Denver Broncos 2023 season betting preview: Super Bowl odds, win total prediction, prop bets and more
By Peter Dewey
The Denver Broncos are looking to forget everything that happened in the 2022 season as they enter a new era under head coach Sean Payton.
Denver moved a first-round pick to bring in Payton after a disastrous 2022 season under Nathaniel Hackett. Payton will be tasked with rejuvenating a Denver offense that scored the fewest points in the NFL last season – even though it brought in quarterback Russell Wilson in a trade.
Wilson’s play will be the key for Denver, as he needs to return to his Pro-Bowl form if the Broncos want any chance to compete in a loaded AFC West division. Given how many assets the Broncos gave up for Wilson and Payton – they need this pairing to work.
Here’s a full guide to Denver’s offseason moves, futures odds and bets to make in the 2023 season:
Denver Broncos key offseason additions
- Tackle Mike McGlinchey
- Guard Ben Powers
- Defensive lineman Zach Allen
- Linebacker Alex Singleton
- Safety Kareem Jackson
- Running Back Samaje Perine
The Broncos didn't have many draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, so they made some major splashes – especially on the offensive line in free agency.
Denver Broncos key offseason losses
- Guard Dalton Risner
- Guard Billy Turner
- Tackle Cameron Fleming
- Defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones
Losing Jones is a big blow to the team’s pass rush, but the addition of Allen should help mitigate the loss. The Broncos saved money by adding Allen over re-signing Jones, and Allen actually had a higher WAR than Jones in 2022, according to ProFootball Focus.
Denver Broncos Super Bowl 58 odds
The Broncos are +4500 to win the Super Bowl, a sign that even though oddsmakers expect them to take a step under Payton, they still aren’t legit Super Bowl contenders – yet.
Last season, Denver was expected to be amongst the best teams in the AFC with Wilson at the helm, but the offense was one of the worst in the NFL. The bright side? Denver was third in the league in yards per play allowed on defense.
If the offense takes just a small step in 2023, the Broncos should be in contention for at least a wild card spot. These Super Bowl odds are fair, since we don’t know what the offense will be, so I’d wait to see the team’s first few games before placing a wager.
Denver Broncos win total prediction for the 2023 season
Denver’s win total projection suggests the team will hang around .500 in the 2023 season.
There could be some value in the OVER if you believe in Wilson having a bounce-back season, especially since Denver has an elite defense.
The Broncos couldn’t win games even when their defense shut teams down in 2022.
Broncos have held opponents to 17 or fewer points in regulation 10 times this season.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) December 4, 2022
They're 3-7 in those games.
If that changes, the Broncos could make a move for double-digit wins.
Denver Broncos odds to win AFC West
The Broncos will face a last-place schedule in the 2023 season, but that doesn’t help them when they are in the division taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders.
Denver is +550 to win the division – the third best odds– but it’s hard to see the team passing the Chiefs, who have won at least 12 games in every season with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
Mahomes has also dominated Denver, going 11-0 against them in his NFL career. Denver has not beaten Kansas City in five seasons. That alone makes them a longshot to win the AFC West.
Denver Broncos odds to win AFC
Denver is +3000 to win the AFC, but that makes sense since the team is third in the odds to win the AFC West.
The AFC is loaded in the 2023 season with the Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets all featuring star quarterbacks and solid teams. The Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens also should be in the mix, which leaves very little room for error for any team to make the playoffs – never mind win the conference.
Maybe Denver takes a step in the right direction, but the team would need to do a complete 180 to make the Super Bowl this season.
Denver Broncos odds to make the playoffs
Similar to Denver’s win total, this comes down to how much you believe in this offense.
The Broncos have already lost Tim Patrick for the season, which is a big loss, but the team quite literally can’t be worse than it was in 2022 (fewest points scored in the NFL).
At +190, Denver is a decent value – although it will be tough in a loaded AFC.
Best Denver Broncos season-long prop bet
Sean Payton to win Coach of the Year (+900)
Payton is in a great spot to turn around a franchise that has been brutal since winning Super Bowl 50.
After the incompetence of the Hackett era, Payton doesn’t have to do much right to improve this team from a 5-12 finish that it had in 2022.
Similar to Doug Pederson taking over for Urban Meyer in Jacksonville, Payton has a chance to bring a terrible team from last season to the playoffs in the following season.
The other key will be Wilson’s play. If the star quarterback finds his old form, it’s going to be hard not to credit Payton for turning things around. He’s my favorite bet to win Coach of the Year given his pedigree as one of the league’s most respected minds.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.