Denver Broncos: Quarterback options for new GM George Paton
There’s not exactly a “one size fits all” blueprint for being a general manager in the NFL. New Denver Broncos GM George Paton emphasized in his initial press release that he doesn’t want to take any shortcuts to finding success in Denver and that he believes in drafting and developing as his number one priority.
While that is great to hear and all, Paton’s assessment and ultimate decision regarding the quarterback position will be the most important decision he makes in his first two or three months on the job.
Having a new general manager in the building doesn’t mean the Denver Broncos 100 percent will move on from starter Drew Lock, but it could.
Each option available (realistically) to Paton in the 2021 offseason would have immediate and long-term consequences, and not just for him.
Let’s take a look through the quarterback options for the Broncos’ new GM and what the most prudent course of action might be.
1. Stick with Drew Lock, add a better “hedge”
The case for keeping Drew Lock around is not agreeable to every Denver Broncos fan.
Many Broncos fans have graded Lock on a curve and compared him to players like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and a number of others who have had great success earlier in the development process.
Lock, to his credit, has not had consecutive years with the same offensive coordinator since his sophomore and junior years at Missouri. Imagine being shipped around the globe and being told you need to master your way around and speak a new language every year.
Digesting an NFL playbook is not unlike learning a new language completely, and as a quarterback, you’re expected to not only know the offense but be able to identify coverage and go through reads and progressions.
If cool heads prevail, it’s abundantly clear that, over the course of weeks 1-17 (with some hiccups along the way in the form of an injury and the Saints game/COVID issue) and especially over the final six games of the season Lock made clear and visible progression in his overall game, not only in terms of putting up better numbers but showing a better understanding of the Pat Shurmur offense and identifying coverages.
If you have not yet taken the time, take a deep dive into Tim Jenkins’ YouTube channel for a full 2020 season review of Lock’s games and go through all of the individual game breakdowns as well.
Each game breakdown has a ‘good’ and ‘bad’ section and there is no question that Lock has plenty to work on, but his issues are easily correctible and another year in Pat Shurmur’s offense should do wonders for him and everyone else around him.
It does seem clear, at this point, that the Broncos will bring in a better “hedge” for Lock than Jeff Driskel. This hedge would likely be a veteran quarterback who has proven they can start (and win) games in case Lock struggles badly or is hurt.
Some names to watch here would be Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, or Tyrod Taylor. Those players all have achieved some form of success in the NFL and would be much better options behind Lock if the Broncos feel the roster is at a place to be competitive and QB play is the primary issue they are not.
Denver Broncos QB options for new GM George Paton
2. 2021 NFL Draft prospects
This is going to be discussed at length over the course of the next three months, so we’re going to boil it down as simple as possible for the time being.
Drafting a quarterback is undoubtedly on the table for the Denver Broncos with a new general manager in place.
New coaches and general managers in the NFL do not have any emotional investment in previous draft selections at quarterback. Look at how savagely the Cardinals ripped Josh Rosen from his initial situation (a bad one) and shipped him off for Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury.
To a new GM, Drew Lock is a former second-round pick who has shown flashes of upside and as previously mentioned — improvement — who also contributed significantly to the Denver Broncos being the worst team in the NFL this past season at turning the football over.
Lock is 24 going on 25 in November 2021, and while he has obvious upside with his overall skills and talent level, Paton is going to have to decide whether Lock’s upside with his current body of work is worth passing on the 2021 class, or at least the guys realistically available to him.
While Trevor Lawrence is all but a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars at this point, the Denver Broncos could realistically have a shot at all of the remaining (presumed) top three quarterbacks: Ohio State’s Justin Fields, BYU’s Zach Wilson, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.
All three of those prospects have intriguing tools and would be worth selections in the first two rounds. Depending on who you ask, Lance is not necessarily a sure-fire first-round prospect, but he has solid all-around tools, excellent athleticism, and he’s known for being a very hard worker.
Wilson burst onto the scene for BYU this season with his huge arm and ability to make plays with his legs, but most impressive from Wilson all season was his truly instinctive playmaking. Frankly, his style of play is reminiscent of Drew Lock whether you want to look back at his Missouri tape or his tape with the Broncos in the NFL.
Fields may have the best all-around tools of the group in terms of size, arm talent, production, and athleticism. That’s partly why he’s considered by many the second-best QB in the draft, but that is not unanimous among NFL people who also like Wilson.
How much input Vic Fangio has in this decision could be significant. Fangio needs to win in 2021 in all likelihood to keep his job beyond this season.
Drafting a quarterback is never an exact science, and beyond Trevor Lawrence, are you going to get upgraded QB play out of this position in the short term? Does Paton want to attach his reputation as GM to whoever is left after the dust of the top five picks settles?
To me, this is not the wisest move, even with scouts apparently being somewhat down on the 2022 class already. A lot can change in a year.
Denver Broncos QB options for new GM George Paton
3. Get aggressive
The option of Deshaun Watson, which was previously discussed here, is certainly fun to think about.
Ultimately, is there really any chance the Houston Texans are going to let Watson out of there? It just seems highly doubtful and it would almost be less surprising if the Texans let Watson sit out in protest of the team not granting his trade request than it would be to see a trade like that go down.
The other option that is not oft discussed is Dak Prescott’s situation in Dallas, where franchise tagging him again in 2021 would take a substantial percentage of their overall salary cap number, which is projected to go down this year.
That doesn’t mean the Cowboys would not end up doing it, it’s just worth noting it would cost them elsewhere (possibly significantly) to do so.
With the ideas of Watson and Prescott more pipe dreams than realistic options, what could the Broncos do that would be “aggressive but not reckless” at the quarterback position in terms of making a veteran acquisition?
The biggest name that might be available is Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions.
With a new GM and new head coach coming to Detroit, the conversation will likely be had about Stafford’s future with the team and what kind of assets the Lions could possibly recoup by trading him.
For the Denver Broncos and a first-year GM in George Paton, would you trade the 9th overall pick for two years of Matthew Stafford?
That’s probably too big of a pill to swallow. But the Broncos’ second-round pick in 2021? That might be a possibility.
Acquiring a veteran like Stafford who has been around the NFL for a long time at this point might be the only truly preferable option to Drew Lock, who also has only two years left on his contract.
Even with the increased budget at QB by adding Stafford in a trade, he might be the most realistic veteran upgrade at the position to justify getting rid of Lock and moving on completely. Even saying that, ‘realistic’ would still include the two teams agreeing on trade compensation and the Broncos figuring out how to re-adjust their entire budget at quarterback.
That’s not impossible, but also not easy.
The other idea for being aggressive in a trade could be going after someone like Sam Darnold, whom the Broncos were high on ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft. The guys who were high on Darnold — presumably John Elway and Matt Russell — are obviously not making the final calls anymore.
Adding Darnold via trade would likely cost more than anyone in the fan base would really love to see, and there is no doubt that if you trade premium draft assets for Darnold, you’re not bringing him in merely to back Drew Lock up and hope for the best.
Ideally, the Broncos would be able to trade for Darnold on the cheap heap and pull off something similar to what the Tennessee Titans did with Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill in 2019, only adding Darnold would likely mean you are opening up the competition throughout the offseason, not just rolling with Lock and having Darnold wait in the wings in case he’s not good enough.
Denver Broncos QB options for new GM George Paton
Conclusions
The availability of Matthew Stafford could change things as he would represent a veteran who is established, still can play at a very high level, and would not require a ton of time to learn the language of the Pat Shurmur offense and operate it at a high level.
Will George Paton and the rest of the front office and coaching staff in Denver buy into Drew Lock’s progression on tape and believe his best days are yet to come? That consistency can be achieved?
There are two great situations for the Broncos and Paton.
One of those situations involves adding a veteran hedge behind Lock, believing in his development for at least the 2021 season, and if he does great, you look like a genius for keeping the pieces in place.
If he doesn’t look good in 2021, it’s not like Lock was Paton’s draft choice. The roster will almost undoubtedly be better overall, and the Broncos could attack the quarterback position again in 2022.
The risk involved in that is obviously passing on the 2021 draft class and the opportunity to trade for Matthew Stafford if that’s actually a possibility. What happens if the alternatives in 2022 are way worse, Lock doesn’t play well, and you passed on a number of options to upgrade the most important position with a new owner likely coming into the building as early as 2021-22?
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This is such a crucial decision from Paton, and that cannot be overstated. One way or another, the Broncos will be adding to the quarterback position in all likelihood, but how “aggressive” they are in adding talent to that spot is yet to be determined.