Entering the 2022 NFL season, the AFC West was expected to be the best division in all of football. Fans and analysts alike were thrilled about the development of Justin Herbert, the addition of Russell Wilson, and the addition of Davante Adams in Las Vegas. All of those teams were meant to give the Kansas City Chiefs fits and provide football fans with the best possible TV on a weekly basis. Unfortunately for the fans and the teams involved, the 2022 season couldn't have been more underwhelming.
Well, for everyone but the Chiefs, that is.
Because the 2022 season was so disappointing for the majority of the AFC West -- the Chargers completely choking in the playoffs, the Raiders failing to return to the playoffs, and the Denver Broncos firing head coach Nathaniel Hackett before his first NFL season was over -- expectations have been completely reset for 2023.
What is the job security like for each AFC West head coach in 2023? Are any in danger of being on the dreaded hot seat? Let's take a look at each team in the division, starting with the reigning Super Bowl champions...
AFC West head coaches on the hot seat in 2023?
1. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Job security: Bulletproof
The Kansas City Chiefs have become annoyingly good under head coach Andy Reid, who is now considered a living legend of sorts. Andy Reid isn't quite as accomplished just yet as Bill Belichick, but I think in the coaching world, he's achieved the same level of job security as Belichick. As in to say, if Andy Reid is ever leaving the Kansas City Chiefs, it will probably be on his own accord.
The Chiefs have become the modern-day NFL version of the Patriots dynasty and if you think that's hyperbole, you're just in denial at this point. The Chiefs are a well-oiled machine. They have the best quarterback in the league and Patrick Mahomes is easily the unanimous best player in the NFL and it's not remotely close. There are teams that can contend with the Chiefs, and they have, but it takes so much to beat this team.
2. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Job security: Hottest seat in the AFC West
The reality here is that I think there are two truths. The perception from the outside looking in at Brandon Staley and the Los Angeles Chargers is that Staley is clearly on the hot seat. The Chargers suffered an excruciating loss in the playoffs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Staley has been squarely to blame for many of this team's shortcomings the last couple of years.
With that being said, the Chargers' actions speak louder than any words, here. Yes, it looks like Staley may have been forced into finding a new offensive coordinator, which the Chargers did when they fired Joe Lombardi and hired Kellen Moore from the Dallas Cowboys.
After the Chargers' playoff collapse against the Jaguars, the masses of football fans were almost certain that Staley was going to be fired and that the Chargers would go ahead and hire Sean Payton. Many Broncos fans were absolutely positive the team wasn't getting Payton as their next head coach because they were positive the Chargers were getting him.
There's definitely a tension between what the Chargers are actually doing here and the general NFL fan's perception, but I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I think the Chargers are sticking their necks out for Brandon Staley and I think he's got one more year to get this team to a point where they feel like they are truly progressing. Making the playoffs last year was progression in itself, but even just making the playoffs in 2023 might not be enough to keep Staley's job safe.
I think if the Chargers stink horribly early in the year, like in a really bad way, Staley could potentially be fired in-season. But I would say that is much more likely to happen after the season than anything.
3. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
Job security: Seat isn't hot, but it's warm (or should be)
Josh McDaniels's job security is sort of tough to peg at this point. The Las Vegas Raiders lured McDaniels out of the offensive coordinator ranks and they knew what they were getting into. This is the guy who objectively ruined the Denver Broncos. He completely screwed over the Indianapolis Colts.
He's allegedly grown from those experiences but judging by the fruit, how much has McDaniels changed, really? He alienated Derek Carr last year and the Raiders were forced to release Carr this offseason. The Raiders have obviously completely reshaped the roster from what it was during Jon Gruden's tenure, but the "boldest' moves thus far have been cutting Derek Carr and trading Darren Waller for pennies on the dollar.
There were undoubtedly playoff expectations last year for Las Vegas, but they fell short, and McDaniels is going to get most of the fingers pointed his direction for it. Now, the Raiders have a real situation on their hands with Jimmy Garoppolo projected to start at QB...if he's healthy enough to do so.
The biggest thing McDaniels may have going for him is other advocates in the building. Even if the Raiders struggle, GM Dave Ziegler and new part-owner Tom Brady might be willing to stick their necks out for McDaniels.
Ultimately, I think there are simply too many advocates for McDaniels to be truly entering this year on the hot seat in Las Vegas. But if this season goes poorly, patience will start wearing thin, especially because McDaniels' stamp is all over the roster.
4. Sean Payton, Denver Broncos
Job security: Plenty of time to turn it around
If Andy Reid is not in the same zip code as a hot seat, I think it's fair to say Sean Payton is not in the same neighborhood as a hot seat. The Denver Broncos have cycled through coach after coach since Gary Kubiak was forced to step down due to health reasons.
First, it was Vance Joseph. Then Vic Fangio. Then Nathaniel Hackett.
The Broncos have gotten made fun of for their quarterback carousel, but the head coach carousel is more embarrassing and less excusable. The new ownership group in Denver set out to make the most educated hire possible in the 2023 offseason, but it always felt like the list was going to be more limited to the experienced candidates.
Getting Sean Payton was no small task for the Walton-Penner Ownership Group. It required permission from the league, permission from the Saints, and a genuine interest from Payton himself. It required facilitating a trade. It required negotiating likely one of the richest head
Time will tell if the investment was worth it for this Denver Broncos team, but because of all that has been invested in Sean Payton, I think it's safe to say his seat is nowhere near hot, warm, or anything. I don't think there's anything that could realistically happen in 2023 to compromise Payton's job security for 2024, either. He should be considered one of the "safest" coaches in the league heading into the 2023 season.