It really feels like the 2024 and 2025 NFL Seasons have gone by in a blur for the Denver Broncos. It really wasn't too long ago that many of us were wondering if the team made the right move to take Bo Nix in the 2024 NFL Draft.
And now, as he enters year three, many of us aren't going to be shocked if the Broncos win the Super Bowl this year. Luckily, this team appears to be well-positioned to win it all. On paper, this is the most talented team in the NFL, and may have been a broken ankle away from actually winning it all in 2025.
Well, the Broncos still have to deal with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, but, luckily, the Broncos chances at further AFC West dominance may have actually gotten easier thanks to the recent Patrick Mahomes contract extension.
Denver Broncos AFC West dominance could have gotten a lot easier
According to Over The Cap, Mahomes' new deal features a per-year average of $64 million and fully guaranteed money of $93.5 million. In 2026, his cap hit is just under $35 million, which is pretty typical for a highly paid quarterback.
But in 2027, that cap hit jumps to over $90 million. In 2028, the cap number jumps to $85.8 million. Those figures represent 27.6 percent of the cap in 2027, and 24.4 percent of the cap in 2028, once again, taken from Over The Cap's data.
Furthermore, OTC notes that as of now, the Chiefs are projected to have negative $16 million in cap space in 2027. Next year, not only is Mahomes' cap hit insanely high, but defensive tackle Chris Jones' cap hit is over $38 million, and guard Trey Smith's cap hit is just under $28 million.
The point here is that the Chiefs are spending a ton, a ton of money on a handful of players, and this becomes even truer with Mahomes' albatross of a deal in the picture. It's an ideal scenario for the Broncos, as this team is still able to take advantage of Nix being on his rookie contract, and even if he signs a massive extension next offseason, those high cap hits would likely not kick in until a couple of years into the deal.
Teams tend to structure deals to see the higher cap hits down the line, which, in theory, would give the team more time to spend before that high cap hit inevitably forces a team to penny-pinch. For the Broncos, the window is right now, and another awesome advantage this team has over the Chiefs is the overall roster talent advantage.
We've seen this on display in 2025, as the Broncos were able to sweep the Chiefs, and teams don't just luck into winning 14 regular season games. As quickly as this win-now era got started, it could end, though, as Super Bowl windows aren't guaranteed year after year.
The Broncos are poised to not only win the AFC West in 2026, but could even continue that in the future, as the Chiefs' salary cap situation is simply far from idea at the moment.
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