Trends and Insights on the Denver Broncos Week 7 Thursday Night Football Game

Heading into Thursday Night's game between the Denver Broncos and Sean Payton's old team, the New Orleans Saints, there are many key insights and facts surrounding the Week 7 matchup. After a tough divisional loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos are looking to quickly bounce back and get back to above .500 in Crescent City. 

With over 30% of the Saints' roster sidelined due to injuries, the Broncos are in a prime position to seize this opportunity and secure a crucial victory. 

As Bo Nix prepares for his first primetime game in the NFL, the spotlight is on him. Every move he makes on Thursday will be under intense scrutiny, especially with his head coach's emotional return. 

Nonetheless, here are some key insights and trends (all via NFL Pro) about the Broncos-Saints matchup in Week 7.

Interesting trends and insights for Broncos heading into Week 7

Bo Nix and the Offense 

Nix has been getting criticized for anything he does (whether right or wrong) on the football field, and he has been doing everything for this offense and all of its deficiencies. 

This season, Bo Nix has covered 9.6 yards on average for each dropback, which is the second-most in the NFL. To take it a step further, Nix is third among quarterbacks with 4,684 yards gained on offensive plays.

We have seen Nix run around in the pocket while being pressured, escaping, and scrambling for the first down. This further proves that he has been running for his life and trying to make something out of nothing to keep this offense on the field and productive. 

To tie this together, Garrett Bolles, Quinn Meinerz, and Ben Powers all rank in the top six in pressure rate allowed. The offensive line has allowed a little over 30% in allowed pressure.

There has been a noticeable improvement with Nix and his play, but it also shows statistically. Nix recorded his highest-ever total EPA of +3.3 on dropbacks in Week 6 vs. LAC. As NFL Pro stated, “Nix has steadily improved over the course of the season, generating two of his three highest dropback success rates and completion percentages over expected of the season during Weeks 5 and 6.”

The talk of the town has been about how bad the wide receivers have been for Nix and not making plays for the rookie QB. Despite Nix buying time and allowing more time for the receivers to get open, they still struggle to help Nix. 

Nix leads the NFL in attempting a pass outside of the pocket on all his attempts at 21.7%. He has recorded 278 passing yards while doing so, which also leads the league too. 

When it comes to running the ball, Nix has been the Broncos best rusher. He has scrambled for 13 first downs, which is second-most in the NFL, and +5 first downs over expected, which is most in the league. 

Javonte Williams has been inconsistent, to say the least, and he has been getting the bulk of the carries. It will not shock anyone at all if Jaleel McLaughlin and Audrice Estime start taking carries away from Williams with his inconsistent play. FB Michael Burton is also needed to see more of in the run game. 

The reason why?

The Broncos nearly double their success rate (63.2%) when Burton is on the field. The explosive play rate is also noticeably increased as Denver has a 21.1% rate when he’s on the field, compared to the 9.8% when he is not. The success rate is also noticeably low when Burton is off the field at 36.3%.

The Saints have been a poor tackling team thus far, allowing 370 yards from missed tackles, which leads the league. 

New Orleans's defense allows a good chunk of yards after the catch, something Denver’s receivers lack doing. Only two teams have allowed over 1,000 yards after the catch. The Saints are one of them at 1,018 yards. The 7.2 yards after the catch per reception is also the second-highest in the league.

Zach Allen and this Broncos' Defense

This Denver team's strength is the defense, which is anchored by Pat Surtain II (who is OUT with a concussion) and Zach Allen. 

Zach Allen has created 31 pressures this season when positioned as an interior defensive lineman, nine more than the next closest pass rusher. He has been an absolute beast on that defensive line and has made the other players along that line better. 

"“Malcolm Roach (2nd, 9.1%), Zach Allen (3rd, 8.1%), and D.J. Jones (5th, 8.0%) have recorded 3 of the top 5 run stuff rates by defensive tackles this season (min. 75 run defense snaps). Roach has generated the 2nd-highest run stop rate among DTs (15.6%, min. 75 run defense snaps). Jones has recorded a 17.0% run tackle rate (T-6th, min. 75 run defense snaps).”"

- NFL Pro

Justin Strnad has done an excellent job in replacing the production of Alex Singleton so far, as he recorded a 20% run-stop rate over the last three games. Surprisingly, this is the second-highest rate among defenders (minimum of 50 run defense snaps). His 12.3% run stuff rate ranks best in the NFL among any defenders, too. 

The Saints' offense has had their designed runs outside of the tackles at 72.8%. Thankfully, this season, the Broncos have given up the second-lowest explosive run rate (6.4%) and the third-lowest success rate (28.2%) on outside-designed runs. The Broncos' defense ranks second in the NFL (in terms of EPA lost by offenses) against outside-designed runs.

The Broncos are well-known for their blitzes, as no one dials it up more than Vance Joseph with this Denver defense. With Derek Carr out, rookie Spencer Rattler will make his second start of his career.

Rattler went 6 of 13 on blitzes from Tampa Bay last week with 100 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception. This Denver defense will dial up all the blitzes and make it as uncomfortable as possible for the rookie on a short week of preparation. 

The Broncos' defense should dominate this Saints offense with some significant injuries on the New Orleans side of things and based on a pure matchup standpoint, too.