Russell Wilson is going to have a bounce-back season. Let's predict his stat line for every game of the 2023 campaign. I don't necessarily think that Wilson is going to fill up the stat sheet every week and throw for 40 touchdowns and 4,000 yards, but he certainly is in an offensive situation that would allow him to be very efficient.
I have faith that one of the most dedicated and stubborn athletes I've ever watched play can return to his previous form. Wilson is addicted to winning, and I'm not sure there's a current NFL player who works harder and longer than Wilson.
Let's be honest with ourselves; if any player in the NFL can rebound, it's Wilson, and if any coach can help him rebound, it's Sean Payton.
Let's undertake a daunting task and predict Russell Wilson's stat line for every game of the 2023 season.
Predicting Russell Wilson's stat line for every game in 2023
Week 1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Denver Broncos open up the 2023 season at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. On paper, Denver has a huge advantage between their offense and the Raiders' defense, especially the secondary.
Vegas' projected starting secondary is Nate Hoobs, Marcus Epps, Tre'von Moehrig, and Duke Shelley.
Lol.
Honestly, Russell Wilson should have a good day through the air against the Raiders. I think Denver is going to go into most games with the intention of first establishing the run, but I also think they'll try to take advantage of some favorable matchups.
Week 1: 20/28, 250 yards, 3 touchdowns
Week 2 vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders are in a similar situation. This should be an easier time than their week one matchup. Like the Raiders, Washington does struggle in the secondary, but their defensive front is nasty. I think Denver may have a hard time establishing the run like they want in week two, but I don't anticipate Wilson having much trouble doing damage through the air.
The Broncos have a good bit of pass-catching ability, and I don't think Washington has enough players to keep Denver at bay here.
Week 2: 25/34, 264 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 3 @ Miami Dolphins
This is the first legitimate test for the Broncos in 2023. The Dolphins went 9-8 last year and squeezed into the playoffs. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are going to be a handful to deal with.
On defense, they added Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey. They also have former Bronco Bradley Chubb and another stud cornerback in Xavien Howard. I would anticipate the Broncos' offense struggling a bit in what could be a close game.
What I am glad about is that Denver should still have an ever so slight coaching advantage here.
Week 3: 21/33, 212 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Russell Wilson through weeks 1-3: 66/95, 726 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, 108.5 rating
Predicting Russell Wilson's stat line for every game in 2023
Week 4 @ Chicago Bears
Denver then travels to Chicago to face the Bears in week four. Chicago is an up-and-coming team with talented players all throughout their roster. Their defense was among one of the worst in the NFL in 2023 and the jury is still out on Matt Eberflus and his head coaching ability in the NFL.
I think the Bears can take a huge step this year, but they also could be a year away from competing. Denver should win this game but Chicago is a tough place to play.
Week 4: 18/27, 220 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Week 5 vs. New York Jets
Perhaps their hardest test of the season thus far, the Broncos get a home matchup against the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. Rodgers was traded to the Jets this offseason and their fourth-ranked defense from a year ago is likely going to be just as good.
Denver lost to the Jets last year and will have a heck of a time beating them this year. I don't think Russell Wilson is going to be able to carve up the Jets' defense like some of their previous opponents.
Week 5: 21/30, 225 yards
Week 6 @ Kansas City Chiefs
Russell Wilson did play reasonably well against the Chiefs in both matchups in 2022:
49/74, 469 yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions.
He wasn't great against them, but the Chiefs are typically a league-average defense that sacks the QB a lot. They have a weird defensive dynamic.
I do think Denver beats KC in one of these matchups in 2023, as Denver lost both of their matchups against them last year by a combined nine points.
I don't think KC has anyone in the secondary who is going to be a huge threat, and I like Payton to out plan Chiefs' DC Steve Spagnuolo.
Week 6: 25/36, 249 yards, 2 touchdowns
Russell Wilson through week 6: 130/188, 1,420 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 102.7 rating
Predicting Russell Wilson's stat line for every game in 2023
Week 7 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers defense seems to never perform up to the way it should. Their defense is littered with first-round picks. It's also important to consider the offense here as well. Jordan Love is an unknown and the Packers might not have much to work with on offense, so Denver could take control of this game and might not need to throw the ball all over the yard.
I think this is a win for the Broncos and an efficient but not flashy day for Russell wilson/
Week 7: 21/27, 215 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Denver is going to win this game. They are finally going to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. I can feel it in my bones. It'll be a close game that'll require Wilson to play lights out, and he has that in him.
The Broncos' plethora of pass catchers are going to be the difference maker here as the Broncos will go up 28-24 late in the fourth quarter on a touchdown pass to unexpected contributor Adam Trautman.
Week 8: 26/36, 265 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 9 is the Broncos' bye week.
Week 10 @ Buffalo Bills
Oh boy. This one is going to be a tough matchup. Playing the Buffalo Bills in their stadium in primetime will be a tough game to win. Once again, Denver does have the advantage with their coaching and they do have more weapons than the Bills.
I am worried that the Bills' stout defense is going to shutdown the Denver Broncos. This game could quickly get out of control. I think the Broncos drop this game as the Bills pull away in the second half.
Week 10: 22/33, 186 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Russell Wilson through week 10: 199/284, 2,086, 13 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 101.9 rating
Predicting Russell Wilson's stat line for every game in 2023
Week 11 vs. Minnesota Vikings
This could be an interesting matchup. The Vikings went 13-4 last year but had a negative point differential and fired their defensive coordinator in favor of Brian Flores. Flores is a great DC who should improve the unit but I also don't see this Vikings' defense as anything better than average at the moment.
Denver has advantages across the board in my opinion. However, the Vikings' recent history of winning close games could come into play here.
Week 11: 25/37, 276 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
Week 12 vs. Cleveland Browns
Perhaps one of the biggest unknowns in the NFL is what Deshaun Watson will do in 2023. Will be return to his normal ways? He struggled quite a bit in his limited action with his new team in 2022. Kevin Stefanski is a fine head coach and the Browns have a solid roster overall, but I don't think they're a dangerous team.
Denzel Ward is going to be a handful to deal with in the secondary, as is Greg Newsome.
Week 12: 21/33, 228 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Week 13 @ Houston Texans
If the Broncos suffer a bad loss in 2023, it'll come against the Houston Texans, who I believe to be an underrated team. I really like the players they have on defense and I think DeMeco Ryans will be the latest installment of a Kyle Shanahan disciple having success as a HC in the NFL.
I think the Texans are going to be a tough out most every week. They were last year when Denver played them at home. The secondary also takes one away from Russell Wilson in a surprisingly close game.
Week 13: 22/30, 230 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Week 14 @ Los Angeles Chargers
If nothing else, one thing that has remained the same during this tough stretch of Broncos' football is the team usually figuring out a way to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers. In their second matchup against the Chargers in 2022, Wilson threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chargers have the talent to make a deep playoff run, but their Chargers' curse and the up and down nature of Brandon Staley might prevent them from doing too much damage. LA could very easily win this game, but I don't think this is a threatening team.
Week 14: 24/37, 227 yards, 1 touchdown
Russell Wilson through week 14: 291/421, 3,047 yards, 18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 98.2 rating
With just four games to go, Russell Wilson is enjoying a solid bounceback year thus far. He's limited the turnovers and has already eclipsed his touchdown total through the air from last year.
Predicting Russell Wilson's stat line for every game in 2023
Week 15 @ Detroit Lions
This is an interesting matchup. The Lions fielded one of the NFL's best offenses in 2022 but also had one of the league's worst defenses. They overhauled their secondary which included additions of CJ Gardner-Johnson, Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and Brian Branch.
The Lions could be a deadly team to deal with in 2023 and they are my pick to win the NFC North. This might be a coinflip game but I do think this matchup has the potential to be very high scoring.
Week 15: 30/39, 321 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 16 vs. New England Patriots
While I don't think the Patriots are going to be that threatening of a team in 2023, they'll have a top notch defense which could give the Broncos some fits. Bill Belichick is a defensive genius. Sean Payton, though, is an offensive genius.
I think this is a game where the Patriots hang around for the most part in the first half but Denver ends up pulling away. They just have more firepower and high-end talent on offense than the Patriots do, and they should have a pretty significant advantage at quarterback.
Week 16: 21/29, 224 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
If Denver only wins one divisional game in 2023, it'll be their home game against the LA Chargers. Hopefully, Denver is vying for a playoff spot at this point or has already clinched one. You'll notice that I haven't really predicted Russell Wilson to truly pop off yet.
I think that changes in this matchup. Last year, Wilson threw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns when they faced the Chargers at home. Mr. Unlimited will break through for this game and light up the stat sheet.
Week 17: 29/35, 348 yards, 3 touchdowns
Week 18 @ Las Vegas Raiders
They play the Raiders in Week 1 and Week 18, which is quite the split. I don't think the Raiders are a playoff team in 2023 and at this point, they should be eliminated from playoff contention. What would be awesome is Denver having clinched a playoff spot already.
Or, perhaps, they're in a situation where they need to win to clinch a spot in the postseason. As I noted in week one, their secondary isn't great so I think Wilson can have a solid day through the air to end the 2023 season.
Week 18: 23/33, 249 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
Russell Wilson's 2023 stat line through week 18: 394/557, 4,189 yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 101.9 rating.
Alright, there we have it. Russell Wilson's 2023 bounceback season. I do think he limits his interceptions greatly and is a bit more potent through the air than he was in 2022. This is going to be a 10-7 playoff team built on a strong run game, sound defense, and efficient QB play.