The Denver Broncos will have their toughest game of the season thus far in Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season against the Miami Dolphins. Can they pull off the upset? The Broncos desperately need a win in 2023. Sean Payton's teams in the past have tended to start slow. In fact, Payton has historically only won 54 percent of his games in September, but wins 76 percent of his games in October.
We'll see if the Broncos can continue that trend in 2023. That would be nice to see Denver win a few in a row and put themselves right back in the thick of things. The Broncos travel to Miami for a 1:00PM start, and this has been a huge task for them in the past. For whatever reason, Denver has had a heck of a time traveling east to play a 1:00PM game. I should know, I've gone to two of them in Buffalo and Baltimore over the last several seasons.
Let's dive into three reasons this team will win on Sunday, and two reasons why they will lose.
3 reasons Denver Broncos in in Week 3, 2 reasons they lose
Broncos WIN because Russell Wilson gets to play against a bad defense
The Miami Dolphins' defense has allowed a total of 51 points through two games, so they are giving up over 25 points per game. Defensively, they've allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of their passes, and have allowed the 6th most completions in the NFL. To be fair, they've also sacked the QB a ton this year thus far, but the defense has been shaky at best.
Russell Wilson just had to deal with a very stingy defense in the Washington Commanders, and he played pretty well. Wilson also played well against the Las Vegas Raiders defense. Miami is without Jalen Ramsey for the next few months, so the unit is a bit weaker because of that, and with DangeRuss looking more and more like his old self, I think it's only a matter of time before we see a Vintage Russ type of game.
Broncos LOSE because their defense is facing an elite offense
On the flip side, the Denver Broncos defense is among the worst units in the NFL thus far. They have given up 52 points so far in 2023, which is 26 per game. They've been inconsistent in the secondary and the pass rush seems to be hit or miss. I really think Dolphins' QB Tua Tagovailoa is going to have a field day against this bad Broncos' secondary unless Vance Joseph has some type of elite game plan he plans on implementing.
Not only is Tagovailoa an excellent and accurate QB, the Dolphins also feature perhaps the fastest playmakers in the NFL. Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane are some of the fastest players in the league, and much of what the Dolphins do on offense is to simply get the ball to the playmaker as quickly as possible.
It might be a long day for Denver.
Broncos WIN because this could be a trap game for the Dolphins
Trap games are most definitely a thing in the NFL. Even though Denver seems equipped enough to not be among the worst teams in the NFL, they clearly are not as good as the Dolphins. Perhaps Miami will come down from their high of the first two weeks. They got into a shootout against the Los Angeles Chargers and won a hard-fought game against the New England Patriots on Sunday night.
Maybe they'll have an off day? I remember back in 2019, a rookie Drew Lock and the 4-8 Denver Broncos waltzed into Houston to face an 8-4 Texans team that had just come off a big primetime win versus the Patriots. I told myself that Denver would win because I just felt like the Texans were due for a trap game.
And well, Drew Lock had the best game of his career, and the Broncos blew out Houston. I think the same could happen here in Week 3.
Broncos LOSE because Tua Tagovailoa is a mastermind against the blitz
The Denver Broncos will be blitzing a ton under Vance Joseph. That's just part of what he likes to do as defensive coordinator. I found this excerpt from fantasypros.com that really paints a bleak picture for the Broncos' defense in Week 3:
"Tagovailoa has been balling out. He's the QB6 in fantasy, ranking first in passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate. He should shred a Denver pass defense that's allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt and fourth-highest passer rating. Denver has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game despite facing the 14th-fewest passing attempts. Tagovailoa should have plenty of time in the pocket. Denver has the 11th-highest blitz rate but has generated the second-lowest pressure rate. Tagovailoa has destroyed the blitz this season with the highest passing grade and 11th-best yards per attempt. Week 3 Positional Value: Top shelf QB1"Derek Brown - Fantasy Pros
Denver has blitzed more than most teams in the NFL this year, but have been able to generate some of the worst pressure in the league. That is essentially double trouble. Not only is Tua Tagovailoa great against the blitz, but even when the Broncos bring players, they aren't able to get home. Maybe Vance Joseph calls a different type of game to try and limit this damage against the blitz.
Broncos WIN because.... they get some lucky bounces?
I'm truly trying to figure out another legitimate reason why I think the Denver Broncos win on Sunday. But truly, I am struggling. Perhaps this will be a game where it comes down to a few lucky bounces here and there. Maybe the team benefits off of a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage and a Broncos defensive player picks it off.
Maybe Denver has the lead late in the game but needs to punt it away. Perhaps Riley Dixon pins the Dolphins down perfect deep inside their own territory. Perhaps something else crazy happens like last week, where Russell Wilson threw a Hail Mary pass that was tipped just outside the end zone, only for Brandon Johnson to catch the ball and take a step into the end zone for the score.
The Denver Broncos just might need something like that to go right if they want to win this game.