Russell Wilson needs to have a bounce-back year in 2023 or may find himself out of a starting job come 2024. What are realistic expectations for the QB in 2023? The 2023 season is going to be the most important of Russell Wilson's football career.
He's approaching his mid-30s and played the worst football of his life in 2022. Given his style of play, it's not crazy to think that Wilson might be declining rapidly. I'd like to think not, obviously, and I truly do believe Wilson has some great football left in him, but will it be great enough.
What are some realistic expectations for the Super Bowl champion in 2023?
Denver Broncos: Realistic expectations for Russell Wilson in 2023
Russell Wilson has had quite a bit of variation in terms of his statistical output during his career. In five of his 11 seasons, his touchdown passes have been in the 20s. In four of those 11 years, it's been in the 30s. He had one year hitting the 40 touchdown mark and one year under 20 TD passes.
In terms of his yardage, he's had seven years where he's thrown in the 3000s, and four years where he's thrown in the 4000s. In terms of passer rating, he's had seven seasons of a 100+ passer rating, three years of a 90+ rating, and one year where his rating fell under 90.
Statistically, the most likely outcome for Russell Wilson in 2023 if his career trends hold is throwing 20-29 touchdown passes, 3000-3,999 yards and passing for a rating at or above 100. How many years during his career has he hit all three of those milestones?
He had that output range in 2012, 2013, and 2021. So, let's take the averages of those three years.
In those three years, he averaged 26 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 3,196 yards, and a 101.4 rating. If Wilson had this exact output in 2023, we'd likely be looking at a Broncos' team that greatly limited Wilson's responsibility as a passer and greatly emphasized the run. Passing for 3,196 yards averages out to just 188 yards a game.
Could this be a realistic season for Russell Wilson in 2023? Well, the pass catchers may not like not having a ton of action or a bunch of stats, but statistically, that is his most likely output based on his career averages, and I think those numbers are reasonable based on the offensive identity of the Broncos.