Denver Broncos draft: What does history say about pick 64?
The Denver Broncos’ first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is the 64th overall selection. What does history tell us about this pick?
Not until the last pick in the second round are the Denver Broncos making their first selection. Obviously, they can trade up from 64, but given what George Paton has said regarding wanting a ton of draft capital, I don’t think it’s likely.
I think it’s more likely that the Denver Broncos would trade down from 64 as this is a deep draft class in multiple positions.
However, I wanted to look at the recent draft history of the 64th overall selection, dating back to 2015.
A reminder that these draft picks are all simply numbers. Yes, first-round picks have a higher chance of becoming studs, but no matter where someone gets picked, they can blossom into an elite player.
Players like Tony Romo and Chris Harris, Jr were undrafted. Players like Tom Brady and former Bronco Danny Trevathan were late-round picks and turned out fine.
Having higher picks is nice, but it’s ultimately up to the players to make the most of it.
So, let’s look at the history of the 64th overall selection, dating back to 2015.
The 64th overall selection in 2015 was made by the New England Patriots when they selected safety Jordan Richards. The Patriots are not known for being great during the NFL draft.
Richards is still in the NFL. He’s a reserve player, most recently for the Ravens. He only appeared in two games this season. Could we call the 64th overall pick a bust? I guess we could, but Richards is still in the league but is nothing of note.
In 2016, Kevin Byard was the selection by the Tennessee Titans. Byard is one of the best safeties in the NFL, making two Pro Bowls and two All-Pros.
Byard has 23 interceptions in his career and has never missed a game in his career. If Denver could get someone with the impact that Byard has had, they’d be in great shape.
In 2017, the 64th overall selection was Taylor Moton of the Carolina Panthers. Moton has never missed a game in his career and is the team’s right tackle.
Taylor Moton might not be a household name, but he’s very, very good at what he does.
Moton recently signed a $72 million extension. He’s the best player on the Panthers’ offensive line that also added Bradley Bozeman and Austin Corbett.
In 2018, the Colts took Tyquan Lewis with their 64th overall selection. Lewis is a rotational guy who had 4.0 sacks in 2020. He’s never started more than six games in a season and has appeared in all games just once in his career.
Lewis can probably stick around in the NFL as a rotational player, but he’s yet to prove anything more.
Denver could definitely do better with their selection.
In 2019, the Seattle Seahawks selected D.K. Metcalf with their 64th overall pick. Metcalf is an elite player who has over 3,000 receiving yards in his first three seasons. He’s been subject to trade rumors as well and is set to break the bank with a massive contract extension.
He’ll likely sign a deal worth around $25 million per year on a four or five-year pact.
Metcalf is a stud who can enjoy a long career in the NFL.
In 2020, the Carolina Panthers drafted Jeremy Chinn at 64. Chinn is a very talented young player and a 6’3″, 220lb safety.
He ran a 4.45 at the combine and has a 41.0 inch vertical. He finished second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2020 and has played in 31 games in his two years.
Chinn is soon going to be one of the top safeties in the NFL. He’s got the ability to play a safety-linebacker hybrid role and has over 200 combined tackles in his two years.
In 2021, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took Kyle Trask at 64. It’s unknown what he’ll turn into but he was viewed as a prototypical pocket passer coming out of Florida. He’s got good size and a decent arm. Perhaps he is the heir apparent to Tom Brady. As of now, it’s unknown what he’ll turn into, though.
So, there were four homerun selections with the 64th overall pick since 2015. Kevin Byard, Taylor Moton, D.K. Metcalf, and Jeremy Chinn.
There were two “eh” selections in Jordan Richards and Tyquan Lewis. They’re both still in the league but are nothing special.
There is one unknown with Kyle Trask.
So, of the last seven picks made at 64, 57% have been a giant success. Those are absolutely ridiculous odds, especially for a pick way down in the second round.
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Do we trust George Paton with 57% odds to make the right selection for the Denver Broncos? I do.