It's almost hard to believe how good the Denver Broncos have been this year and how good of a position they will be in with a win over the Chiefs. Denver nearly beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead last year and are riding a two-game winning streak against KC at home.
Denver has finally been able to get over the hump in this regard, and with the Chiefs sitting at 5-4, the franchise seems to be on shaky grounds this year. Kansas City is 0-4 in one-score games after going 11-0 in 2024, but the Broncos are 6-2 in one-score games this year.
Right now, Denver is in a great spot in the AFC playoff picture, and that actually remains the case even with a loss in Week 11, but that's surely not how the team is thinking. When you look at their playoff odds with a win over the Chiefs, Denver is nearly-guaranteed a playoff spot.
Broncos' playoff odds rise to 97% with a win on Sunday over the Chiefs
On the NFL.com playoff picture, and the odds coming from NFL Next Gen Stats, the Denver Broncos currently have a 91% chance at the playoffs this year. If they lose, those odds drop to 87%, which is still quite high. With a win, though, the odds rise to 97%, which just about guarantees the Broncos a playoff spot for the second year in a row.
Two-straight appearances in the playoffs would be the first time that's happened since the 2014 and 2015 seasons, and it would also guarantee a winning record for the Broncos for the first time since those two seasons as well.
There truly is a lot on the line, but even if the Broncos were to lose, they'd still be in a solid position to win the AFC West this year. This isn't a "do or die" game, but it's quite close nonetheless. Fortunately, the Broncos are the better team, sport the better roster, and have been a lot better in one-score games.
They also haven't lost at home in over a year, so the momentum could not be more in their favor here in Week 11. Denver has won their last two games at home against Kansas City, and QB Patrick Mahomes hasn't exactly played all that well against Vance Joseph's defenses since the start of 2023.
No matter how you slice this, a win in Week 11 is a monumental step forward for the Broncos' franchise.