chart is that the sample is from 1990-2013, which is a bit outdated, but it’s still a 23-year sample.  So, what does the chart say about the Denver Broncos’ playoff chances through four games?  According to the chart, the Broncos currently have a 36 percent chance to make the playoffs at their current record.

They have a favorable matchup against the Colts on Thursday.  A win would bring them to 3-2, which is a .600 winning percentage.  This would put them on pace to win 10.2 games this season.  A 3-2 record also gives them a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs, which is noticeably higher than their 2-2 record.

A loss on Thursday night gives the Denver Broncos a 22 percent chance to make the playoffs.  The variance is 14 percent each way.   Denver plays four more games until they reach their bye week, including on Thursday.

What does each record possibility say about their chances as they head to the bye?

  • 6-2 (81 percent chance to make the postseason)
  • 5-3 (67 percent chance to make the postseason)
  • 4-4 (33 percent chance to make the postseason)
  • 3-5 (7 percent chance to make the postseason)
  • 2-6 (0 percent chance to make the postseason)

The 2-6 may not be a true 0 percent chance obviously, but it’s essentially a deathwish.  Fortunately, Denver has shown some fight through four games.  The Broncos were able to claw their way to a victory against the frisky Texans, and they won their game against the 49ers, who just beat up on the defending Super Bowl champions.

I think a 4-4 or 5-3 record at the bye week are the two most likely scenarios, and the percentage difference between the two records is the biggest gap of their possible records as they head to their bye week.

I’d anticipate that they can take care of business against the Colts at home and the Jets at home on October 23rd.  Their games against the Chargers and Jaguars are true 50/50 contests for me.

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