How many points can the Denver Broncos score in 2022?
Russell Wilson is bringing an elite offensive pedigree to Denver. How many points can this offense score with him under center?
Broncos Country should prepare themselves for a very good offense.
The Denver Broncos’ inability to consistently score points the last six seasons, because of their quarterback play, remained their single most important issue.
Now, it’ll be a strength.
We’ve seen a ton of projections from the national media figures on how good the Broncos will be.
Some figures seem to be very high on the team, while others are a bit wary, mainly because of them playing in the AFC West.
Regardless of how many games they win in 2022, I want to look at how many points we can reasonably expect them to score in 2022.
For this piece, I am going to look back at the points per game that the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks’ teams scored, dating back to his rookie season in 2012.
From there, I’ll do a few other very simple calculations and form a point total for the 2022 season.
Let’s get to work.
So, the first step here is to find the points per game from each season since 2012 from the Seahawks.
Starting from 2012, all the way to 2021, the Seahawks scored the following points per game: 25.8, 26.1, 24.6, 26.4, 22.1, 22.9, 26.8, 25.3, 28.7, 23.2*
These point totals ranked 9th, 8th, 10th, 4th, 18th, 11th, 6th, 9th, 8th, and 16th*.
“*” signifies signals that Wilson missed a few games, the first game missed of his career.
So, the average points per game that the Seahawks scored during the Wilson era is 25.2 points per game.
That would have ranked 13th in the NFL this season. In 2021, Denver was 23rd, averaging less than 20 points per contest.
If we average out where in the league the Seahawks typically finished in points per game, we get 9.9, which rounds to 10.
So, in his ten years in Seattle, Russell Wilson’s offenses finished with an average of 25.2 points per game and finished 10th in the NFL in this ranking.
Now, we must also consider the new environment he’s in.
He’s playing with the first offensive head coach of his career, and arguably has the best core of offensive talent around him, from the offensive line to the receivers, to the tight ends and running backs.
I think when we project a point per game average for this season, we have to factor in all of that.
I do genuinely think that Russell Wilson is going to be able to “cook” the way he wants to. There was a reason why he wanted out of Seattle and wanted to go to Denver.
In four out of his 10 years in Seattle, Wilson-led offenses averaged over 26 points per game four times.
I think in 2022, we see that point total.
The Denver Broncos averaging 26 points per game would allow them to win a ton of contests. In 2021, Denver’s defense allowed just 18.9 points per game.
That ranked second in the NFL.
Just imagine, for a second, if Denver averaged 26 points per game on offense and 20 points per game on defense.
I do think a slight decline on defense is likely. Vic Fangio’s defensive expertise cannot be overstated.
I’d be OK with making these my “official” predictions for the season. Denver’s offense: 26 points per game. Denver’s defense: 20 points per game allowed.
So, what kind of output on offense and defense have prior Super Bowl champions made?
The 2021 Rams scored 27.1 points per game and allowed 21.9 points per game.
The 2020 Bucs scored 30.8 points per game and allowed 22.2 points per game.
The 2019 Chiefs scored 28.2 points per game and allowed 19.3 points per game.
The 2018 Patriots scored 27.3 points per game and allowed 20.3 points per game.
For all intents and purposes, the Denver Broncos can finish their season with similar numbers.
On offense, specifically, though, I expect the Denver Broncos to score 26 points per game, and finish in between 7th-10th overall in points per game.