The Denver Broncos have been in all sorts of headlines during the 2023 offseason, mainly for all good reasons. They've brought in a top-flight head coach, used the Walmart money to go shopping in the top tier of the free agency market, and have been adding depth up and down the roster in free agency. However, expectations have seemingly risen to high heights for the 2023 Broncos. However, fans setting expectations that high might find themselves disappointed come the end of the 2023 season. Here are three reasons why the Broncos might not reach high expectations for the 2023 season.
1) Russ needs a historic turnaround
The key to the Broncos' success in 2023 will largely rest on the success of Russell Wilson and how sharply he can turn around his performance. 2022 was a historically bad year for Wilson, as he endured one of the worst drop-offs in sporting history. If the Broncos are going to have any success, Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi, and Davis Webb will need to conduct a turnaround just as great as the drop-off. While everyone wants to see Russ return to his previous form, it would be foolish to simply expect it. One can have hope that Payton and Co. can pull it off, but flat-out expecting it would be foolish.
Next, Payton and company also need to compete with father time when it comes to Russ. He is entering his age 34 season and will turn 35 during the year. He is not as mobile as he used to do, and has begun to deal with more and more injuries as he has aged. Russ isn't only on the wrong side of 30 but is pushing the wrong side of 40. His diminished mobility has made him resort to more throwing near the pocket, something he struggled with in 2022.
Now, an improved offensive line, a strong running game, and a better campaign across the board from his receivers, both in terms of production and health, will ease a lot of these concerns. However, until these are seen in games, these concepts of improvement are just that, concepts. Never bet on something that is not concrete.
2) Holes remain entering the draft... with minimal capital
The Broncos enter the latter wave of free agency with most of their cap used up, and now turn their focus to the draft. They possess two third-round picks, a round that George Paton has done well in, but those picks are their first selections in the 2023 draft. The team likely still needs a new center, or at the bare minimum competition, another running back or two, likely another safety, and more help in the defensive trenches. Most of these are not going to be fixed with splashy moves, and this was known, but having almost no remaining cap space and several spots where you still need help, is simply not ideal.
It is possible that the Broncos feel they have the fixes to these problems internally already, whether it be Luke Wattenberg up the middle, Caden Sterns or PJ Locke at safety, or Matt Hennigsen on the defensive line. But if they don't, the Broncos are going to be calling on players who they don't feel can adequately fill those roles to carry a bigger share of responsibility than they would probably like. Granted, there is a ton of time for the younger players to figure it out and adjust, but it doesn't set up for a great deal of success, especially if the Broncos are as snake-bitten again next year as they were this year with the injury bug.
3) Denver Broncos Starting from almost scratch
The 2022 Broncos were one of the greatest embarrassments and disappointments in modern football history. After trading for one of the better quarterbacks in NFL history, signing him to a long-term deal to finally take the team out of quarterback purgatory, and hiring one of the brightest young minds in the game, the Broncos went 5-12 and orchestrated one of the worst offenses in football. The team was dysfunctional, seeing an offensive lineman trying to fight the backup quarterback, a backup defensive tackle screaming at the starting quarterback right behind the head coach, and worst of all, a Christmas debacle against the Rams that resulted in the firing of Nathaniel Hackett.
The Broncos were an embarrassment for the ages. Sean Payton is facing an almost impossible task: take the closest thing the NFL has right now to the vintage Browns and turn them into a winner. To expect this in just one year is placing impossible odds on the coach and his staff, and almost certainly sets them up for failure.
There is no doubt that the Walton-Penner group and George Paton are expecting improvements next year. Anything worse than what they did would be a hysterically bad start to the Payton tenure. However, building a winning and championship organization takes time and patience, and will not be done in a year. Sure, everyone would love it if this take ends up being wrong, but it just is improbable bordering on impossible.
Rome was not built in a day, and neither were the Patriots or Chiefs. If the Broncos want to reach that level, it will require a load of patience and understanding, and a grace period to bring a currently laughable franchise back to the prominence of the Bowlen days. Sean Payton is just the man the Broncos need to try and achieve this task, but he will need to be given time to do it correctly, and for that, there is no reason to assume a complete 180 from the 2023 Broncos.