The Denver Broncos enter week 13 with a 27 percent chance to make the NFL Playoffs after winning five in a row. The Broncos have had some good news break their way, and the impending surgery for Jonathan Taylor also helps the team's playoff chances as the Colts will be without their all-world running back. The most obvious need for the Broncos in week 13 is a victory in Houston on Sunday.
Beyond their own business, the Broncos will need some help from around the AFC on Sunday. Here is a viewing guide for Broncos fans on who to root for this week. A Broncos victory in Week 13 immediately jumps their playoff chances to roughly 50 percent, according to the New York Times. Let's take a look at how other games across the NFL could help propel the Broncos to a playoff spot.
Important games: Colts @ Titans, Cardinals @ Steelers, Browns @ Rams
Colts @ Titans, Sunday 1 PM ET
With a Titans win on Sunday, the New York Times projects that the Broncos' playoff chances would jump to 58 percent. The Colts head into Nashville on the heels of a win at home over Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, but might already be starting from behind in week 13. Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor will be undergoing surgery this week and is expected to miss multiple weeks, team owner Jim Irsay told the media following their week 12 victory. The loss of Taylor puts Zach Moss right back into the role he had at the beginning of the year, where he succeeded, but the void will be felt.
Taylor had been rounding into form over the last few weeks, highlighted by his 91-yard rushing performance last week that was capped off with a pair of endzone visits. Losing Taylor will hurt the Colts, especially in a game that could be dominated by the rushing attack. The Colts will face Derrick Henry this week, a week after Henry ran for 76 yards and a pair of touchdowns at home. Will Levis has played well for the Titans, and overall, the offense has looked better in Tennessee of late. The Colts and Titans always play each other tough, and this week should be no different.
Verdict: Go Titans
Cardinals @ Steelers, Sunday 1 PM ET
A Cardinals road victory in Week 13, much like a Titans victory, would help the Broncos' case a ton. The Steelers are roughly a week removed from firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, reports of a fight breaking out in the locker room, and still pulling out a win in Week 12. The Steelers' offense did not do much better in terms of scoring points, with just 16, but put up a total of 421 yards, outgaining their opponent for the first time in 2023.
The Steelers will face a team with a much better quarterback than Jake Browning next week as they welcome in Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals.
Murray and the Cardinals have played a bit better since Murray returned, but the overall product has still struggled. Murray is 1-2 on the year, averaging less than 20 points a game. On the year, Murray has two touchdowns, two interceptions, and is averaging roughly 240 yards per game. While Murray has been far from the issue in Arizona since his return, his play has still been underwhelming. Murray, before his knee injury, was one of the more explosive quarterbacks in football and was always a threat to score.
The Cardinals, however, have their second-leading rusher still as Josh Dobbs, and still struggle to move the ball. Murray is still a candidate to break out at any time and could do so in Pittsburgh this week.
Verdict: Murray Time
Browns @ Rams, Sunday 4:20 ET
The Browns are heading into Los Angeles with plans for Joe Flacco to start after Kevin Stefanski announced that Flacco is second behind Dorrian Thomas-Robinson on the depth chart, but DTR is in concussion protocol. Flacco, the former Bronco, is now 38, with just 28 starts in his last five years, and was not a member of the Browns organization a few weeks ago.
Now, with the Browns season in a much fuzzier spot than it was just a week ago, Joe Flacco is in to save the day. On the other side of this matchup, the Rams sit at 5-6, are fighting for their own playoff lives, and have won two straight divisional games since their bye week. The Rams are coming off an easy win over the Cardinals their last time out, and now have their sights set on the Browns.
The Browns' defense was handled by Russell Wilson and the Broncos last week in their 29-12 loss in Denver. Miles Garrett came up lame during the game, DTR was almost knocked out, and Amari Cooper was down for a significant time as well. Ultimately, this is a Browns team that might just be looking for health when they depart Los Angeles after week 13. The Browns are banged up, and if there is one coach who can smell blood, it'll be Sean McVay. McVay has the Rams playing better of late, and the Rams can talk about the postseason again, for the time being. Both teams are playing for their playoffs this week, but one is hobbling in town off a beat down, and the other is riding high at home after consecutive wins.
Verdict: Go Rams Go
What happens if this all pans out (or not)?
In a dream scenario for the Broncos, the team wins in Houston, and all three of the games listed above go their way. In that scenario, the New York Times Playoff Simulator gives the Broncos roughly a 60% chance of making the playoffs. In this scenario, the Steelers would hold the fifth seed, the Broncos the sixth, and the Browns the seventh. All three would sit at 7-5, with the Steelers holding the tiebreaker over the Broncos due to in conference winning percentage, and the Broncos over the Browns due to their week 12 game.
In a world where none of that happens, the AFC playoff picture sits as it currently is: Steelers, Browns, and Colts in that order for the Wild Card spots, the Texans in the first spot out, the Broncos behind them in the ninth spot, but still ahead of the Bills due to head-to-head.
In this scenario, the Bengals' week 13 result in Jacksonville becomes relevant, but that feels like a tough task for Jake Browning. This scenario crashes the Broncos' playoff chances to roughly 13%. The head-to-head against the Texans carries a world of difference for Denver.