The Denver Broncos’ offensive efforts have simmered down after an encouraging start to the season. In back-to-back weeks they have looked like one of the worst offenses in the league. Here are some things play-caller Pat Shurmur could do to improve.
Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was hired to be an experienced offensive play-caller so Head Coach Vic Fangio did not have to spend as much time with the offense as he did the year prior. With impressive stints in Minnesota and Philadelphia as an Offensive Coordinator, in theory, it was a very good hire initially. After a lackluster and injury-riddled 2020 season, Shurmur’s offense had an efficient first few weeks of the 2021 season.
Weeks 1-3, the Broncos’ dropback EPA was 0.601, 4th in the NFL. Their EPA/play was 0.428, good for 6th in the NFL. These numbers were a far cry from what they had been from a season ago and gave fans some optimism going forward.
The past two weeks have been the polar opposite. Shurmur and the offense have not been able to do much of anything, and the momentum has seemed to be shifting backward. Denver’s EPA/play these two weeks is -0.542, 2nd worst in the league while their dropback EPA is -0.772, comfortably the worst in the league.
Denver Broncos: The issue at Offensive Coordinator
The most glaring issue the offense has presented is their performance on third downs. They average the longest distance to gain with a success rate of 28.57%. Again, comfortably the worst in the league.
The Broncos have averaged 8.4 yards needed on 2nd down and 8.0 yards needed on 3rd down this year. Only the MIN offense has been worse. pic.twitter.com/YT35AydTbx
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) October 11, 2021
To me, the reasoning behind their poor 3rd down efficiency is Shurmur’s play calling on first and second down. He has shown too much predictability with his calls, often opting for running plays instead of quick game concepts to get the ball out of Teddy Bridgewater’s hands fast for an easy completion and easy yards, setting up manageable third downs.
First or second down is the perfect time to stretch the defense horizontally and widen out the linebackers, making them defend sideline to sideline while attacking the voids they leave behind. Not only does this shorten the distance needed on third down, but it is also an opportunity to get your playmakers in space.
Now, Shurmur is currently not being dealt the best hand. With Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler missing from the offense, the Denver Broncos don’t really have anyone that can win inside. Both Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton are lengthy, physical X receivers with the strongest part of their game being winning vertically. Noah Fant is probably the best weapon to attack defenses inside, which brings me to my next point.
Far too often, Shurmur seems to ignore players on his offense. Noah Fant didn’t see a target in the game against the Steelers until the second half, which is questionable, to say the least. A player with the skillset of Fant should be getting manufactured targets on concepts that get him the ball with the opportunity to make a play, especially on an offense with two key players down due to injury.
Another thing I’d like to see from Shurmur more is schematically giving his guys advantageous leverage. Whether it be by isolating matchups by way of formation, or motion. Part of the reason Davante Adams is the best receiver in the league is because of the way Matt LaFleur moves him around and puts him in positions to win. LaFleur uses motion to guarantee Adams free releases and forces the defenders into a position where it is near impossible to guard him.
The Chargers and Joe Lombardi force defenses into disadvantageous positions by way of condensed formations. Against condensed formations, defensive play callers are in a conflict deciding whether or not to have their corners in a press alignment. If they do, then the corner is a liability in the running game based off of leverage. If they don’t, the receivers have a free release and space to run to.
The most frustrating part of watching the offense is seeing a player make a big play or two, then disappearing from the game. In back-to-back weeks, rookie Javonte Williams has made an explosive play, then gotten minimal touches after it. Riding the hot hand is not something we see as much as we should from Shurmur.
Denver Broncos: 5 inexcusable mistakes in loss against Steelers
The Denver Broncos not only lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they also made some seriously inexcusable mistakes in the process.
Pat Shurmur has a golden opportunity to redeem himself, going up against a Las Vegas Raiders team missing their two starting interior defensive lineman, and disfunction from top to bottom.