Denver Broncos: “Sleeper” David Shaw checks every box

Former Stanford HC David Shaw has been listed as a “Sleeper” candidate for the Denver Broncos head coaching job by a local insider recently. Does his resume show that he can win the job?

Broncos Country is in the midst of another coaching search. When we once zigged for Vic Fangio, we overcorrected and zagged for Nathaniel Hackett. Since Gary Kubiak walked out the door at Dove Valley, The Denver Broncos have been stuck in a vortex of coaching gaffes.

If you go back and look at any of the previous coaching cycles, the Broncos whiffed by NOT interviewing candidates that went on to be successful. Sean McDermott, Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, etc. For all of the salt lovers out there, you can throw in the Kyle Shanahan misfire as extra bits to rub into the wound.

Could David Shaw be the ideal candidate for the Denver Broncos?

It has been apparent for years now that the lack of leadership from the top has resulted in impulsive, impatient moves by the people in charge. With the Walton Penner ownership group firmly in place, they are looking to change the tide.

To that point, Greg Penner laid out what this ownership group is looking for in their next Head Coach (starts at the 8:10 mark of this video).

For those that can’t listen, here’s the quote.

"It starts with really strong leadership. I think that’s going to be the most critical factor here, in a Head Coach. Obviously, the X’s and O’s are important, but we need a strong leader for this organization that’s focused on winning.  It starts with culture, it’s instilling a sense of accountability, discipline, and we need an identity on offense.  The starting point has to be culture and leadership.  Those characteristics are what we’ll be focused on the most. -Greg Penner"

When reading about this upcoming candidate, please keep the above quote in mind.  Amongst the balloon-inflated hype surrounding candidates such as Sean Payton and Dan Quinn, one well-known college coach has snuck under the radar.

Amidst the hysteria around Jim Harbaugh, his former assistant rose the ranks of the Broncos’ search list. The critics will point to his recent record at Stanford or the fact that he’s never been an NFL HC before as reasons to discredit his candidacy.

Sure, those may be fair criticisms. However, that’s overlooking a resume that is otherwise sterling (and more than qualified to win this job).

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why David Shaw is not only a legitimate candidate in this search but a guy that could very well be leading the Broncos in 2023 and beyond.

Criteria #1: Strong Leadership

Does David Shaw have strong leadership? Considering he’s led the same program for 12 years with resounding success, I’d say yes.  Since returning to his alma mater in 2007, Shaw has been part of a drastic turnaround at Stanford, one that he continued when he became the Head Coach in 2011.  I don’t care where the guy is coaching. If he lasts over a decade at one program (especially in college), then that means he’s doing something right.

Before we get into his accolades at Palo Alto, let’s take a step back and look at Shaw’s working history.  Leadership is a trait that many people believe is inherent, and while I agree with that, I do believe that it can be cultivated for greater success.

Take a look at his college career at Stanford. The coach his Freshman year? Dennis Green, who soon went on to lead the Vikings for a decade (with 8 playoff appearances). Not enough of a name to intrigue you? How about the guy that coached Shaw for the rest of his college career?

Bill Walsh.

Yeah, that Bill Walsh.  The three-time Super Bowl-winning HC had another stint at Palo Alto following his time with the Niners in the 90s.  In that time, he became a coach and more importantly, a mentor figure to Shaw.  The latter details his relationship with the late coach in this video (which starts around the 12:20 mark).

When he went to the NFL, he managed to work alongside guys like Sean Payton (who’s publicly vouched for Shaw to get an NFL job before), Jon Gruden, and Brian Billick. What do they all have in common? Oh, yeah. They’re all Super Bowl-winning Head Coaches.

That’s FOUR Super Bowl-winning Head Coaches that he’s either played for or worked under (of course, Green and Harbaugh are the two others).  Does this mean that he’s a shoo-in to be the next great coach? No, but it can’t hurt to have such a list of mentors to draw from.

Shaw is a guy that’s been able to observe and learn from a variety of great leaders in his time. How they create a culture, rally a team, and ultimately, win championships.

Aside from being a part of a turnaround himself, he’s seen several others do it successfully.

Speaking of culture, let’s take a look at how his ability to cultivate a culture at Stanford bodes well for his candidacy in Denver.

Criteria #2: Create a Culture 

Establishing a culture within an organization is a term often bandied about, but rarely executed correctly.  Everybody wants a situation like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Green Bay Packers, but are more likely to end up like the Browns.

When it comes to building a strong culture, it starts with a vision.  Stanford has been long regarded as a prestigious University, one with high standards for their athletes.  That aspect of their culture has always been there. However, they didn’t become a perennial powerhouse on the turf until Shaw took the lead.

In his time at Stanford, he became the winningest coach in school history (96-54, with a 5-3 bowl record), three PAC-12 Championships, and was the PAC-12 Coach of the Year four times. Now, the detractors will say that Jim Harbaugh played a large role in that success.

Sure, he was the guy that spearheaded the program turnaround, but College Football is a fickle game. With recruiting being paramount (especially now with the NIL situation), many of Harbaugh’s recruits were out of Palo Alto not long after he left. You can’t rest on a coaches recruiting class for more than a few years.

It was Shaw who kept the program afloat and elevated it to another level.  You cannot discount his ability to identify, recruit, and coach talent

To that point, Stanford has produced 43 Draft picks since he took over. An average of 4 players per draft may not be a large number, compared to SEC schools, but Stanford was never going to compete with that kind of recruiting.

For a program that had 3 winning seasons in the decade before his regime, I’d say that it’s a good indicator of how well Shaw had established a culture. One with consistency, toughness, and competitiveness.

As for an offense, let’s look at how his offensive “identity” is what the Broncos could be looking for.

Criteria #3: An Identity on Offense

In a conference full of high-flying offenses, Stanford historically zagged with a physical, disciplined attack. In his 12 years at the helm, Shaw authored an offensive attack that was labeled “Intellectual Brutality”.

Behind a tough, disciplined OL (David DeCastro, Andrus Peat amongst them), RBs like Christian McCaffery, Bryce Love, and Tyler Gaffney bludgeoned their competition.  Considering how easily the Broncos have been pushed around in recent years, I’d say that we’d all gladly take that kind of physicality.

Not only that, Stanford has had a reputation for developing QBs that were NFL caliber.

Yes, Andrew Luck is the unicorn that any program would have been fortunate to have. It’s the guys that followed him that helped solidify a reputation behind Stanford’s development.

Guys like Kevin Hogan, Davis Mills, and now Tanner McKee are all guys that have/will be drafted (and play) in the NFL. Even KJ Costello had a cup of coffee in the pros.  Now, are any of them on pace to become franchise QBs? No. However, few programs have as many QBs make it in the league. Let’s not forget how much success Alabama had with guys like Greg McElroy and AJ McCarron, guys who barely saw the field in the pros.

The remnants of the old West Coast system that Shaw employs have helped mold QBs that are fundamentally better at basic pro concepts than many other QBs coming into the NFL. While some of their ceilings have been lower than others, it’s important to note that Stanford’s system can be QB-friendly.

To that point, there were two NFL OCs last year that have ties to Stanford. Greg Roman and Pep Hamilton were on different staffs with Shaw, the latter being his OC from 2011-2012.

Since leaving Stanford, their resumes speak for themselves. Roman’s had enormous success with the 49ers, Bills, and Ravens. Meanwhile, Hamilton went on to be Luck’s coordinator in Indy,  Herbert’s QB coach his rookie year (where he broke multiple rookie records), and coordinated Davis Mills’s surprisingly solid rookie year in Houston.

Considering the amount of success his colleagues have had in the NFL, it’s safe to say that Shaw’s physical attack could adapt to the pros.

Now, for all of the naysayers to Shaw’s candidacy, let’s break down those concerns and look at the context behind them.

Concerns 

Alright, I’ve stated multiple reasons as to why David Shaw could be a good candidate for the Denver Broncos. Now, let’s address those concerns that some fans might have about his candidacy.

Concern #1: “He just rode Jim Harbaugh’s coattails!”

Well, that one’s complicated. Could you say that about the first year or two of his tenure? Sure. As I stated before, though, college football is fast and furious. You’re changing rosters every few years.  The idea that he “rode someone’s coattails” for over a dozen years is nonsense. Much of the work done to elevate Stanford’s football program (and keep it competitive) lies within Shaw’s ability to coach. Period.

Concern #2: “He’s never been a Head Coach in the NFL!”

Yup. That much is true. Do you know who else was never an NFL Head Coach prior to this year? Brian Daboll, Kevin O’Connell, Mike McDaniel. What do they all have in common? Oh, they all made the playoffs in their maiden voyages.

Sure, being a Head Coach in the NFL is vastly different than in college. I’ll be the first to say that I’m not a fan of hiring college coaches. Shaw is a rare exception, though. Not only does he have 150 games as a Head Coach under his belt, but he also spent nearly a decade in the NFL as an assistant. This is a guy that’s been around long enough to know what to do, how to do it, and what his team needs to succeed.

Concern #3: “Maybe the game has passed him by.” 

This one to me is ridiculous. Let me ask you this. Did the game pass Dick Vermeil by, who left coaching for 15 years after walking away from the Eagles? Considering a Super Bowl win in St. Louis and continued success in KC upon his return, I’d say that he re-adapted to the game just fine.

To further dispel this notion, if the game has “passed Shaw by”, then why is he asked to join the NFL in their coverage of the Draft every year? If he wasn’t able to identify talent for the modern game, why continually invite a guy like that to the stage?  Just because his program has had some issues the last few years, doesn’t mean he’s suddenly washed. To that point…

Concern #4: “He won 14 games in the last 4 seasons!”

Yeah. His teams went 14-28 over the last four seasons. On the surface, that’s a bad stretch. However, we need to apply context to this situation. Over the pandemic, Stanford had one of the toughest COVID regulations to navigate. Their 2020 and 2021 offseason were impacted by strict measures, hampering the team’s ability to have an entire off-season program. 2022 was the first time in several years that they were able to run a full off-season program and ramp up for the season.

Surely, that is going to affect how your team will operate. As if the lack of resources to recruit weren’t enough, having strict pandemic measures only squeezed the program to its leanest point in years.

So with all that, let’s sum up David Shaw as a candidate for the Denver Broncos.

Conclusion

So, who is David Shaw? Based on what we learned today, he’s an experienced, intelligent, disciplined coach that is well-regarded around the NFL. While it has been a few years, this is a coach that was chased by NFL teams several times to make the jump up.

Yes, he has deep ties to several members of the Denver Broncos ownership group. That is a big advantage for him. However, let’s not discredit his candidacy or make that the only reason that “he’s in the search”.

Lost in this whole process is what Greg Penner said at the press conference a few weeks back. How many other candidates really fit the categories like David Shaw does? Not many, by my calculation.  I’ve kept an open mind throughout this whole search, so I’m not married to Shaw and his prospects. However, I do think it would be foolish to overlook him as just “a Jim Harbaugh” guy or “only an OC candidate”.

He’s legit and there’s too much smoke at this point to deny that.

3 reasons Sean Payton should not coach the Broncos

The Sean Payton sweepstakes will wrap up, likely in the near future, but should the Denver Broncos truly have interest in the coach?

Broncos Country, we’ll soon have a new leader. After today, hopefully, you are more receptive to David Shaw potentially being that guy.