It's been abundantly clear this season that the running game is not going to be of much help to rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but the numbers are painting a rather dire picture.
And if the Denver Broncos want to not only make the playoffs in 2024 but actually make some noise in the playoffs, they are going to have to figure something out. There are plenty of numbers you can look at when it comes to rushing success across the board in the NFL. Obviously, yards per carry is a big one. First down runs. Total rushing yards. Rushing touchdowns. And there are plenty of advanced metrics when it comes to yards after contact, yards before contact, and expected yards after contact.
Whatever metric you look at, the Denver Broncos are not doing overly well this season as a team. But in particular, the team's lead ball carrier -- Javonte Williams -- has been horrendously inefficient with his touches this season.
Shocking stat proves the Broncos run game is failing QB Bo Nix
Bo Nix leads the Denver Broncos this season with 31 first down runs. In fact, Nix has one of the highest first down percentages in the league when he takes off and runs, which has been a huge asset for the Denver offense at times and, frankly, is a huge reason why this team even has respectable rushing numbers this season.
But Nix leads the team with 31 first down runs. Javonte Williams is behind him heading into Week 16 with 26 first-down carries on 131 rushing attempts. That 20 percent first-down rate is 24th in the NFL among running backs with 120 or more carries.
To take it a step further, Williams is averaging -0.69 expected yards per rushing attempt (per Next Gen Stats), the third-worst number in the league right now.
As a result, Bo Nix has accounted for 71.4 percent of the Broncos' overall first downs this season, which is more than Lamar Jackson (69.9 percent) or Jalen Hurts (70.2 percent). Josh Allen, who has played at an MVP level all year long, accounts for nearly 79 percent of Buffalo's first downs this year but has two running backs (James Cook and Ray Davis) with more than 20 rushing first downs. And those guys combine for nearly 70.
The Broncos don't even feel like they can run the ball on 3rd and 1, apparently. One of Bo Nix's worst plays in the win vs. the Colts on Sunday was an ill-advised interception on 3rd-and-1.
So what is the solution going forward?
It seems simple, but the team needs to give Audric Estimé more carries and live with the results. Of course I say that now, and then Estimé's fumble problem could rear its ugly head and make me regret saying it. But at this point, is that not a risk you'd be willing to take? The Broncos need a jolt in the worst way, and since his impressive 14-carry performance against the Chiefs, Estimé has just 17 total carries in the last four games combined.
Whether it's blocking scheme or personnel at the running back position, even a combination of both, something's got to give for the Broncos down the stretch so they can get the running game going at the best possible time.