Broncos’ race for the AFC’s top playoff seed might be easier than expected

Heading into their bye week, the Denver Broncos sit at 7-2, are winners of five in a row, and are in the lead position to claim a second consecutive AFC West title. Another playoff berth would be the third in three years for the duo of quarterback Bo Nix and head coach Sean Payton.

After almost a decade in the cellar of the NFL, the Broncos are finally establishing an era of elite football once again. There were moments of hope here and there, and the Broncos were even slept on after their 2024 wild-card season.

But after going 21-5 over their last 26 games, there is no doubt that this franchise is back among football's premier.

The Broncos' first six games proved they can hang with the NFL's elite

The Broncos' season has been far from easy and has made the team one of the most hotly debated topics on television since their brutal Week One drubbing by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos rebounded nicely from that game, however, and now look the part of a team that was an injury away from the Super Bowl.

Not only did the Broncos play a few tough games, but they played the single hardest schedule to start the season. Their schedule included the Los Angeles Rams before their season fell apart, the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, the current Super Bowl favorites San Francisco 49ers, the current AFC South powerhouse Jacksonville Jaguars, and a road matchup against the admittedly lifeless Los Angeles Chargers.

The Broncos not only survived the NFL's toughest start to the season this year, but thrived. Their 4-2 start showed that their 14-3 campaign last year was not a flukey one-off; they can absolutely contend for the AFC's top seed yet again, and hopes of a Lombardi Trophy in Denver are not far-fetched with this current roster. For the second year in a row, the Broncos enter the playoff push gunning for the top overall seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.

The Broncos' remaining strength of schedule defines the race for the AFC #1 seed

The "hard" part of Denver's schedule is over, and some of the softer teams they have are on deck. Notably, the Broncos still have two games against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have the league's worst defense, just traded away their starting quarterback (who was playing reasonably well) to turn for a rookie with no career starts, and have lost five of their last six games since starting an unexpected 3-0. Coming off their bye, the Broncos start the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC

Denver's schedule has a few other poor teams on it: the New York Jets have shifted away from their promising start and are once again the New York Jets, and the tanking Miami Dolphins are turning to rookie Kyle McCord after placing Malik Willis on injured reserve this past week. Their schedule only has two teams more than a game over .500 remaining on it: a trip to the Pittsburgh Steelers and a rematch in Denver with the Buffalo Bills.

Not counting the Steelers and Bills, two teams that are in the upper echelon of the AFC with the Broncos, the "bad" teams left on the Broncos' schedule are a combined 16-36 this season - an abysmal .306 winning percentage. If the Broncos can take advantage of this, and let's call that a 5-1 run of those six games, the Broncos would be sitting at 12-3. If they split the two games against the Steelers and the Bills, they would finish the season at 13-4.

The Broncos aren't the only team vying for the AFC's top seed with an easy remaining schedule. The Jacksonville Jaguars rank just behind Denver with the third-easiest remaining schedule in the entire league, with a .427 strength of schedule ahead of them.

The quirk here for the Jaguars is that they still have the Texans left, a team that many are still not sure is good or bad. If the Texans embark on a playoff run and continue their uphill trajectory, they could be a tough matchup in Week 15 for Jacksonville. Of note, that game would be scheduled to be played in Houston.

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