For the time being, the Denver Broncos (and every other NFL team) are still undefeated. That will eventually change, and this team will undoubtedly experience the ups and downs of an NFL regular season just like always. But as is always the case at this time of year, everyone is still holding out hope for the best.
Everyone in Broncos Country is sick of the team losing. The Broncos haven't made the playoffs since they won Super Bowl 50, and they haven't had a winning season since 2016. It's been the most brutal stretch in modern franchise history after the Broncos were one of the winningest franchises in pro sports for over two decades. This is a franchise with rich tradition and history, and the 2023 team -- led by head coach Sean Payton -- undoubtedly feels the pressure to uphold that tradition.
So, while we still have time, let's dream for a moment about what the best possible scenarios for the Denver Broncos could be in 2023. We obviously know the team is not going undefeated, so we can rule that out, but what if everything just starts coming together for the Broncos?
Let's look at the top 10 best-case scenarios for the Denver Broncos in 2023.
10 best-case scenario predictions for the Denver Broncos in 2023
1. Broncos have a top 10 offense
It's almost torturous to think about what the Denver Broncos' last six years could have been if the team could have fielded even a competent offense, let alone a top-10 unit in the NFL. The Broncos haven't had a top-10 offense since 2014 when they ranked 2nd in the NFL in points. They barely cracked the top 20 the year they won Super Bowl 50.
Having a top-10 offense would almost assure the Broncos a playoff spot in 2023. The only team in the top 10 of the NFL in yards last season that didn't make the playoffs was the Detroit Lions. They were also the only team in the NFL with a top-10 scoring offense to not make the playoffs.
And the fact that the Lions didn't make the playoffs is a total joke. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made it because they "won" the NFC South with a losing record. The Lions ended the year 9-8. Essentially -- a top 10 scoring offense all but guarantees you a playoff spot.
2. Broncos finish top 10 in the NFL in sacks
Oddly enough, ranking in the top 10 of the NFL in sacks last season was anything but a guarantee for the playoffs. Let's look at each of the top 10 teams in the NFL last season in sacks:
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. New England Patriots
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. New York Jets
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. San Francisco 49ers
Three of those teams (the ones in bold) missed the playoffs last year. It goes to show how important a strong offense is, but I think ranking in the top 10 of the NFL in sacks is oftentimes a great indicator of how well you're going to do in the playoffs. The Super Bowl champion each year since 2020 has ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in sacks over the course of the season, and the 2019 Chiefs ranked 11th. Finishing in the top 10 in sacks is crucial.
3. Pat Surtain II contends for Defensive MVP
Do you need to have a contender for Defensive MVP in order to be a true "contender" for a championship? Not necessarily, but it's helpful. Chris Jones of the Chiefs, Aaron Donald of the Rams, Shaq Barrett on the Bucs...You get the idea. You need to have a variety of studs on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos having Pat Surtain is undoubtedly a major advantage.
If Surtain can contend for Defensive MVP, what will it mean? It will mean the Broncos are likely winning a lot of games. Surtain is unquestionably one of the best defensive players in the NFL, so this idea is only far-fetched if teams simply refuse to throw his direction.
4. Russell Wilson returns to Pro Bowl form
If Russell Wilson can return to his Pro Bowl form, I think anything is on the table for the Denver Broncos. Of course, that's a pretty big "if" at this point because we just saw Wilson have his worst year as a pro in 2022.
But is it that far-fetched to think he can get back? People like to talk about Russell Wilson's "regression from 2018-2021 with the Seattle Seahawks as if he wasn't playing MVP-caliber football in 2020. It's funny how people choose to forget how things were going in actual games in favor of statistics. As of 2020, there was nobody talking about how Russ had been "regressing". We only started to notice any sort of decline in his play when he got injured in 2021.
For almost his entire career, Wilson has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. It would be nice if the Denver Broncos could get that guy. If they can, I think the sky is the limit for this team.
5. Javonte Williams wins the NFL rushing title
I don't know how far-fetched this one is, but it will be based on Javonte Williams' health and how much the Broncos are willing to give him the ball all year. Sean Payton is all about preserving backs, but if Javonte has the hot hand, why take the ball out of it?
Williams has an innate ability to create yardage after contact, and those kinds of backs are the ones winning NFL rushing titles these days. Obviously, expectations for Williams have to be tempered slightly given the fact that he's coming off of a major injury, but there have also been no indications this entire offseason that he's suffered any sort of setback whatsoever.
Every indication we've gotten is that he's full steam ahead.
6. Broncos win majority of one-score games
Last year, the Denver Broncos played 17 games, just like every other team. Of those games, just four were decided by more than one score. The Broncos lost three. That means the Broncos were 4-9 in games decided by one score last season.
Now, imagine that number was flipped around. If the Broncos had still one 1-3 in blowout games but won 9 of 13 one-score games, they would have gone 10-7 on the year. They were not far off, despite having horrendous coaching and injury luck on top of everything else.
The Minnesota Vikings, for a frame of reference, were an astonishing 11-0 in one-score games during the regular season last year. If the Broncos can even find a way to win a majority of their one-score games, which history tells us most of the games will end up being, then the playoffs are back in frame.
7. Broncos sweep the Chiefs
Alright, now we're getting into the overly bold section of the predictions, but we're talking about best-case scenario aren't we? The Broncos play the Chiefs twice in a matter of just a couple of weeks, one of the matchups on the road for Thursday Night Football and the next one in Denver a few weeks later. As we sit here, the Broncos have lost about 100 straight games to the Chiefs dating back to 2015. What's worse? The Chiefs have won the Super Bowl twice since the Broncos won Super Bowl 50.
It's painful for Broncos Country.
But also as we sit here today, there remains a non-zero chance of the Broncos beating the Chiefs twice. Beating them once would likely feel like winning it all, but beating them twice? Well, that might convince the locker room that they can win a championship.
8. Broncos find a way to win the AFC West
We are talking best-case scenario, remember? Even in Peyton Manning's heyday with the Broncos, I remember the Chiefs teams with Alex Smith giving the Broncos fits all year. Some seasons came down to the wire even with the Broncos winning 12 or more games. Is it likely that anyone in the AFC West will dethrone the Chiefs? It doesn't feel that way, but again, we're in the Lloyd Christmas "you're telling me there's a chance?" phase of the year still.
Anything in possible until it's officially not. Winning the AFC West would potentially ensure a top two seed in the AFC overall given how good the Chiefs will be, and you have to expect them to win at least 11 games.
9. Sean Payton wins NFL Coach of the Year
If Russell Wilson returns to Pro Bowl form, the Broncos double their win total from last year (or better), and the team returns to the playoffs, how are you giving coach of the year to anyone else but Sean Payton?
Payton, who took a year off in 2022, is historically one of the best coaches in NFL history. He averages 11 wins per 17 games. His offenses rarely rank outside the top 10. He turned the New Orleans Saints into a perennial contender and he has certainly done his part to quickly change the vibe in Denver since he arrived.
The proof will be with what he does on the field, of course, but I think there's a certain checklist of things that could happen that would lead to Payton winning Coach of the Year in 2023:
1. Beat the Chiefs at least once
2. Russell Wilson returns to form
3. Make the playoffs
If those things happen, Payton is the Coach of the Year in my book.
10. Broncos find a way to win it all
Since we're talking playoffs, I am a huge believer in this: If you make it to the dance, anything can happen. The Titans in 2019 are an example of that. The 49ers making it to the NFC Championship twice with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB are examples of that. The 2021 Cincinnati Bengals are an example of that. Last year's Jaguars are an example of that.
Heck, the 2015 Denver Broncos are an example of that.
When you get to the playoffs, anything is possible, so if we're projecting the Denver Broncos to be a playoff team in any best-case scenario kind of world, why not? Let's say the team does have a top-10 offense and they also rank in the top 10 of the NFL in sacks. Listen, if those things happen, this team can win in the playoffs, simply put.
The Broncos have a coach who has been there. They have a quarterback who has been there. They simply need to start playing consistent football. I get it, we haven't seen that in Denver for a long time, but we've seen in recent years that it's possible for things to come together quickly for teams under new coaching. Look at last year's Vikings, Jaguars, and Giants (among others).
Perhaps the Denver Broncos can be one of those teams in 2023.