Denver Broncos could be perfect spot for major QB trade

The Denver Broncos could be the ideal landing spot for former third-overall pick Trey Lance. It was just over two years ago that the Broncos were firmly in the QB market in the 2021 NFL Draft, and Lance was a player they scouted very closely.

At least, in the opportunities they were given.

The timing of Trey Lance's entry into the NFL and the context for why he's available at this particular point in time is absolutely need-to-know information. Lance dominated in his first year as a full-time starter for the North Dakota State Bison, throwing for nearly 2,800 yards with 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions while rushing for 1,100 yards and another 14 touchdowns on the ground.

Lance was a phenom in his redshirt freshman year, but COVID almost completely knocked out his 2020 season. Save for an exhibition game, Trey Lance didn't play any real football from the end of the 2019 season to his first preseason action as a rookie in 2021. The plan was obviously for him to sit and learn for a year, so the anticipation built quite a bit throughout the 2021 season for the 49ers and leading up to 2022 when he was finally the Week 1 starter for the 49ers.

Things did not go according to plan. Lance was injured early and replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo was injured and replaced by Brock Purdy, who has become the QB1 in San Francisco. Lance has been replaced by the team's new QB2, another former third-overall pick and castoff of the team that drafted him, Sam Darnold.

There were plenty of rumors leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft that the Denver Broncos and then-rookie GM George Paton had really taken a liking to Trey Lance. There have even been some rumblings in the time since the 49ers made the bold trade up the board to get Lance that he was the Broncos' QB1 in the class of 2021, and that had he fallen to the 9th overall pick, they might have taken him and built the franchise around him.

The question at this point for the Denver Broncos' context starts with whether or not George Paton has the same convictions now about Trey Lance as he did back in 2021 (if he ever had them at all).

The follow-up to that is -- does Sean Payton share those convictions? Would the Broncos be willing to take a shot on Trey Lance and throw him into the mix? The combination of George Paton as GM and Sean Payton as head coach (and the one with true final say over the roster) could lead to the Denver Broncos ultimately being the ideal landing spot in a Trey Lance trade.

Why?

Let's start with the obvious. George Paton may have had this guy as his QB1 in the 2021 class. Considering the Broncos invested a ton of time into that particular QB class (and it's possible the Vikings did as well), the fact that the 49ers beat Paton to the punch may have been something he was upset about, if only temporarily (getting Pat Surtain II is not a bad consolation price).

If Trey Lance was Paton's QB1 just two years ago, or even his QB2 for that matter, why would you not throw a draft pick at the 49ers after they have clearly diminished his value by declaring him available and the QB3 at best? Furthermore, Lance is just 23 years old. It's not like he's 29 and has had many chances. He's still way too young to say his career is a wash at this point.

Then you have the fact that Sean Payton knows how to work with and develop QBs of all types. The jury is still out on what he will do with Russell Wilson, but you could argue we saw the best versions of Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill under the watchful eye of Sean Payton. All of those QBs have very different skill sets, body types, athletic profiles, and backgrounds.

Payton crafted offenses to suit every single one of them, but his work with Taysom Hill, in particular, could be a clue as to what the Broncos could do to immediately get value out of Trey Lance. Lance, as previously mentioned, ran for 1,100 yards in his lone year as the starter at North Dakota State. He once clocked over 21.5 miles per hour on an in-game GPS. He's got tremendous athletic talent but more than that, he's just a really good, natural runner with the ball.

The Broncos have shown a little bit of their hand in terms of designed QB runs in the preseason and I think it will continue to be something Sean Payton will promote going forward. The Broncos don't have a "Taysom Hill" on the roster, but Taysom Hill wasn't "Taysom Hill" until he got with Sean Payton as well.

Am I saying the Broncos should trade for Trey Lance to make him Taysom Hill? No, I'm saying that a Taysom Hill type of role could end up being the initial way Lance would get involved while also developing as a quarterback. Remember, Jameis Winston sat in Payton's system for a year before getting on the field.

Another major reason I think the Broncos will be an ideal landing spot in a trade for Trey Lance? I think Kyle Shanahan is going to want to get him to a place where he can thrive. I'm sure Shanahan has a great deal of respect for Sean Payton and even though things haven't worked out in San Francisco, my guess is that Shanahan will do everything in his power to ensure Lance is set up in a position to succeed even after he leaves the 49ers.

Not to mention, a trade with the Broncos would keep Lance out of the NFC, which I think would be the 49ers' preference.

The other thing here is, when you start to break down what teams make the most sense to trade for Trey Lance, who really fits? Kyle Shanahan could trade him to another guy he probably trusts a good bit in Kevin O'Connell with the Vikings. He could trade him to the Titans and their new GM Ran Carthon.

But the Broncos might present the most obvious path to playing time in the near future with the uncertainty of Russell Wilson's future. Having a player like Lance under contract could help soften the blow for the Denver Broncos financially if they have to move on from Wilson's contract at any point in the near future. Lance is still on a rookie deal this year and next with a fifth-year option the year after that.

To drive the argument home even further, the Denver Broncos have seemingly done a lot of business with the San Francisco 49ers and the combination of GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan. George Paton struck a trade with the 49ers by acquiring linebacker Jonas Griffith, but that relationship extended back with John Elway as well who made trades involving RB Kapri Bibbs, WR Emmanuel Sanders, and OLB Dekoda Watson. The Broncos and 49ers also kind of made an unofficial trade for OC Rich Scangarello back in 2019.

The point is, the Broncos have done a lot of dealing with the 49ers. They've had joint practices in recent years. They are familiar with each other.

It would be really unfortunate if the Denver Broncos didn't at least inquire about the asking price with Trey Lance. They were depleted last year in draft capital because of the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton trades, but depending on the asking price here from the 49ers, I think this is absolutely a risk worth taking if you are George Paton.

You are talking about a recent top-3 draft pick who has loads of talent, is only 23 years old, can contribute without being your QB1, and a head coach who has a track record of setting up QBs for success (to put it mildly). I find it hard to believe these two teams couldn't find some common ground on a trade to ensure that Trey Lance gets into a good environment with coaches who can help get him to that next level as a player.