Denver Broncos 2021 draft: Analyzing instant impact for every pick

The 2021 NFL Draft is in the books which brings a bittersweet feeling. The Draft may be over, but the analysis of each selection for the Denver Broncos has only just begun.

The Denver Broncos’ 2021 class is a fascinating one, not only for the surprising direction George Paton took with a number of his selections but because of the athletes he picked.

There were plenty of pivots throughout this draft for Paton and the Denver Broncos’ front office. Paton was relatively transparent after the draft about not exactly getting every player they were targeting throughout the draft, being sniped a few times for offensive tackles, missing out on Jaelan Phillips, and having to change course when trade value was simply not there.

Ultimately, it’s safe to say that Paton came away with tremendous value throughout the top three rounds and that his selections are destined to make an instant impact in one way or another.

Let’s look through each pick and try to figure out what that instant impact might look like in 2021.

1 (9). Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

The immediate impact of the Denver Broncos’ top draft selection is hard to predict at this particular point in time.

Surtain was an outside corner at Alabama primarily with some responsibilities in Nick Saban’s “STAR” defensive back (nickel DB/LB spot) role but he was almost exclusively playing on the outside, where he was dominant.

The situation in Denver makes Surtain’s role — or potential role — very intriguing.

The Broncos went out in free agency and signed Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby. They have Bryce Callahan, who was the team’s best corner in 2020, back 100 percent from injury. They also have last year’s third-round pick Michael Ojemudia who started games in 2020 and played well at times.

Surtain likely will slide his way into the rotation as a matchup chess piece in his rookie season for Vic Fangio’s defense, but that is pure speculation. Who knows? We could see Surtain move back and play some safety. We could see him get work as a dime linebacker.

Assuming everyone is healthy, it would be surprising if the Denver Broncos didn’t spend a lot of time this season in a dime defense where Surtain played inside as a nickel.

What will be really fascinating to see is if Surtain gets tasked with matching up on guys like Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. He has the chops to play press-man and keep up with those kinds of guys.

If that’s how the Denver Broncos deploy him, it’s going to be an absolute blast to watch with two seasoned pros on the outside and Callahan in the nickel.

2 (35). Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

Javonte Williams is the only player in George Paton’s first draft class as general manager that he actually moved up to get.

The Denver Broncos didn’t want the Miami Dolphins to be able to sit comfortably at their second-round pick and just let Williams fall into their laps, so they did what was required to move up and get him.

What is Williams’ immediate impact with the Denver Broncos?

Watch and see.

The way Williams accelerates through contact is special. As a former linebacker (high school), Williams’ physical style of play shines through in his game and he’s an absolute load in the open field.

Williams is a big-bodied back but he is able to use balance and agility to keep his feet when making sharp cuts and not lose much speed. A lot of times, thicker backs are clunky in their movements but Williams is a fun combination of smooth and aggressive.

It shouldn’t really matter to anyone who is RB1 on the depth chart or who runs out of the tunnel with the rest of the starting lineup, Williams has a good shot to lead the Broncos’ offense in total touches as a rookie.

3 (98). Quinn Meinerz, OL, Wisconsin-Whitewater

Quinn Meinerz may not look like it, but he’s one of the best athletes pound-for-pound on the entire Denver Broncos’ roster.

Given a second-round grade by many NFL Draft pundits, it was a shocker that Meinerz was still on the board at pick 98 overall despite the fact that Wisconsin-Whitewater did not have a season for him to play in 2020.

It is of course difficult to evaluate small-school prospects especially one of the most athletic prospects ever at a position when they are going up against lesser competition, but the way Meinerz dominated in Senior Bowl practices showed that he’s not about to be slighted his opportunity to be a rookie starter in the NFL.

The question for the Denver Broncos is — where could that be?

Incumbent starters on the interior offensive line are Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry III, and Graham Glasgow.

Those players are no slouches, and the Broncos also have last year’s sixth-round pick Netane Muti who projects as a potential starter at some point in the relatively near future.

Where do you put Meinerz?

Well, initially, the Denver Broncos will let him compete at the center position. Lloyd Cushenberry had to take his lumps as a rookie given he was drafted for need as a third-round pick. He improved and progressed as the year went along, but there’s no question that Meinerz could come in and get his job this season.

Ideally, you’d have an entirely home-grown unit on the interior, with all due respect to Graham Glasgow, who struggled some with injuries in his first year with the team.

Whether it’s at center or guard, expect Meinerz to be a starter on the Denver Broncos’ interior line by the 2022 season.

3 (105). Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State

When you’re looking at bang for your buck, there might not have been a better selection in the 2021 NFL Draft for the Denver Broncos than Baron Browning.

Routinely picked in the second round of mock drafts, getting Browning at pick number 105 was an absolute steal by George Paton and a very fun move for every Denver Broncos fan.

The Broncos have desperately needed an off-ball linebacker with Browning’s skill set and traits.

What are those skills and traits?

Well, Browning — like just about every selection in this draft class for the Denver Broncos — is an elite athlete for his position. The best of the best.

The Denver Broncos were rumored all throughout the draft season to be a potential fit for Penn State’s Micah Parsons, and after watching Baron Browning, you couldn’t help but wonder why the Broncos wouldn’t pass on Parsons and his off-field concerns to just take this guy, who offers similar skills and even more athleticism, as crazy as that sounds.

Browning has significant potential as a pass rusher early on with the Denver Broncos, and he could factor into the starting lineup if he can beat out Josey Jewell in a camp competition.

Special teams will be an obvious early and immediate fit for Browning, but getting this guy on the field early on as a situational rusher is essential.

5 (152). Caden Sterns, S, Texas

The Denver Broncos didn’t have a pick in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, so Caden Sterns was their top selection on day three in the fifth round (152nd overall).

Although Sterns’ production dropped off significantly from his freshman year to his junior year at Texas, his talent is undeniable and his athleticism is off the charts.

At 6-feet, 202 pounds, Sterns posted some impressive measurables at the Texas pro day:

• 4.40 in the 40-yard dash
• 42-inch vertical jump
• 6.96 in the 3-cone drill
• 10’8″ broad jump

Those speed and explosiveness metrics put Sterns in the top 10 percent at his position group all-time in terms of raw athletic talent.

Although his production dipped, this former top high school recruit in the state of Texas balled out as a freshman with four interceptions. The Denver Broncos will work to revive that potential and will certainly hope that Sterns is a starting safety candidate after Kareem Jackson potentially departs in the 2022 offseason as a free agent.

5 (164). Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana

The Denver Broncos got a tremendous steal with Jamar Johnson in the fifth round out of Indiana.

This kid didn’t even play 500 snaps of defense at Indiana, but when he did play, he was outstanding. He had seven interceptions in under 50 passes thrown into his coverage. That means this guy was picking off a pass every six or seven times a ball was thrown his way.

In 2020, his tackling was poor, to put it kindly. Johnson didn’t take the best angles and at times looked like he was really protecting himself from contact.

Interestingly enough, it seemed like that only really happened when he was coming up to make tackles from the deep free safety spot. When Johnson was lined up as a nickel or blitzer, he was aggressive and physical.

The Denver Broncos will work to extract that from him more consistently as soon as possible.

Because of his ball skills and savvy in coverage, it would not shock me one bit if Johnson is immediately thrown into the rotation at safety, dime linebacker, or in the nickel in certain packages.

Vic Fangio has enough veterans to throw out onto the field but Johnson has the kind of reactive quickness when the ball is in the air to be an asset at creating turnovers in his rookie season similar to what we saw from Justin Simmons in his rookie season.

Imagining what we saw from Johnson this past year in tandem with Justin Simmons in Vic Fangio’s two-high shell safety looks with the talent at corner in front of them is really exciting.

6 (219). Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Following his 2019 season at Auburn, it appeared as though Seth Williams was on a second- or third-round trajectory as a big-time weapon from the X receiver position.

Williams is 6-foot-3, 211 pounds, and ran a 4.49 at the Auburn pro day in the 40-yard dash. He also posted a 37-inch vertical jump.

Williams’ impressive combination of size, ball skills at the catch point, run blocking, and special teams ability are all very fun when he’s “on”, but he struggles with consistency in his routes, creating separation, and he had a case of the drops this past season.

Watching some of these plays, those drops come as a surprise and they should be able to be easily corrected as Williams had to deal with only 50 percent of passes coming his direction even being determined catchable last year.

His all-around tools are very fun, and his best tape you can put up with some of the best receivers in this class. The issue is, unlike Ja’Marr Chase and other guys picked in the top two rounds, Williams lacked that desired consistency.

Still, he can be an asset for the Denver Broncos on special teams and he could easily factor into the top seven at the rotation as a rookie, perhaps having a few games where he gets a shot like Tyrie Cleveland did a season ago.

7 (237). Kary Vincent Jr., CB, LSU

Despite being a starter in every NFL defense, the nickel defensive back position is still devalued when it comes to the NFL Draft.

Most years, you will see teams prioritize outside cornerbacks, and that’s not without good reason. Those guys might play 1000 snaps compared to the slot cornerback playing 600-700, but those 700 snaps are still extremely important and slot corners play a huge role nowadays having to be some of the quickest players on the team.

Kary Vincent Jr. was the fourth defensive back among the Denver Broncos’ 2021 NFL Draft class and he’s certainly one of the smaller players they added at 5-foot-10, 186 pounds.

With that being said, Vincent brings the juice when he’s out on the field from that slot position.

Vincent’s game has always been highlighted by his tremendous speed — he ran a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at LSU — but it’s his play speed combined with his reactive quickness and instincts that make him a candidate to replace Bryce Callahan as the slot sooner rather than later in Denver.

In 39 games (19 starts) at LSU, Vincent picked off six passes and broke up 22 overall. He had a season-high 47 tackles, four interceptions, and 13 pass breakups in LSU’s banner 2019 season.

Adding Vincent out of the slot with Patrick Surtain as an outside corner gives the Denver Broncos a duo that would have been envied by any college football coach in the country.

With special teams ability and versatility to play some safety, I think Kary Vincent Jr. is going to factor into the Denver Broncos’ rotation later rather than sooner because of their depth there, but who knows? Maybe he could steal a job from someone at training camp.

He has the look of a future top nickel corner.

7 (239). Jonathon Cooper, EDGE, Ohio State

Not every player in the 2021 NFL Draft was under-drafted, but it’s safe to say that Jonathon Cooper was probably picked a bit lower than he should have been.

NFL Network’s top draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah had Cooper ranked as the 120th overall prospect in the class. Some might think, well, that’s just a one-off.

No, Pro Football Focus also had Cooper as the 122nd overall player in the class and had him graded as one of the best pass rushers in the entire country last season.

Cooper saved his best for last at Ohio State after being mostly buried on the depth chart his first few years on campus and then suffering an injury in 2019.

In 2020, he played some of his best games against Ohio State’s toughest competition and really put some good stuff out there against some more great competition at the Senior Bowl.

He’s got some explosiveness to him and is really strong in the upper body, proving that by throwing up 28 bench press reps at the Ohio State pro day.

Just like his Ohio State teammate Baron Browning, Cooper was a five-star high school recruit and obviously has tremendous talent. I think he’s a step or two (at least) ahead of where Derrek Tuszka was coming in from North Dakota State as a rookie in 2020.

With that being the case, I wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see Cooper win a job in training camp and get himself a spot in the rotation off the edge.

7 (253). Marquiss Spencer, DL, Mississippi State

The Denver Broncos finished out their draft with back-to-back picks on the defensive front, and Marquiss Spencer was the final pick of the 2021 NFL Draft class overall.

At 6-foot-4, over 300 pounds, Spencer has tremendous size as a base defensive end for the 3-4 defensive alignment and intriguing potential to kick inside on passing downs.

At his massive size, Spencer ran a 4.85 in the 40-yard dash, which is extremely impressive (top 8 percentile). His overall athletic metrics are all in the top 25 percent at the defensive line position group so the Denver Broncos are once again banking on athletic upside here from Spencer.

It’s great to see his athleticism shine considering he’s a few years removed from ACL surgery (2018). He played some of his best ball at Mississippi State this past season, racking up multiple sacks against LSU in the season opener and then being named defensive lineman of the week after his performance against Vanderbilt which included an interception.

The Broncos have pretty strong depth on the defensive line, so Spencer faces an uphill battle to make the team in the first place.

Denver Broncos: Day 3 draft picks provide depth, huge upside

The Denver Broncos had another successful day of the 2021 NFL Draft on day three, adding plenty of depth and upside on offense and defense.

I think he’s a strong practice squad candidate unless he makes himself uncuttable in training camp and in the preseason.