The Russell Wilson experiment in Denver seems to be headed to ruins as the Broncos will likely be searching for a new starting quarterback this offseason. Following back-to-back underwhelming seasons as Denver's acclaimed "new franchise quarterback", the failed working relationships with head coaches Nathaniel Hackett and Sean Payton prove Wilson's declining play and likely exit. The best bet moving forward for the franchise is to rip the band-aid off now rather than digging themselves deeper in the financial hole of Wilson's contract.
However, a few weeks following general manager George Paton's press conference with the media, some have speculated the potential possibility of Wilson returning to Denver in 2024 as the team's starter, even after his benching in Week 17. "The door remains open with Russ", said Paton. Could this be a general manager's slick way of creating misconception that Wilson could be available for trade and not a cut candidate? Or are the Broncos seriously considering mending their relationship with Wilson?
3 reasons why Russell Wilson will NOT return to Denver:
1. Concerning contract
The Broncos are currently scheduled to pay Wilson $39M guaranteed in 2024 and he has made it well known to the public that he will not be pushing back his $37M injury guarantee date in 2025. Therefore, retaining Wilson forces the Broncos organization into an ever deeper hole with his contract making it more difficult to address other positions of need on the roster for years to come. Yes, the $85M dead cap hit will sting, however, a post-June 1st designation will make the situation a bit more feasible to work with from a financial standpoint.
Not to mention, if Wilson is on the roster after the first week of March, an additional $37M in guarantees will be triggered for his 2025 salary. The Broncos simply cannot justify the salary that is curating Russell Wilson.
2. Jarrett Stidham's "spark"
Of the three reasons, this may be the most obvious. For nearly 10 times less the average annual salary of Wilson's, quarterback Jarrett Stidham produced nearly the same production on the field in two starts as Wilson did in 15. Also, with much less NFL experience and zero first-team reps until Week 17, Stidham was able to look like a competent quarterback in the pocket and operate the field at a much higher level than Wilson who has played 12 years in the league.
In the final two games, Stidham completed 40 of 66 passing attempts for 496 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception while converting 19 first downs through the air. While it was a small sample size, Stidham was on pace to throw for over 161 first downs if he had started all 17 games. Through the first 15 games with Wilson as the team's signal-caller, Denver ranked 30th in the NFL with a horrible 135 passing first downs. Wilson converted just 41 third downs through the air in 2023 which ranked 22nd among all quarterbacks. He ranked lower than quarterbacks like Bryce Young, Joshua Dobbs, and Desmond Ridder.
While Denver did emphasize running the football at a high volume midway through the season, it was because of Wilson's inability to put a game on his shoulders when needed -- i.e. Week 13 in Houston. There is just no reasonable justification for Wilson to quarterback the offense as one of the league's highest-paid players to provide the Broncos 'middle of the pack' production if Stidham can provide the exact same play, if not better.
3. Schematic misfit
We'll truly never know if head coach Sean Payton ever saw a long-term future with Russell Wilson as his franchise quarterback, however, we do know that the systematic marriage between the two will never pan out and unfortunately was never meant to be. Think of it as trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Wilson completed just 17 passes over the middle of the field in 2023 in a West Coast scheme that highly benefits route runners in the intermediate part of the field. That is a big no-no.
Throwing over the middle needs some design help to unlock the area, but a vast majority of passing concepts have some way to attack that area.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 18, 2024
And no matter how I splice up the stats for throwing between the numbers, the same two QBs are always at the bottom. This is a thing. pic.twitter.com/bB5JLuM6ca
It's been an issue for Wilson ever since entering the league and was becoming a massive issue closer towards his exit from Seattle in 2022. Wilson gravely struggles to read the middle of the field like how an average starting quarterback is expected to. He's not the right fit in Payton's system and isn't capable of consistently winning football games without defensive takeaways and an elite running game.
We witnessed that in Seattle as well. I'm almost certain Payton wants someone who can "point guard" his offense and prioritize taking care of the football. Wilson does not fit that mold at this point in his career.