Denver Broncos: 4 most critical decisions facing new GM.
Soon, the Denver Broncos will hire a new general manager. The team will exhaust plenty of options and interview a number of candidates for the job, and rightfully so.
The Broncos are a team very much in transition right now from the top of the organization on down.
The ownership situation is unresolved for the time being, John Elway is moving up the chain of command but without his GM responsibilities, Matt Russell will no longer be around as the front office no.2, and obviously, a new general manager coming in almost always means a lot of “new” all over the team personnel-wise.
Despite the state of transition the team is in at the top, the Denver Broncos still have to put together a team for 2021 and there is too much talent on the roster to let ownership issues hinder the progress that has been made over the past three years in terms of loading up the roster with young players worth building around.
Whenever a new GM comes in and whoever that GM ends up being, they have some critical decisions to make. What are they?
Here are the top four.
1. Determine the fate of Drew Lock
Whatever general manager is hired for the Denver Broncos, they will need to spend a good amount of time on the clock with the holdovers from the previous staff determining the future of Drew Lock.
The new GM will need to pour over Lock’s film, evaluate him critically and fairly, and quickly come to a decision about what the team is going to do for 2021 and beyond.
When John Elway was hired in 2011, it would have been easy to take the top QB on his board with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow as the team’s top two quarterbacks he inherited from the previous regime. Elway stayed patient, stuck with that duo in 2011, and obviously planned on re-evaluating the next offseason.
Or maybe he just thought the Broncos would be bad enough to be in position for Andrew Luck, who knows?
One way or another, Elway’s patience paid off in the form of Peyton Manning through 2012 free agency. Year one does not have to be the year a new GM comes in and shakes up the QB spot, but there could be some interesting veteran names available like Dak Prescott (although the Cowboys will obviously work hard to keep him), Matthew Stafford, and Carson Wentz.
The availability of those players could at the very least give a GM reason to pause, but the thought of going after a young quarterback to replace a young quarterback while keeping the same coaching staff intact does not seem like the wisest move for a first-time GM, at least not without a real shot at Trevor Lawrence (who will go 1st overall to the Jaguars).
Drew Lock showed tremendous progress over the final five or six weeks of the season. He showed progress over the whole of the season but his command in Pat Shurmur’s offense and Shurmur’s innovation both ramped up as the season came to a close.
There are enough good and fixable things on tape to buy into Lock for one more season, but the new GM should feel free to bring in a talented hedge. My top option would be Mitch Trubisky, and if Champ Kelly winds up being the Broncos’ hire at GM, that could certainly end up happening.
Whether he’s cleaning house at QB or sticking with Drew, the new GM’s top priority will be choosing a 2021 path at quarterback and staying convicted to it.
Denver Broncos new GM top 4 most critical decisions
2. Figure out Von Miller’s future with the team
Von Miller sadly missed the entire 2020 season due to injury, but he should be mostly recovered at this point in time.
Miller is set to count $22.225 million against the salary cap in 2021, the highest figure on the team and a very tough-to-justify number when it’s the final year of his deal and he’s coming off of a season-ending injury.
Even if the Broncos leave Miller’s contract as it is, it wouldn’t be overly surprising, but in order to benefit the team, they could approach him about a restructure of the deal.
When the new league year starts in March, $7 million of guarantees will trigger in Miller’s contract, meaning the Broncos will have to make a decision about him ASAP. If the Broncos do not exercise Miller’s option, it would free up $18 million in salary cap space.
If Miller is amicable to a restructure, it could be a huge benefit to both he and the Broncos. He has expressed his desire to remain in Denver for the long haul, but for a player who has done so much in the NFL, how much of a pay cut can you really ask him to take?
Contending teams would undoubtedly line up for the chance to sign Miller, even at the age of 31. His situation is not too unlike DeMarcus Ware’s situation before Ware wound up signing with the Broncos.
It would be brutal to see Miller in another team’s uniform, and the new GM that comes in is going to determine whether that happens or not.
Denver Broncos GM top 4 most critical decisions
3. What to do with Justin Simmons
What are the Broncos going to do with Justin Simmons?
This has been a topic of discussion for over a year at this point considering the franchise tag was an obvious option for Simmons last year as well.
Simmons is coming off of a Pro Bowl season in 2020 and has been one of the Denver Broncos’ only consistent turnover creators in the past few seasons. Considering the defense was horrendous at creating turnovers in 2020, you would think the team would do whatever it takes to keep this guy around.
Regardless of who the GM is, Simmons is the type of player you want to invest in both on and off the field. It would be shocking if the Broncos didn’t find a way to keep him.
With the salary cap potentially decreasing to $175 million in 2021, giving Simmons the franchise tag is an option but would be a tough pill to swallow. He was paid over $11 million in 2020 on the tag and would get over $13 million in 2021 if he were tagged again.
Would Simmons even play on the tag?
If nothing else, it would buy the Broncos until July to negotiate a long-term deal with the star safety, who is understandably seeking to be paid like the top player he is at his position.
What’s more, not taking care of Simmons over the long-term sets a horrendous precedent for players who literally do everything right. The Broncos have more consistently paid big-money free agents who come from other teams, but a new regime coming in would need to recognize how much it means for all future negotiations that players like Simmons are taken care of if possible.
Letting Simmons walk would create a massive hole in Denver’s defense.
Denver Broncos new GM top 4 critical decisions
4. Decide what to do with 2020 acquisitions
The other major item on the agenda for the 2021 offseason for the new general manager will be what to do with some of the team’s top 2020 acquisitions.
Namely, what will they do with cornerback AJ Bouye, defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, and running back Melvin Gordon?
Bouye was suspended for six games after playing in only seven, battling injuries throughout his first year in Denver.
Casey was injured in the second game of the season and wasn’t able to make an impact really at all.
Gordon struggled with fumbles and got a DUI his first year in Denver, which could lead to a three-game suspension in 2021 as well as a void of the guarantees in his deal.
At this point in time, it’s hard to know what the void of guarantees could mean for Gordon’s future with the team. On the field, he proved his worth despite his early struggle with some fumbles and emerged as the clear RB1 both in skill and production.
Phillip Lindsay is a restricted free agent who should be back at a fairly low price, but Gordon’s situation could become complicated.
Bouye and Casey have significantly less complicated situations, it’s just a matter of whether the Broncos want to invest in either.
Bouye, who will be suspended the first two games of 2021, is set to count nearly $12 million against the salary cap with no dead money.
The Broncos would save nearly $13 million by letting go of Jurrell Casey, who is actually under contract for two more seasons.
Both Bouye and Casey were worthwhile risks in the 2020 offseason but counting a combined $25 million against the salary cap in 2021? There’s almost zero chance both guys are back in the fold at their current prices.
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It’s possible that both could be approached about short-term restructures, but it’s also possible that both players are let go and the Broncos are essentially no worse for wear having gotten little to no impact from either player in 2020.