Broncos LOSE because Tua Tagovailoa is a mastermind against the blitz
The Denver Broncos will be blitzing a ton under Vance Joseph. That's just part of what he likes to do as defensive coordinator. I found this excerpt from fantasypros.com that really paints a bleak picture for the Broncos' defense in Week 3:
"Tagovailoa has been balling out. He's the QB6 in fantasy, ranking first in passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate. He should shred a Denver pass defense that's allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt and fourth-highest passer rating. Denver has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game despite facing the 14th-fewest passing attempts. Tagovailoa should have plenty of time in the pocket. Denver has the 11th-highest blitz rate but has generated the second-lowest pressure rate. Tagovailoa has destroyed the blitz this season with the highest passing grade and 11th-best yards per attempt. Week 3 Positional Value: Top shelf QB1"- Derek Brown - Fantasy Pros
Denver has blitzed more than most teams in the NFL this year, but have been able to generate some of the worst pressure in the league. That is essentially double trouble. Not only is Tua Tagovailoa great against the blitz, but even when the Broncos bring players, they aren't able to get home. Maybe Vance Joseph calls a different type of game to try and limit this damage against the blitz.
Broncos WIN because.... they get some lucky bounces?
I'm truly trying to figure out another legitimate reason why I think the Denver Broncos win on Sunday. But truly, I am struggling. Perhaps this will be a game where it comes down to a few lucky bounces here and there. Maybe the team benefits off of a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage and a Broncos defensive player picks it off.
Maybe Denver has the lead late in the game but needs to punt it away. Perhaps Riley Dixon pins the Dolphins down perfect deep inside their own territory. Perhaps something else crazy happens like last week, where Russell Wilson threw a Hail Mary pass that was tipped just outside the end zone, only for Brandon Johnson to catch the ball and take a step into the end zone for the score.
The Denver Broncos just might need something like that to go right if they want to win this game.