Denver Broncos fantasy mailbag: Evaluating quarterbacks
By Brett Chaves
Drew Lock
It’s safe to say that Drew Lock has not been the best fantasy quarterback.
Over the span of the 2020 season, Lock averaged around 14 points per game in most P.P.R. fantasy leagues. In terms of fantasy quarterback rankings, he was at the very bottom of the list. According to fantasypros.com, Drew Lock was ranked 34th out of all NFL quarterbacks in fantasy, just behind his competition in Teddy Bridgewater.
Drew Lock is obviously not Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but he is still a young quarterback with a strong supporting cast. Much of his offense was out last season due to opt-outs and injuries, making his statistics seem much worse than they should’ve been.
Lock was, “thrown into the fire.”
To add to things, Lock was thrown into a whole new offensive scheme when the Broncos replaced Rich Scangarello with former Giants Head Coach Pat Shurmur. The new offensive playbook relied on a deeper pass game rather than the short, “dump and go” style that was familiar in the past. Therefore, there were a lot of cases where Lock ran into interceptions trying to force the deep ball.
Now that Lock has a full offseason with OTA’s to adjust to Coach Shurmur’s scheme, there’s a chance he produces much higher numbers in 2021. His mechanics have also improved especially with his footwork. When he drops back, he no longer throws off of his back foot. Instead, he uses his forward momentum to push the ball farther and much more accurate. This could prove to be much more successful in Shurmur’s offense, especially in situations with play-action.
Aaron Rodgers had the most passing attempts (159) off of play action without an interception last year.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) July 9, 2021
The second most?
Drew Lock.
Lock had 103 play action passing attempts & didn't throw an INT. Lock's passer rating off PA was 112.5.
His rating w/o PA was 35th in the NFL.
The squad is here to help
Not only is Lock back to being 100% healthy, but his weapons are back as well. Veteran wide receiver Courtland Sutton is returning from a major knee injury, and Noah Fant is back to 100% after dealing with multiple injuries. Other offensive line pieces such as Graham Glasgow and newly-signed Bobby Massie are also up to speed and ready to protect Lock.
When all of these components are put together, Lock could be seeing consistent numbers similar to what we saw versus Carolina and Atlanta last season. 2-4 touchdowns per game with a rating around 100-110 is where Lock could shine as a fantasy quarterback. These numbers should translate to around 20-22 fantasy points per week.
Obviously, Lock has to get through training camp first and prove he is the better starting option over Teddy Bridgewater. However, if he can get past this hurdle, he could be in for a sleeper fantasy season.