The Denver Broncos are on their bye week, but their first game out of the bye is against the Tennessee Titans, who they match up well with. With a win heading into their bye, the Denver Broncos show a glimmer of hope for the rest of the season.
The offense cannot be this bad all year, right? Right??? Well, the offense looked noticeably better against a solid Jaguars defense than they had in prior weeks. Perhaps the offensive staff and players can come together to create some of the magic we saw in London.
Their next test after the bye week is at Nissan Stadium against the Tennessee Titans, who are 5-2 and running away with the AFC South title. They started 0-2 and have since won five games in a row. Their 5-2 record is intimidating, but I think the broncos match up well with the Titans and should be able to keep the game close if nothing else.
Snapshot of the 2022 Tennessee Titans
The 5-2 Titans have a -6 point differential. They have a +2 turnover differential. They have the 24th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL, scoring just 18.9 points per game. They do rank 9th in scoring defense, allowing 19.7 points per game.
Digging further, it’s clear why their offense has suffered. Derrick Henry leads them in rushing with 755 yards, and the next highest on their rushing totals list is Dontrell Hillard with just 109 yards. As for receiving, they are getting virtually nothing. Robert Woods leads them with just 256 yards, and Hillard ranks second on the team as a running back with 144 yards.
They have six players with at least 100 receiving yards, but no one threatening on the outside. First-round pick Treylon Burks has been a non-factor this year. They rank 16th in the NFL in sacks, so they take down the quarterback with average frequency.
Their pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL, but they have the top-ranked rushing defense. Another key stat to mention is their “Expected W-L” which is a stat that was created by Pro Football Reference.
Their Expected W-L sits at 3.3-3.7, which, rounded, gives them a record of 3-4 instead of 5-2, which is two whole games worse than where they stand. This tells us two things:
- They are not nearly as good as their record indicates
- They make the right plays at the right time
The Titans are not some sort of juggernaut. They have the same record as the Chiefs, but no one would say that the Titans and Chiefs are at the same level.
What does the Denver Broncos’ Expected W-L say?
Now, what does the Broncos’ Expected W-L stand at? According to Pro Football Reference, the Broncos Expected W-L is 3.6-4.4, which is a 4-4 record rounded out. Analytically, the Broncos should be 4-4, and the Titans should be 3-4.
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Seeing what the Titans and Broncos have done this year respectively would match up with that thinking. The Denver Broncos have some very close losses that legitimately could have gone either way, and the Titans have also been on the other side of that, winning extremely close games that they easily could have lost.