Teddy Bridgewater and the deep ball: An enduring question

Teddy Bridgewater has medals on his chest. First-round draft pick. Pro Bowler. Starting Quarterback in the National Football League.

Yet since the outset of his NFL career, detractors have complained about one aspect of his game: the deep ball. In seven years in the league, he hasn’t shaken being labeled as an average arm talent. It started with the NFL’s official draft profile in 2014.

“Compensates for a lack of elite arm talent and prototype measurables with the intangibles and football intelligence that could elevate the other 52 players around him.”

Now if we go back to scouting reports for say, Tom Brady:

“Lacks a really strong arm, can’t drive the ball downfield”

Or Drew Brees:

“Lacks accuracy and touch on his long throws”

Or Joe Montana:

“The word was Joe didn’t have a rocket for an arm like some of the other QB’s in the draft”

I don’t care how you rank the top QB’s of all time, all three of these guys are on the list. A perceived lack of arm strength early in their careers didn’t stop Brady, Brees, or Montana from winning Super Bowls, topping leaderboards and leading the league as elite passers. There’s more to quarterbacking than doing your best Uncle Rico impression.

Broncos fans should know well by now that a “big arm” does not necessarily equate to success on the field. If it did, we’d all be throwing our Paxton Lynch jersey’s over hoodies to watch the Broncos play every January. But we’re not.

Teddy Bridgewater excels in the areas the Broncos severely lacked in recent years, in vision, touch, and pocket awareness. The question remains, however: Just how good is Teddy’s arm?

In terms of precision and touch, we’ve heard rave reviews, but I wanted to see how well he can really push it deep on film. It’s been a focal point of criticism throughout his career, from Minnesota to New Orleans and Carolina. There are countless metrics attempting to gauge QB’s verticality, but sometimes it’s best to just stick to film.

We’ve already seen his short/intermediate efficiency early and often in the preseason, so I’ve sought out examples of him pushing the ball past 20 yards, not counting YAC.

2021 Preseason Pass to Jerry Jeudy, 20 Yards

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1429268502020431872

2019 Pass to Michael Thomas, 34 yards.

2020 TD Pass to DJ Moore, 45 yards

2018 Preseason TD to Charles Johnson: ~50 yards

It seems pretty apparent to me that Teddy can sling it deep if he needs to.

Teddy Bridgewater might not have the camera-juking velocity of Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, but if someone’s open down the field, he can hit them.

Now, while Mahomes tossed a 78-yard bomb at his pro day, and Vinny Testaverde set an NFL Quarterback Challenge record with an 80-yard throw on an open field back in ’88, the longest pass ever measured in a game was a 68.6-yard pass from Mahomes to Tyreek Hill in the 2018 preseason.

Having a range of around 50 yards is more than ample firepower in the NFL, and Teddy is fully capable of that. After having seen evidence of his deep ball, I’m far less concerned about his ability to put it up for the likes of KJ Hamler, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick over the top.

Now that raw strength has been addressed, the remaining issue is a willingness to put it deep. For this, metrics can be helpful. ftnfantasy.com records the average depth of target, or aDOT, which measures how deep receivers were when targeted by a QB, by air yards and targets. In 2020, Teddy Bridgewater’s aDOT was 7.17 yards, putting him just behind NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (7.37) and ahead of Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert (7.15).

Nobody is complaining about how Rodgers and Herbert don’t stretch the field. This isn’t to say there’s no validity to concerns about Teddy’s deep game, but I believe those are rooted more in impatience with his patient style of play. He takes what defenses give him. Most often in football, receivers are open in the short-intermediate areas of the field. So that’s who Teddy Bridgewater hits. Scheme up some deep shots, however and he’s more than capable of sending it up.

While he may not be able to make some of the off-platform, highlight-reel throws that Broncos country has drooled over Drew Lock for, I don’t expect the Denver passing game to lose the deep component with #5 under center.

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Looking into this has allayed my concerns about the Bridgewater era, and there’s a lot to be excited about here. Vic lauded Teddy’s “Tom-Brady” like the ability to read the field, and with his vision, athleticism, and football IQ, I’m eager to see what our new quarterback can bring to the field.