Hot Takes: Scouting Denver Broncos Rookie QB Trevor Siemian

It was less than a month before the draft, and all of a sudden, John Elway and the Denver Broncos were sniffing around one of the most obscure quarterback prospects in the draft, a player no one was really thinking of — Northwestern’s Trevor Siemian.

John Elway is no stranger to pre-draft quarterback love. Prior to the 2012 NFL Draft, he went out to Arizona State with all his buddies and watched Brock Osweiler workout. The team ended up drafting Osweiler with a second round pick that year.

The following year, Elway’s crew was all over Miami (OH) prospect Zac Dysert, who wound up getting picked by the team in the 7th round.

In 2014, Elway and other members of the front office looked closely at quarterbacks, like Wyoming’s Brett Smith, but opted not to draft one.

With Siemian getting the ‘royal QB treatment’ so to speak, it was important to pay attention. The Broncos drafted him to ensure he didn’t go for another opportunity with a different team, and because they really valued everything he brought to the table.

I wanted to really dig in and see what kind of prospect Siemian was. After all, the Broncos already have three quarterbacks who have been with the team for at least two years or longer, and to bring in a guy like Siemian with a draft pick was a move that might have even thrown some people off.

Background

Siemian is a pretty soft-spoken, cool customer type of player. He seems pretty unflappable, which is often good for a quarterback, and it doesn’t seem like the moment is ever really too big for him.

The Florida native decided to go to Northwestern and major in communication studies, and he eventually became a co-captain for the football team and caught the eye of NFL scouts when he took over for Kain Coulter as the starting quarterback full-time in 2013.

2013 Season

Siemian’s junior season started off with a road trip to California, and then a home game against Syracuse, and one of the most efficient games of his college career.

2014 Season

After establishing himself as the starter in 2013, his junior season, he came back in 2014 and got off to a really rough start. They lost games against Cal and Northern Illinois, and Siemian’s numbers were pretty poor though he made some really nice plays along the way and a lot of his lack of statistical success was due to the fact that Northwestern’s receivers kept dropping the football.

Following those two games, Siemian put together some really gutsy performances. I found it really interesting that throughout his senior season, there wasn’t a single game that he threw more than one touchdown pass. He had a big game against Penn State where he rushed for three and accounted for four in total, but never a game where he threw more than one.

That said, after a tough loss to Northern Illinois Siemian and the rest of the Wildcats came up with a win against Western Illinois, and then a dominating road win in Happy Valley against Penn State. That’s a tough place to play no matter how good Penn State is, and Siemian more than held his own, posting his highest adjusted QBR of the season in that game.

His second highest adjusted QBR of the season came against Wisconsin the following week, where Northwestern came up with a huge victory. The Badgers were ranked 17th in the country at the time.

Following those two big wins, Siemian had a bit of a rough go, and the Wildcats wound up losing four straight games. The fourth consecutive loss was against Michigan, and the game ended in a way that Siemian will probably think about for the rest of his life.

There’s a reason this guy was picked in the 7th round, and that play certainly isn’t it, but we have to look at all the variables to see what kind of a player the Broncos are getting here. That play was just one in a career filled with good, bad, ugly, and otherwise.

I say that because, following that embarrassing loss to Michigan where Siemian received the brunt of the blame for Northwestern’s direction as a team that season, he came back the following week and responded with a road win against Notre Dame, perhaps the most notable of his career.

Northwestern beat Purdue the next week but Siemian went down with a torn ACL, his season and college career over.

Statistical Resume’

It’s not much to really write home about. Siemian played in a relatively conservative offense at Northwestern with some pro concepts that didn’t force him to throw the ball a heck of a lot, but there were games where he exceeded 45 or 50 pass attempts.

He finished his Northwestern career with 5,931 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions.

What I Liked

When I was watching Siemian play, there were a few things that really stood out to me.

1. He can drive the ball downfield.

This kid so effortlessly whips the ball to his receiver, it’s astounding to me. I remember checking out some of the minicamp highlights from the Broncos’ first rookie camp last week, and seeing Siemian throw the ball prompted me to go back and check the tape. This guy’s got a straight up laser for an arm.

I really liked his ability to throw the ball on a rope in the intermediate passing game, and his ability to step into throws and get the ball to his receiver on time and in a place where only he could catch it.

Despite not completing 60 percent of his passes in either season as a starter, I didn’t notice accuracy as an issue in film study. Yes, Siemian had misses just like any young quarterback does, but like I mentioned earlier, Northwestern’s receiver group really struggled with drops. You can see that for yourself just by watching the tape.

Even on balls that were caught, the receiver had to reel the ball back in after losing concentration and nearly dropping it.

There were also times when Siemian put the ball right on point and the receiver simply couldn’t make the play on the ball.

Another thing I really liked in film study of Siemian was his ability to put touch on the ball when needed. As strong of an arm as he showed on tape, there are always times throughout a game that quarterbacks need to put touch on the ball, get a little more air under it, or make the ball more ‘catchable’ in the screen game or short area passing game.

Siemian understands that concept and did a good job of executing every throw he had to make.

In addition to simply being a really good passer, I think Siemian is much more advanced than a lot of young quarterbacks at progressing through reads. You’ll see in one of those game tapes above that Siemian was meant to throw a quick flat route which was read very well by the opposing safety. Siemian notices the safety making his way toward the play, and he finds a receiver on the complete opposite side of the field going up the middle for a touchdown, and he adjusts his feet to make a perfect strike.

I also really liked Siemian’s ability to throw the ball under pressure. There were some plays where he knew he was going to get hit, and he made a gutsy throw and put the ball right where it had to be.

What I Didn’t Like

Siemian is no track star out there. He struggled with an ankle injury from the early part of the 2014 season, and even with that in consideration, he didn’t move overly well. I thought his ability to escape pressure was just OK, but nothing great.

There were times when Siemian had to get out of the pocket and he should have thrown the ball away, but he took a sack instead.

There were times also when Siemian would under throw, or make a poor decision with the ball and try to fit it into a space he shouldn’t have. You have to really question too why didn’t he put up bigger numbers? Was the Northwestern offense tailored just so that he couldn’t maximize what he was capable of doing out there?

Why did they lose so many games with an NFL talent at the QB position?

Those questions might not necessarily have answers at this point.

Then, there’s the question of what kind of durability does he have? He played through an ankle injury last year, and then tore his ACL. Is this guy made of glass?

Overall

I came away really impressed with this guy, actually. He has everything that NFL teams look for in a quarterback in terms of the requisite size, mental toughness, intelligence, arm strength, and every other skill you could look for. He’s moldable, and he’s a guy that can develop within the system as this season progresses.

The Broncos didn’t keep three quarterbacks on the roster last year, and I don’t know if I see that happening this year either. Siemian can take some time to learn while on the practice squad and keep healing his ACL injury as well. I don’t see any reason why he won’t be competing in camp in 2016 for at least a backup spot.

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