The Denver Broncos made arguably the most polarizing decision of Championship Weekend in the NFL Playoffs when they decided to go for it on a 4th-down play in the second quarter against the Patriots.
At the time, the Broncos had a dilemma on their hands: Kick the field goal and go up 10-0, or try to gain at least one yard, and potentially go up 14-0. Whiff on the fourth down play, and you're stuck at 7-0.
We all know the result of the play, which was a failure on the part of the Denver Broncos. And it's a huge landmark moment in the game because it ended up being the last time the Broncos would get inside the Patriots' 30, and the weather turned into a swirling blizzard in the second half. Former NFL tight end Greg Olsen, who now works for FOX as a color commentator (and is on their A-team, on top of it al), pointed out the brutal truth about this decision.
Greg Olsen points out brutal truth that Sean Payton ignored analytics to trust his gut
The irony here is the “analytics” actually said KICK!!
— Greg Olsen (@gregolsen88) January 26, 2026
But that’s not as fun I guess https://t.co/7OaTJxMCxE
So, not only did Sean Payton make the wrong decision in hindsight, but it wasn't like he was even trusting the analytics.
As many folks have pointed out since the game took place, the situation seems so straightforward when you put it on paper. The Broncos have their backup quarterback in the game with a chance to go up 10-0 at home, and the defense is playing out of its mind. Take the points.
That isn't just the prevailing opinion of conservative minds, but that is actually what analytics would have said to do in that moment.
And as frustrating as it can be to trust analytics situationally, understanding that all of the data and variables can't possibly be known in a moment, the analytics were right.
Sean Payton went with his gut in this situation, and to a degree, you have to respect that. A coach has to do what he believes is best for his team. But if Payton could have that one back, he's taking the points, there's no question about it.
Everybody knew the weather forecast for the weekend. Everybody knew the snow was going to. get worse as the game went along. And at the time, the Broncos were still up 7-0. But going for it on 4th-and-1 would have made a lot more sense if they were up 10-0 already, or 14-0.
To give yourself a two-score lead with the backup quarterback running the show would have given you such an advantage, and the fact that the Patriots ended up winning by three points makes that decision even more frustrating.
Olsen's point in his post is not necessarily to call out Sean Payton, but to point out the truth about the fact that analytics were not to blame in this situation. The hard truth is, Payton has to fall on the proverbial sword for trusting his gut and making a bad call in the moment.
