Did the Denver Broncos make a mistake by hiring Sean Payton? Did they give up too much in a trade? Are they paying Payton too much money? Is this risk worth the reward?
There are a lot of questions being asked as the Denver Broncos' roster starts to take shape leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft. The reality of not having a first-round pick has set in, so what makes Sean Payton worth the massive price of admission?
I think there are a lot of fair questions being asked these days by the members of Broncos Country. The team has been bad the last handful of years. The Walton-Penner ownership group inherited a team with the second-longest playoff draught in the NFL right now and had to make the tough decision to fire Nathaniel Hackett in his first year on the job. The Broncos spent more money than any other team in NFL Free Agency. They paid a bigger price for their new head coach than any other team with a vacancy.
Why was this not a mistake? Let's take a look at the three main reasons.
3 reasons the Denver Broncos did not make a mistake trading for HC Sean Payton
1. Sean Payton is one of the best NFL head coaches in modern history
Let's start here, because I think this is easy for people to miss. Among active NFL head coaches with at least five seasons on the job, there are only four with a higher career win percentage than Sean Payton:
- Bill Belichick, Patriots
- Andy Reid, Chiefs
- Sean McDermott, Bills
- Mike Tomlin, Steelers
That's it. Even if you throw in all qualified active coaches, only Matt LaFleur is added to that list with a high win percentage in his first four years on the job with the Green Bay Packers.
Sean Payton's win percentage as a head coach (.631) is tied with Curly Lambeau for 23rd best in NFL history. His nine career playoff wins are tied for fifth-best among active NFL coaches. For whatever reason, people have diminished the accomplishment of Payton and the Saints winning a Super Bowl, saying he has "only" won one as an NFL head coach. Payton is one of just eight current NFL head coaches that has led his team to a Super Bowl title.
It's not just that Payton has been around the block, he's basically a living legend after what he accomplished in New Orleans over 16 years and 15 seasons.
In 10 of his 15 seasons coaching the Saints, Payton's teams ranked in the top 10 of point differential, meaning they outscored their opponents more than two-thirds of the league. Payton has been an OC or HC for 18 of his years coaching in the NFL. In 15 of those 18 seasons, his offenses have been top-9 units. In two of the remaining three seasons, they ranked 12th and 13th.
Only once did Payton's Saints offenses rank outside the top 12 in scoring offense. The only time his offense didn't rank in the top 12 in scoring was the 2021 season, when Jameis Winston was on pace for over 50 touchdown passes before suffering a torn ACL in Week 7.
It's understandable that people are skeptical the Broncos are going to be able to turn things around after what we saw last season, but Sean Payton's track record is such that you can almost take it to the bank that this is going to be a top-10 offensive unit. He simply hasn't had a multi-year sample as an NFL head coach of bad or even average offenses.
2. You can trust Sean Payton with quarterbacks
There are few NFL head coaches with as diverse a portfolio at the quarterback position who have also had a lot of success with just about every guy.
Of course, the primary QB for Sean Payton's time with the New Orleans Saints was Drew Brees. That seems to be another weird area where people don't want to give Payton his due credit. Everyone seems to think that Payton was carried by Brees' greatness for their time together in New Orleans, and they will point to the fact that the Saints' offense sort of tanked after Brees retired.
Let's get one thing straight -- Brees was a bit of an outcast when the Saints initially acquired him. He was a risk. He was unwanted by the Chargers for a handful of years. He played one playoff game in five years with the Chargers, who had one of the most exciting groups of offensive skill players in the league. It wasn't like Brees was some hack at the time, but he was certainly not the Drew Brees many people know today. Nobody knew how his story would play out back then.
He and Sean Payton just worked great together for many years, and they were able to put together some of the best offenses in the NFL in some very unique ways. The Saints have had dominant rushing attacks and dominant passing attacks. They built the offense around Brees for many years, but Payton also built an offense for someone like Teddy Bridgewater to come in and have tremendous success. Bridgewater didn't lose a single game he started in the 2019 season in relief of Brees and parlayed it into a $63 million deal from the Panthers in 2020.
What about Taysom Hill? The Taysom Hill offense in New Orleans has been poked fun at, to be sure, but the Saints also only lost two of the nine games Hill started from 2020-21.
What about the torrid pace Jameis Winston was on after he was asked to walk the plank in Tampa Bay? Winston went from throwing 30 interceptions for Bruce Arians to being on pace for 50 touchdowns in the 2021 season when his TD percentage skyrocketed to 8.7 percent and his INT percentage dipped all the way down to 1.9 percent, the lowest of his NFL career.
That is what Payton can bring to the table in terms of being able to trust him with the QB position. He has worked so well with so many different shapes, sizes, and ability levels of players.
3. Draft picks mean nothing if you don't have the right captain of the ship
The Denver Broncos could be absolutely loaded with draft picks and still not have a definitive direction as a team. You need the right captain to steer the ship where it needs to go. Ever since Gary Kubiak stepped down due to health reasons, the Broncos have really lacked that true captain of the ship.
Sean Payton is going to be the one to get this team going the right direction. People talk about changing "culture" all the time, but there are few great leaders who can actually make that happen. Especially in a business like the NFL where change is truly the only constant, someone like Sean Payton is an equalizer against those constant forces of change.
So many Broncos fans were worried, for instance, about the team losing Dre'Mont Jones in free agency. That is a big loss for the team in terms of a talented player who came up through the organization, played well, and earned a big-money contract. To not see him retained felt detrimental to many. I won't attempt to diminish the loss of a player like Dre'Mont Jones, but the presence of a head coach like Sean Payton can help you be a bit more unflappable in those kinds of situations.
Why? Because Payton has proven, time and time again, that he can make things work with the players he's given. And more than just make them work. He had the Saints in contention for nearly two straight decades. There were very few years in which that team was not a legitimate threat in the NFC.
What is the use of a first-round draft pick -- specifically the 29th overall pick -- if you don't have the right coach? It's worth it to pay that outrageous price -- draft picks, money, or otherwise -- if you know that what you're getting is one of the best and most proven head coaches in modern football history.
Sean Payton is that.
If anything, it feels like this move is being vastly underrated right now by the masses, including many in Broncos Country. The gravity of having a Sean Payton in the head coach's chair simply doesn't suck you in the same as Peyton Manning donning the jersey and helmet. It isn't quite the same just yet as having John Elway in the GM chair. But that's what being so good you're almost boring can do for you.
People tend to focus on things without context, like the bounty scandal in New Orleans, Payton being suspended for a year, and this ridiculous assumption that he 'quit' on the Saints after working 15 years with the team. At any rate, I think the Broncos made the correct choice here even if it would have been just as exciting to see Jim Harbaugh come to Denver. Payton is the most accomplished NFL head coach they could have possibly gotten, a rare chance to add a living legend in that arena.