It will be an unpopular opinion in Broncos Country, but having Russell Wilson at quarterback does not guarantee the team makes the playoffs in 2022.
There is no doubt that the Denver Broncos are better at the quarterback position than they have been in many years. Russell Wilson is one of the more valuable quarterbacks in the league and he brings with him a wealth of experience.
He can make all of the throws, he’s mobile and his ability to improvise when a play starts to break down is second to none. It’s easy to see why there is so much excitement surrounding this team. But there are reasons why things may not get off to the amazing start everyone is expecting.
Fans are growing quite impatient with a team that hasn’t qualified for the postseason since 2015 and when the news came through that the Broncos had traded for Wilson, a collective sigh of relief came from the fanbase as if to say, at least that’s over.
But is it?
The Broncos play in the toughest division in football
This is the most obvious reason, but the AFC West has four teams and all four teams are solid.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the league every year since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback. They did lose Tyreek Hill but they still have Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid. They are going to be alright.
They have also beaten the Broncos 13 times in a row.
The Las Vegas Raiders have had the Broncos’ number lately as well and they signed Chandler Jones in free agency before trading for Davante Adams, perhaps the best wide receiver in football.
Then you have the Los Angeles Chargers who from top to bottom, might have the best overall roster in the division. After trading for Khalil Mack and then signing J.C. Jackson as a free agent, there doesn’t appear to be a weakness on that team.
It is going to be quite difficult to navigate through this division and the Broncos are going to need more than Wilson to beat these teams. Unless all four AFC West teams make the playoffs, one of these teams is going to be on the outside looking in.
The rest of the AFC is stacked
And it’s not just the AFC West that is going to be difficult. The entire conference is loaded.
The Buffalo Bills might be the favorites to win it all this year and for good reason. They have one of the league’s best quarterbacks and a talented roster on both sides of the ball.
The Miami Dolphins were the team that landed Tyreek Hill and the New England Patriots still have Bill Belichick as their coach. As long as they do, they can’t be counted out.
Both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts have pretty complete rosters. The Titans were the No.1 seed in the AFC last year and as long as they can ride Derrick Henry and play some defense, they will always be a tough team to beat.
The Colts should have been a playoff team last season and Jonathan Taylor was in the conversation for league MVP. Matt Ryan should be a better quarterback than Carson Wentz as well.
In the AFC North, every team is a playoff contender.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will usher in a new era now that Ben Roethlisberger has retired but head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.
The Cleveland Browns will have big expectations with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Baltimore Ravens will be back in contention and they had what was probably the best draft in the league.
Then you have the Cincinnati Bengals who won the AFC last year and as long as they have Joe Burrow, the guy with the “it” factor that no one has had since maybe Tom Brady, they will be in the race as well.
In fact, the only teams in the AFC I would say won’t be playoff contenders in 2022 are the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets. That leaves 13 teams battling for seven playoff spots.
The schedule is difficult
Every time the schedule is released, fans look at how things are going to shake out for their team and optimism starts to brew over. But the Broncos will face a difficult schedule in 2022.
Not only will the Broncos face their AFC West opponents a total of six times, but they also play against the NFC West as part of the non-conference schedule. Outside of the Seattle Seahawks, none of those teams should be looked at as an automatic win.
The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are teams in “win now” mode and the Los Angeles Rams, who the Broncos play on the road on Christmas Day, are the defending champs.
The Broncos will also play key games against the Colts, Titans and Ravens and all three of those games could have playoff implications at some point in the season.
The Broncos don’t have very many “easy” games on their slate. If you were to browse over the schedule with an unbiased eye, they only have about five games that you could say they will almost certainly win.
And in the NFL, where “any given Sunday” is absolutely a thing, there may not even be that many.
New coach, new culture
It’s tough not to get excited about the team having Nathaniel Hackett as its new head coach. From what we have seen thus far, he absolutely looks like he was the right choice to replace Vic Fangio.
But in doing so, Hackett, a first-time head coach, has an entire culture to change in Denver.
As he implements his new system with a quarterback he hasn’t worked with before, he has to also get rid of the losing ways the team has gotten used to.
Since winning Super Bowl 50, the Broncos have a combined record of 39-58, good for a .402 winning percentage. Though the NFL often sees a team go from worst in the division one season to first the next year, it will be an uphill climb for Hackett.
It may take some time for things to start to jell with this new system. Wilson might be the perfect guy to come in and try to get it off the ground and running, there could still be a lot of trial and error.
In a division as tough as the AFC West and with a schedule that features what figures to be a good amount of contending opponents, even a small dose of trial and error could cost the Broncos a game or two and that could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.
Broncos fans won’t want to hear that, because the moment Wilson was obtained, Super Bowl talks were already underway. But at least for this upcoming season, perhaps expectations should be a bit tempered.