The Denver Broncos’ 2022 offseason will likely go down in the history books. With all the new changes, what are the most likely scenarios for the team?
I think there is so much more variance in how the Denver Broncos’ 2022 season will go than what us fans have experienced in the recent past. Most of us kind of accepted that the 2021 season wouldn’t be much of anything.
I think a lot of us also thought the same thing when John Elway brought in Joe Flacco and Case Keenum. The Broncos were expected to be a low floor, low ceiling type of team. So the team finishing 5-11, 7-9, 7-10, etc. was expected. Since there has been so much change this offseason, I think the range of how the team can do is so much more open.
The positives appear to greatly outweigh the negatives if there are any. Russell Wilson will give the team elite quarterback play, while Nathaniel Hackett will bring the high energy and young offensive mind that has allowed many teams to see success.
So, being as honest and unbiased as possible, what would be the three most likely 2022 season scenarios for the Denver Broncos?
Three most likely season scenarios for the Denver Broncos: Third most likely 2022 finish
Team finishes 9-8, but doesn’t have it all quite together yet
I could see a world where this happens, even though I think it’s unlikely. With a completely new coaching staff and a new player at the most important position, there is an argument to be made that the Broncos just can’t put it together in year one.
Finishing 9-8 would be cool, I guess, because we’d see the team with a winning record for the first time since 2016, but a 9-8 finish with this roster would personally indicate to me that the team left quite a bit on the field.
I would expect a ton of very close losses finishing 9-8, along with a 2-4 or even worse record in the AFC West.
Remember, Denver has the easiest schedule in the AFC West, and games against the Seahawks, Texans, Panthers, Jaguars, and Jets. They’ve got a clear path to double-digit wins and a postseason berth, but there’s also a possibility that this happens.
Three most likely season scenarios for the Denver Broncos: Second most likely 2022 finish
Broncos are on fire throughout the season, finish 12-5 and win AFC West
I like the Broncos’ chances to win the division. I think most, if not everything has to go right, but I find this more likely than the team outright missing the playoffs in my last slide.
Like I mentioned above, the team has the easiest schedule in the AFC West, which I think is a massive advantage that we aren’t talking about enough. They’ve also got a bye week right in the middle of the season, which is great, and several games playing poor teams.
Russell Wilson has won 65.82 percent of his regular season games. Over a 17-game season, that’s 11.18 games. So, we should expect the team to win 11 games in 2022, but Russell Wilson has achieved a greater than 65.82 percent winning percentage in five of his 10 seasons played.
This would mean that Wilson performs above expected about half the time. So, why can’t the Broncos be a team that benefits from Wilson’s “better than average” half, as opposed to his career average half?
I maintain that the Denver Broncos 2022 roster is the best offensive roster Wilson has played with. I maintain that the Broncos will score a ton of points, have a sound defense, and win a ton of games. This formula will lead them to winning the division in 2022.
Three most likely season scenarios for the Denver Broncos: Most likely finish
Denver Broncos win 10 or 11 games, make playoffs as a Wild Card team
I find this to be the most likely scenario for the 2022 Denver Broncos. My official prediction for the team is an 11-6 regular season finish, with one playoff win to advance to the divisional round.
This would be a success, even though the team would tell you it wouldn’t be when the season ended.
When Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay in 2020, the Buccaneers won four more games in the regular season from 2019 to 2020.
The Rams won two more games in the regular season when Matthew Stafford arrived as well.
So, could the Broncos win three more regular season games from 2021 into 2022? Sure, I think that’s wildly in reach. A 10-7 record isn’t overly impressive, but it’s still very good, especially with how talented the conference is.
A 10-7 or 11-6 record would be a great starting point for the new era of Broncos’ football, and it would allow the team to identify the main weaknesses of the club. A 10-7 or 11-6 team isn’t going to have many weaknesses, so finishing with one of these records could propel them to even bigger heights in 2023.