Despite contrary belief, it is going to be very difficult for the Denver Broncos to navigate a trade for quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason. As most know, the Broncos are widely expected to part ways with Wilson this offseason and are currently in a messy situation regarding his contract numbers. Denver is scheduled to owe Wilson $39M in salary pay in 2024 and will absorb a massive $85M dead cap hit once released before the fifth day of the new league year in March.
However, the looming dead cap hit is expected to be split into two different chunks between 2024 and 2025 once the Broncos front office opts to use a post-June 1 designation. As for now, rumors have circulated across the media regarding the possibility of Denver moving on from Wilson via trade rather than a contract release. The chances of this coming to fruition are close to impossible.
Of the teams mentioned to potentially trade for the veteran quarterback, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, and Minnesota Vikings have generated the most attention. However, would any of these teams seriously consider the thought of absorbing the expensive contract of Wilson's? Wilson is 35 years old entering the 13th season of his career while showing concerning signs of declining play in an aging player.
Considering his recent play in Denver, there is no possible chance any team will trade for his contract without any contractual restructuring being completed before making the deal. Zero chance. Wilson is scheduled to have a $35.4M cap hit in 2024 and a ridiculous $55.4M cap hit in 2025. From there on, the numbers only get worse. No explanation reasonably justifies why Wilson should be making top-five quarterback money this late in his career. Therefore, a contract restructure has to be in the cards for Denver to have any hope that they can pull off a trade.
While it certainly is possible that a team like the Steelers or even Falcons could force Denver to eat the majority of Wilson's base salary, why would said teams even trade for him in the first place? Perhaps there is a team that is significantly higher on Wilson than others and chooses to avoid a bidding war in free agency (if Wilson were to become an unrestricted free agent). However, at this point in his career, Wilson's value is the lowest it has ever been meaning the Broncos will likely have to trade a day-three draft pick to the opposing team to get his contract off the books. At that point, general manager George Paton will likely release Wilson rather than sacrifice even more draft capital in addition to what he originally gave up in the trade to acquire him.
The whole situation is a mess, more particularly due to the contract that was given to Wilson moments after the trade. Looking back at the trade in hindsight, the Broncos essentially wasted two years of premium draft picks and regular season games when they could have had a more efficient option at quarterback. No other teams are going to make the mistake of trading for Wilson when they can wait until the beginning of free agency and sign him to a very cheap deal.