The Denver Broncos' blueprint to beating the Buffalo Bills may be painfully obvious, but easier said than done.
Over the past two seasons, the Broncos have been criticized for a lot of reasons. They've been criticized for not beating enough "good" teams, for playing down to competition, and for not passing the proverbial eye test.
Among other things, the one criticism the Broncos won't shake until something different happens on a stage like this is the inability of Bo Nix to beat great teams with certain parameters. As frustrating as the narratives may be, it's been pointed out that Nix's record against winning teams who score more than 17 points against the Broncos over the last two seasons is just 1-8.
Bo Nix must buck even more history in order for Broncos to beat Bills on Saturday
Bo Nix is 1-8 vs. winning teams that score more than 17 points.
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) January 15, 2026
This is a unique way to position the goalposts right here, but this is just the nature of the beast when it comes to the media against just about any quarterback.
Context does not matter in this instance. One of those eight losses was the first game of Nix's career, on the road against the Seahawks. Bo Nix did not blow a 10-point lead against the Chargers at the end of last season. One of those games is an overtime thriller in which the Broncos lost in overtime.
Nix gave his team a lead on the road against the Colts before allowing a game-winning field goal after a "leverage" penalty. Nix gave his team a seven-point 4th quarter lead against the Chargers before Justin Herbert made the most ridiculous throw of the season to hit Keenan Allen for a game-tying touchdown.
Yes, the Broncos have had their clocks cleaned by the Jaguars, Bills, and Ravens over the last two seasons. But this is one of the most disingenuous stats you will see posted without any additional commentary.
Nevertheless, what this proves is that the Broncos are 23-2 over the last two seasons when their opponent scores 17 points or less. And while that is far easier said than done against a quarterback like Josh Allen, it certainly makes the formula a bit easier on paper.
The one time the Broncos have won a game in which they've allowed more than 17 points to the opponent over the last two years was a handful of weeks ago against the Green Bay Packers. It was after he threw four touchdown passes in that game that Bo Nix coined the term "overdogs" in regards to the Broncos being home underdogs against the Packers.
Although the betting lines are constantly shifting, the Broncos also opened up the week as home underdogs against the Bills. We'll see if the overdogs come to play on Saturday in Denver.