Deep dive into the tool Sean Payton used to prove everyone wrong about Bo Nix

People on social media and pundits around the world love to analyze the quarterback and criticize each thing they do. Thankfully for Broncos Country, our head coach came up with a formula on how to identify good and great quarterbacks.

Sean Payton has a simple yet effective formula that measures how well the quarterback can process plays and the speed at which they do it. In the ESPN article, Sean Payton told Seth Wickersham, "If a quarterback is sacked quite a bit in college, per drop back, you can improve that some. But it generally means the processing is a little delayed."

The formula (which I'll call the "P-Score") analyzes the negative plays against their total dropbacks. The negative plays consist of interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. Yes, sacks are included because Payton believes it is more of a quarterback stat than an offensive line stat (I tend to agree with that assessment, too).

Deep-diving the Sean Payton quarterback formula for Broncos QBs

The formula pans out to be: ((Sacks + Interceptions + Fumbles) ÷ Dropbacks) × 100% = P-Score. The lower the percentage, the better. By doing a bit of research myself, I found these to be the benchmarks of the formula:

I wanted to see how Broncos QBs stack up using that formula, from Bo Nix’s rookie season last year to a legend like Peyton Manning. Here’s what I found.

Bo Nix - 2024 Rookie Season

For being a rookie in the league and having the second-best score (excluding QBs that were once starters and got benched later in the season) is pretty impressive.

Nix came in at 6.1%, just behind the MVP Josh Allen at 4.6%.

Allen was the only quarterback that hit that elite/excellent benchmark and it proves why not only is he one of the best in the league, but the MVP last year.

Nix having that low of a number is incredible. Rookies having these numbers is unheard of and a perfect example is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year in Jayden Daniels.

His P-Score was at 10.2% last season, which categorizes towards the low-end of the average. The other rookies like Caleb Williams (12.4%) and Drake Maye (12.7%) are on the below-average side of the benchmark.

When Payton identified Nix as his quarterback in the 2024 draft, he ran the numbers, and the result was a staggering 2.3%. The second-highest quarterback was Daniels, and in the end, it was those two quarterbacks, in their rookie season, who had historic years with their teams.

Now, let's compare Nix to the past Denver quarterbacks like Russell Wilson's two years, Teddy Bridgewater's one year, and Peyton Manning's MVP season.

Russell Wilson - 2022 & 2023 Seasons

The departure of Russell Wilson was led by his below-average play and Payton made sure to cut ties at the right time to move this franchise along.

And the numbers back it up.

Starting with the 2022 season with Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson was below average with a P-Score of 12.65%. Between the sacks, interceptions, and fumbles, he had 72 negative plays in his first season with the Broncos.

Sean Payton took the job and everyone believed that the pairing would go great. As the season went along, the fanbase got to see the same thing Payton was seeing, which was the amount of negative plays (especially the sacks) Wilson endured that year.

Everyone pointed at Wilson throwing only eight interceptions, but he took 45 sacks and fumbled 10 times. The veteran's P-Score was 11.89%.

Nix as a rookie cut that score nearly in half and it led to the Broncos having a tremendous season and Nix breaking multiple records along the way.

Teddy Bridgewater - 2021 Season

Ever since Peyton Manning retired, Denver has been trying to find a stable suitor for that quarterback room, and Teddy Bridgewater has been named as that guy.

From Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Brett Rypien, and Jeff Driskel, Bridgewater was arguably the most successful quarterback out of the bunch, and the numbers show it.

The P-Score for Bridgewater was 8.26% which is categorized as average.

Another number which is on par from what has been said about his tenure in Denver and what we saw on the field.

He only had 476 dropbacks, but limited his negative plays with only a sum of 39.

Someone who had a ton of dropbacks and was on the fringe of the elite/excellent benchmark was the 2013 MVP.

Peyton Manning - 2013 Season MVP

The one and only Peyton Manning had the best season of all time with Denver in 2013, and no quarterback has yet to sniff the numbers he recorded that season.

When looking at the P-Score for Manning, it's on par again for the season he had.

An incredible 5.6% score for Manning in 2013 as he had an insane 677 dropbacks that season. More than a decade ago, teams were running the ball more than they do today, but Manning was ripping it every week and managed to nearly hit the elite/excellent benchmark.

Truly remarkable to see that number from Manning, and if I had to guess, he probably had similar numbers throughout the prime years of his career.

At the end of the day, Sean Payton’s formula is a straightforward way to gauge how often a quarterback puts the team at risk. Whether it’s a rookie like Bo Nix or a legend like Peyton Manning, keeping that number low means fewer mistakes and more chances to win.

Avoiding turnovers and sacks is just as important as making big plays.