The Denver Broncos might not have to do any sort of rebuilding next offseason. Rather, they might be able to again be active in free agency and could put the finishing touches on a future playoff roster. A few short weeks ago, many of us were calling for the Broncos to rebuild.
The defense was so bad, perhaps the worst in NFL history through the first month, that a total firesale at the trade deadline seemed likely. However, the Broncos' defense has actually been excellent over the last month. Sure, the defense does have some aging veterans that will need to be replaced, but there is a lot more to hang our hats on with this team.
And honestly, I don't think Sean Payton wants to rebuild anything-- he's got a Hall of Fame resume and is almost 60 years old. Payton probably isn't going to coach more than another five to seven years, and surely would want to avoid a lean, rebuilding year if possible. There will surely be some roster tweaking that will happen next offseason.
Let's dive into the team's current projected cap space and how they could create more.
How much cap space will the Denver Broncos have in 2024?
According to overthecap.com, the Denver Broncos are projected to have -$14,071,955 in effective cap space. The website defines effective cap space as "Effective Cap Space: the cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class to its roster."
The Denver Broncos will be forced to make some moves to give themselves some breathing room. And this team isn't signing no one in free agency. They will surely extend players and bring in a few veterans if I had to guess. We've seen many teams across the NFL be very aggressive in free agency, prompting many of us to say things like "Cap space isn't real!"
Well yes, it is, but what is clear is that teams have found more creative ways to create cap space and to sign big-name players. Just look at the San Francisco 49ers; they have a ton of huge contracts on their roster; they recently paid Nick Bosa and have other huge contracts like Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, taking on Chase Young's rookie contract, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. I get that the team isn't paying their QB, but man, the 49ers have a ton of huge contracts on their books.
The Denver Broncos do as well, and they will be in a cap crunch next year because of it. I guess depending on how Payton views this roster, he could restructure some contracts, which essentially pushes the heaviest cap hits down the line. He could also cut some players as well. There really isn't a perfect formula here, and I am not a cap expert.
However, we can use overthecap.com to see what kind of cap space the Denver Broncos can free up in 2024.
Can the Denver Broncos create enough cap space?
The answer is yes; every team, to an extent, can create cap space. Unloading huge contracts and restructuring are two very common ways to do this. Let's go over some ways the Broncos can do this.
This will not be an exhaustive list, but rather the realistic ways I believe the team can go about this:
CUT Jarrett Stidham in 2024: saves $5 million
CUT DJ Jones in 2024: saves $10 million
CUT Tim Patrick in 2024: saves $10 million
CUT Luke Wattenberg in 2024: saves $985,000
CUT Delarrin Turner-Yell in 2024: saves $985,000
TRADE Justin Simmons in 2024: saves $14.5 million
TRADE Jerry Jeudy in 2024: saves $12.987 million
Total cap savings: $54,457,000
OK, so let's break this down some more. Jarrett Stidham should not have been signed to a two-year $10 million contract. The Denver Broncos can go cheaper and better with their backup QB. DJ Jones is a good run stuffer but doesn't provide enough juice on the defensive interior. I think he's a cut candidate. Cutting Tim Patrick but bringing him back on a cheaper, one-year deal makes sense. He's missed the last two seasons, including this one.
It doesn't make sense for him to try and get more money elsewhere, since he probably won't. Cutting Luke Wattenberg and Delarrin Turner-Yell are just shedding low-quality backup players that could be filled with other fresh draftees or low-end free agents. Trading Justin Simmons might happen if the Broncos don't really go anywhere in 2023. Simmons is likely entering the last few seasons of his career and might want to actually experience winning football.
And I do think a team would take on Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year option. It's not too expensive and there might be teams truly desperate for WR help. The Broncos could also do more here or swap moves I made with other ones. They could trade Courtland Sutton and Garett Bolles. They could also extend one or both of them for cap relief.
They could restructure Zach Allen's deal for some serious cap relief as well. A restructuring of Russell Wilson's deal saves over $10 million. And on a lower scale, doing some work with players still on their rookie deals can also free up cap space.
As you can see from the chart above, the Denver Broncos could realistically save over $50 million on their 2024 cap number, giving them anywhere from $40-$50 million in 2024 to spend in free agency if they wanted to. You see, I do think the "Broncos don't have cap space" argument is not a good one. The team can free up tens of millions. And sure, if the Broncos did these exact moves that I laid out, they'd have that many more roster holes, but I'd argue that each one of those players outside of Justin Simmons aren't really players who are a net positive to the team right now.
Final thoughts...
The Denver Broncos can stand firm and not do much next offseason. Maybe this team will continue their resurgence and manage to finish with a winning record and even a playoff berth. In that case, Payton may want to not change much and may just want to bring the gang back to build on what was done in 2023.
Conversely, Payton could see enough from his core that he may feel inclined to try and sign some high-impact free agents, signaling an all-in approach. Guys like Danielle Hunter, Chris Jones, and Leonard Williams are all projected to be free agents in 2024. Signing a high-end FA would signal that the Broncos are wanting to make a run at the playoffs in 2024.
The team could also bottom out in the second half of the season. In this case, Sean Payton and George Paton may have to undergo a more thorough roster reconstruction. You'd likely see guys like Justin Simmons, Courtland Sutton, Garett Bolles, and others no longer on the roster. The last nine games of the 2023 NFL Season are huge for the Denver Broncos.
The team has won two games in a row and looks like they're finding their footing on defense. The unit has drastically improved and looks much more like the 2022 version. The offense is also efficient and putting up enough points at the moment. The team has been on their bye week in Week 9, so the roster has been able to get healthy and take advantage of the break.