Denver Broncos: Why it’s not crazy to think they can beat the Chiefs

KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 23: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs talks with Marquise Goodwin #11 of the San Francisco 49ers after the game at Arrowhead Stadium on September 23rd, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 23: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs talks with Marquise Goodwin #11 of the San Francisco 49ers after the game at Arrowhead Stadium on September 23rd, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 23: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers tried to avoid the sack attempt of Allen Bailey #97 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on September 23rd, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 23: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers tried to avoid the sack attempt of Allen Bailey #97 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on September 23rd, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Key Kansas City Chiefs defensive stats

The Chiefs have not been good defensively this year, to put it lightly.

They have missed 39 tackles this season as a team through three games, and are surrendering the third-most points in the NFL per game (30.7). They have also allowed 474 yards per game this season.

Furthermore, the Chiefs rank third-worst in the NFL in yards per play allowed (6.7) while the Broncos’ offense has the second most chunk plays in the league this season (18 plays of 20 or more yards). While Kansas City’s offense has scored far more points, the Broncos have actually made more explosive plays offensively.

Teams are moving the ball at will against the Chiefs, and the Broncos have a chance to exploit that. Though Denver has struggled with offensive consistency in their first three games, they were able to rack up 470 yards of total offense in the first week of the season against the Seattle Seahawks, and they have an opportunity for their best offensive output of the season against a Chiefs defense that has been porous, to say the least.

The Chiefs have been weak in some specific areas defensively where the Broncos have been very strong.

On 36 carries this season facing a loaded box (7.4 defenders, highest average in the league) Royce Freeman has the highest yards per carry average (4.2) of any back in the league facing a loaded box of that size.

More simply put, Freeman has been productive despite teams loading the box against the Broncos while the Chiefs have allowed 5.2 yards per rush, tied for 31st in the NFL. That doesn’t even take into account Phillip Lindsay’s running, or the added dynamic Emmanuel Sanders has brought for Denver now.

The Broncos, by the way, rank third in the NFL at 5.2 yards per carry.

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