The Denver Broncos quarterback situation could look the exact same in 2024, or it could look totally different. Let's take a look at four possible scenarios for them. Russell Wilson has played well this year, but I guess we don't know for sure whether or not he will return to the team next year. Sean Payton took this job to be the Broncos head coach, and immediately, people started saying that he's going to just keep Wilson around for one year and cut ties after this year.
Salary cap-wise, it's much easier to move on from Wilson after the 2024 season than it is now. It'd be a brutal financial burden next offseason, and the Broncos are currently not exactly in a prime position to draft a top QB prospect next year. If the team can at least scrape their way to a 9-8 record or a playoff berth, however, that looks, I think Payton brings his QB back.
Well, the Broncos are 6-6 and there are endless scenarios that can happen over the last five games of the season. Let's take a look at the four possible QB scenarios for the Denver Broncos in 2024.
Scenario 1: QB room looks the same in 2024
There is a scenario where Sean Payton might not want to tweak the quarterback room in 2024. Russell Wilson could end up going on a tear over the last five weeks, as the Broncos do face some pretty bad defenses. The Broncos could also win the rest of their games, make the playoffs, and win a playoff game. Payton simply might not have a reason to do much with the room in 2024 and could turn his attention elsewhere.
Backup QB Jarrett Stidham is also under contract for another season and Payton has spoken highly of him. I do think it would be encouraging to bring back both Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham in 2024, which would be their second year in Payton's offense. You'd have to think that this room can go nowhere but up unless Wilson self-implodes.
Scenario 2: Russell Wilson returns, but a mid-round rookie QB is added to the mix
The hit rate on mid-round QBs, or QBs taken outside the first round is pretty low. Dak Prescott was a fourth-round pick. Brock Purdy was a seventh-round pick. Who else is there? Kirk Cousins was a mid-round pick. There aren't a ton of QBs not taken in the first round who are currently starting. Russell Wilson was a third-round pick.
Anyway, I do think the Broncos could find a potential long-term QB option in the middle rounds. It's possible, and Sean Payton has a solid draft history, so I would trust him as an established offensive mind to bring a young rookie QB in. I think Jarrett Stidham would stick around here, but I could see a scenario where he'd be demoted to the third-string or even outright cut if the rookie QB shows promise.
This would make Russell Wilson's seat a bit warmer in 2024, and would give the Broncos an "out" with Wilson at the end of the season, when it'd be much easier to move on from him financially. I don't think Sean Payton is actively wanting to cut his starting QB, but I do think he wants to tweak the room a bit next year.
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Scenario 3: Russell Wilson gets cut, team signs bridge QB and drafts first-round QB
The last two scenarios see Russell Wilson being shown the door after just two years as the Denver Broncos starting QB. It would be a major move regardless of how the season ends. In this third scenario, the Broncos take a more controlled approach to finding a long-term passer. The first move as I said would be to cut (or even trade if they found a partner) Wilson, invest in a bridge quarterback like Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, or someone else like that, and also end it with a first-round QB in 2024.
This would give the Denver Broncos serviceable enough QB play with the veteran addition, perhaps keeping them afloat, but at some point in 2024, the Broncos would surely trot out their rookie passer. Lots of NFL teams have done this recently. The Kansas City Chiefs kind of did it with Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes.
The Los Angeles Chargers were about to do it with Tyrod Taylor/Justin Herbert before Herbert was forced into the lineup. The Baltimore Ravens did it with Joe Flacco/Lamar Jackson, too. The idea behind operating this way with the QB room is that the young passer can sit and watch how a more seasoned veteran goes about his business. The rookie QB ideally absorbs as much information as he can until he's eventually given a starting shot.
This would likely be a bit of a re-tooling year for the Broncos, as you don't typically see these teams winning a ton of games, but the Denver Broncos might be in this scenario next year.
Scenario 4: Russell Wilson gets cut, team drafts first-round QB and starts immediately
This is a scenario that we've mostly seen with first-round QBs. A lot of them are given the reigns immediately. Joe Burrow started immediately. Kyler Murray started immediately. Trevor Lawrence started immediately. CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson all started immediately. Some people think that exposing the QBs to the NFL immediately is better for their development than having them sit on the bench to begin their careers.
Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos might want to take this route if they get the right prospect in the building. Current QB2 Jarrett Stidham probably sticks around as the backup again, but all indications with this scenario would be the rookie QB starting Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season.
You're probably wondering how much it would cost to cut Russell Wilson this coming offseason. Well, I have you covered! According to overthecap.com, cutting Wilson as a post-June 1st designation would force the Broncos to eat $35.4 million in dead cap and would save them $0 on their cap space. If you're wanting the Broncos to move on from Wilson next offseason, you better hope that they can find a trade partner, as Wilson's pact is tradeable next year.
So, what do you want the Denver Broncos to do with their QB situation?