At the end of the day, the Denver Broncos losing to the Kansas City Chiefs was far from a surprise - it was an AFC West showdown in Kansas City - there isn't any shame in losing that type of game, but losing it in blowout fashion was a bit much.
Fortunately, the Broncos have 16 games left to figure this thing out, and it's really not a stretch to think that the team turns this entire thing around and is, let's say, 8-3 after 11 games. Denver has started slow each year of the Sean Payton era, starting 0-3 in 2023, 0-2 in 2024, and 1-2 in 2025.
It's a trend that Payton-coached teams have gone through for years, even dating back to his time with the New Orleans Saints. Bo Nix has also started slow, specifically struggling in September, but when you look at the rest of the months during a football season, it paints a much different picture.
Bo Nix starts slow, but the Denver Broncos QB plays his best when it matters the most
While Nix is not free from criticism and certainly deserves some of the blame for the loss, the Broncos' third-year QB does also really begin to turn it on after September. Here's how the monthly statistical and record breakout looks for Nix in September compared to all other months:
September
4-5
190/303
1,652 yards
12 total touchdowns
9 interceptions
74.6 passer rating
October
7-1
171/271
1,812 yards
19 total touchdowns
2 interceptions
97.9 passer rating
November
6-2
181/285
1,957 yards
12 total touchdowns
5 interceptions
90.3 passer rating
December and January
7-3
239/348
2,416 yards
21 total touchdowns
8 interceptions
96.9 passer rating
Stats via Pro Football Reference (regular season)
Just from September into October alone, Nix's passer rating jumps over 20 points. The Broncos have won just 44.4 percent of their September games since the start of 2024, but in all other months, Nix and the Broncos are 20-6, which is a stellar winning percentage of .769.
The Broncos win nearly 77 percent of their regular season games after September. The Broncos will play 14 regular season games from October through the rest of the regular season, so, if this percentage holds, they'd be on pace to win 11 of those remaining 14 games.
We can argue precisely why the Broncos start slow in September, but that isn't really the main idea here. Everyone would logically take part of the blame, but when you think about these splits and how different they are, it does at least present the best-case scenario.
If the Broncos had to be slow in a certain month during the regular season, it's ideal that it's September and that Nix and the team heat up as the season goes on. The opposite would be a disaster - Denver limping to the finish line and perhaps into the playoffs, barely.
And as for Nix specifically, this does further lean into the idea that he has this 'gamer' mindset about him when things get more urgent. We saw this play out time and time again during the 2025 season, and even into the playoffs.
Statistically, Nix plays better as the season goes on, and he helps his team win more. Not every quarterback is going to be excellent all the time, so if this is how the Nix era is going to go, for the most part, then so be it, right?
And as for 2026 in particular, the schedule really begins to soften up starting with the team's October 25th showdown against the Arizona Cardinals. The schedule does line up nicely for the Broncos to go on a run here, and it's also probably better than the team's toughest games are in the beginning of the year, not the end, as a ton can change from September into December.
Ideally, Denver is able to at least split their first six games, get to 3-3 heading into the Arizona game, and at that point, go in a run.
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