I think the Denver Broncos plan has been made abundantly clear ever since free agency started, and the way I see it, it's a four-step process. Let's go over these steps in depth. While I was hopeful that the Broncos were planning on being aggressive but calculated in free agency, I am now much more hopeful of their rebuilding plan.
And the plan can really take off in 2025. I think that year could be the soonest this team can return to their Super Bowl glory. I have identified it as being a four-step process with deliberate action within each one. I think this can end up being a rather quick rebuilding process, too.
I don't think the Broncos are going to stink or endure a horrible losing season in 2024. Frankly, I think the Broncos can show a ton of promise in 2024 and can begin to break out in 2025. So, this article is going to outline the four-step process that the Denver Broncos need to follow if they want to return to their former Super Bowl glory.
Step 1: Draft a rookie QB that fits what Sean Payton is desiring
This is the first step, obviously not counting this free agency period, to get the Broncos back to respectability. There is no long-term QB answer on the roster, and all along, the plan might have been a quarterback room of a rookie draft pick + Jarrett Stidham.
Stidham is fine; he's nothing special as a backup but can serve as a QB2/mentor. He's an average backup QB and isn't going to be a massive liability if he needs to play. Well, Denver needs to come away with a QB in the 2024 NFL Draft, and Sean Payton seems confident in their ability to find one:
"Payton, though, believes the Broncos should have an advantage in evaluating those traits.Sean Payton / denverbroncos.com
We'll be really good at this, and I think, to some degree, we're glad that a lot of people aren't; Payton said."
I mean, it's hard to argue that one of the best offensive coaches of all-time is confident that his team can find a franchise QB. And frankly, I personally could not care less who that QB is. If it's JJ McCarthy, great! If it's Bo Nix, awesome! If it's someone else, that's amazing too!
I trust Sean Payton and what he desires in a franchise QB, and obviously, this plan hinges on the rookie QB being a hit. If he's a bust, then the rest of this plan is redundant, but I think you all know that.
Now, step two!
Step 2: Field a respectable team in '24, win 8 or 9 games and show progress on offense
There were some parts of the 2023 Denver Broncos to like. The run blocking was strong, and the defense really came on in the second half of the season. The special teams unit was also nothing short of excellent, and just as an overall product, the 2023 Broncos were a solid, competitive football team, being able to notch wins against a plethora of playoff teams.
I think in 2024 with a rookie quarterback, you have to expect the team to build on their 2023 progress. The hope is that the defense does not start out on a historically bad pace like they did in 2023. A stronger run defense would actually fix quite a bit with that unit.
And honestly, how likely is it that the defense starts out 2024 as the worst in NFL history like they did in 2023? I just don't see that being realistic, especially with Vance Joseph now in year two. The next part of this equation is the QB being a stronger fit within the offense, which should help the running and passing game.
Russell Wilson was not a good fit in Sean Payton's offense, but I think we all know that. Even a rookie QB can end up being more efficient than Russell Wilson was in 2023. Being able to play on time and especially being able to use the middle of the field is going to be huge for Payton.
Both Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy are two quarterbacks who can do just that. Being able to field a more efficient passing game is going to force opposing defenses to pin their ears back a bit more, allowing for a better chance to also be an efficient running team.
I think if these things happen, the Broncos can get into that eight or nine-win range. If it all goes well, I don't see how the Broncos can't enjoy the shocking success that the 2023 Houston Texans had. Truly, this all hinges on the rookie QB being a homerun.
And if he is, and if the defense can simply be a top-12 unit for a majority of the season, this is going to be a solid football team, likely hovering between 8-10 wins in 2024.
Now, step three!
Step 3: Enter offseason with a mountain of cap space and replenished draft capital
According to Over The Cap, the Denver Broncos are going to have over $100 million in cap space in 2025, which is a huge number. Now yes, there are other teams who are expected to have more, but you have to figure how many of those teams will be in a more urgent situation to win and the potential that they don't have as much as the Broncos.
Even with the Broncos having the Russell Wilson dead money still impacting them in 2025, the team is going to have money to spend. And when you look across the roster and what could happen between now and then, the Broncos may not have many huge contracts.
They aren't going to have a massive QB contract, and may only be investing significant money into their offensive line, which is a good unit to do that. All in all, the Broncos are likely to be rich with cap space and draft picks.
The team will have a second-round pick in 2025, unless that somehow gets traded. Right now, according to prosportstransactions.com, the Broncos have a first, second, third, fourth, and two sixth-round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. This does not count any capital that the team could get by trading players or even compensatory picks.
The Broncos could acquire several more picks with those two avenues benefitting the team. Cap space and draft picks being stocked up is the third step of this plan.
Step 4: Be aggressive in 2025 free agency and 2025 NFL Draft
Strapped with a ton of cap space and draft capital, the Denver Broncos last step of this plan is to be aggressive in free agency and in the 2025 NFL Draft. If the first three steps of this plan are realized, the Broncos will be a team poised to break out in 2025 on the hopes that their encouraging rookie QB makes the year two leap, which so many other QBs have done before.
The QB entering his second season obviously means he is still on a rookie contract, so the Broncos would be wise to take advantage of that. Many teams who have recently made the Super Bowl have had QBs on rookie deals, which gives them the opportunity to spend and load up on other positions.
Now, when I say be aggressive, I am not saying that the team needs to be reckless, rather be aggressive but calculated with the free agency additions. The 2025 free agency market is obviously not known yet, and it won't be known for a long while, but there will surely be a ton of talent available, and if the Broncos have a strong 2024 season with a rookie quarterback, teams will want to come on board.
Just look at the 2023 Houston Texans; they went 10-7 with their own rookie QB, came into the offseason with a ton of cap space, and have made smart free agency decisions in an obvious plan to load up for 2024 and beyond.
The 2023 Houston Texans and 2024 Denver Broncos can ideally end up being the same team. This is the hope, and this is the four-step plan for the Broncos to return to Super Bowl glory.