Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 16

A full betting preview for the New England Patriots' Week 16 matchup against the Denver Broncos.

Dec 16, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) warms up before
Dec 16, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) warms up before / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
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The Denver Broncos have lost two out of their last three games after previously winning five straight games to get them into playoff contention. Denver hopes returning home this week to play the New England Patriots will bring them good vibes and a win.

The Broncos enter this week's matchup on a four-game home winning streak, where they've defeated the Chiefs, Browns, and Packers. Denver will face a Patriots' squad that fought hard last week against Kansas City but came up short.

The Broncos opened as 5.5-point home favorites over the Patriots, but the number has moved to 6.5.

Below, we will break down this Week 16 matchup in the AFC and give our best bet!

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Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 2-4 ATS on the road this season
  • The UNDER is 9-4 in New England’s last 13 games
  • Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last six games vs. AFC East opponents
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the Broncos’ last nine games

Patriots vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

  • Tyrone Wheatley Jr. - OT - IR-R
  • Rhamondre Stevenson - RB - Questionable
  • Juju Smith-Schuster - WR - Questionable
  • Trent Brown - OT - Questionable
  • Cole Strange - G - IR

Broncos Injury Report

  • Nik Bonitto - LB - Questionable
  • Greg Dulcich - TE - IR-R

Patriots vs. Broncos How to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 24
  • Game Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
  • How to Watch (TV): NFL Network
  • Patriots Record: 3-11
  • Broncos Record: 7-7

Patriots vs. Broncos Key Players to Watch

New England Patriots

Bailey Zappe: The 24-year-old Zappe is coming off a solid effort against the Chiefs last week. The second-year quarterback completed 23-of-31 passes for 180 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Since being named the starting QB in Week 13, Zappe has completed 65.5% of his passes for 561 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. However, he’s also been sacked 11 times, which is less than ideal. Zappe will try to lead New England to their second road win in their last three games on Christmas Eve.

Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson: Wilson and the Broncos’ offense struggled in last week’s loss to the Lions, as they only mustered 17 points and 287 total yards. Wilson completed 56.3% of his passes for 223 yards and had two total touchdowns. The 35-year-old quarterback should bounce back at home this weekend, where he’s completing 66.3% of his passes for 1,382 yards, 13 TDs, and an interception.

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

The Broncos return to the friendly confines of Empower Field, where they have won four straight games. Denver is outscoring their opponents by 8.7 points per game during this stretch and is 3-1 against the spread. 

Denver will hope for a better effort from their defense, which allowed five touchdowns from QB Jared Goff. The good news for the Broncos is that the Patriots’ offense isn’t as potent as Detroit, and Zappe isn’t at the level of Goff. However, New England showed us last week that they can hit on some big plays and force turnovers.

The Patriots’ offense is starting to show some life, as they’ve scored 38 total points in the last two games. This is a huge improvement from what we saw from them between Weeks 10-13, where they only scored 13 combined points. The Patriots will be playing a Broncos’ defense, which is allowing 20.1 points per game at home. 

The Broncos’ offense has a tough challenge ahead of them as the Patriots’ defense does not give up many points or yards per play (4.8 – fifth in the NFL) this season. However, Vance Joseph’s defense will get after Zappe and keep this low-scoring New England offense in check to cover the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.