Predicting a full stat-line for Broncos TE Albert Okwuegbunam in 2022
Denver Broncos projected starting tight end, Albert Okwuegbunam, might be in for a big year. Let’s try and project his 2022 stat-line.
The Denver Broncos offense should be humming next year. It could be especially good if Albert Okwuegbunam has a breakout year that many are projecting.
In his career, Russell Wilson hasn’t used his tight ends a ton, but that may be a different story for 2022.
Like I did with Wilson himself and the running backs, I want to take a stab at projecting a full season for the Denver Broncos’ potential TE1.
While Dulcich may overtake him eventually, Albert Okwuegbunam is in a perfect position to solidify the position for the near future.
Nathaniel Hackett took over as the Packers’ offensive coordinator in 2019, so I want to look back at the tight end production under his coordination.
Jimmy Graham led the way for the Packers in 2019 with 38 receptions, 447 yards, and three touchdowns.
In 2020, Robert Tonyan led the way with 52 receptions, 586 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
In 2021, Josiah Deguara led the way with 25 receptions, 245 yards, and two touchdowns.
If we average out all of these numbers, the average TE1 production during Nathaniel Hackett’s tenure as the Packers’ OC, we get 38 receptions, 426 yards, and five touchdowns.
In his career, Albert Okwuegbunam is averaging 2.4 receptions per game, which is 40.8 over a 17-game season.
So, if we take the 38 receptions we got from Green Bay, and a rounded 41 we have from Albert O’s career average, we’d get 39.5, or 40 receptions.
Okwuegbunam’s career yards per reception is 10.3. In three years as the Packers’ OC, their tight ends averaged 11.2 yards per reception.
If we average those two numbers out, we’d get an average of 10.8 yards per reception.
So far, I’ll predict that Albert O catches 40 receptions for 432 yards.
Albert O averages 1.5 touchdowns per season, and the Packers averaged five touchdowns per season from their first-string tight ends.
The average of five and 1.5 is 3.25, or three touchdown receptions.
So, in its entirety, I’ll project that Albert Okwuegbunam catches 40 passes for 432 yards and three touchdowns in 2022.
These aren’t major stats, but it would be a noticeable improvement from his first two years, and given that he was a former 4th-round pick, I think these would be very solid numbers from big Albert O.
Catching 40 passes actually sounds like quite a bit, too.
I would expect Albert Okwuegbunam to be a very solid red zone target, so perhaps his touchdown count could be higher than what I would project, but we must also consider the number of mouths that Russell Wilson is going to need to feed.
Albert O might be a fourth or fifth option in the passing game, so I would limit the expectations until we see him consistently produce on the field.