Making the Deal
In order for the Denver Broncos to move up to draft their guy, the draft board would have to fall perfectly. Quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones are probably going to go 1,2,3. That leaves two quarterbacks on the board, Justin Fields and Trey Lance.
As it stands today, it seems Trey Lance is the one that the Denver Broncos would target. It’s my best guess that the Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts, and the Cincinnati Bengals select a wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase.
This is where the Broncos, if they want to, should make their move.
In Paton’s pre-draft press conference on Thursday afternoon, he stated that he recently chatted with Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier. He separately noted that he has talked with a team about trading back. It is no secret that the Dolphins want to select an Alabama receiver, I am leaning towards Jaylen Waddle.
With the Dolphins being the ones who made the call, this may give the Broncos some leverage. As the Dolphins could move down to nine, and still select their guy. Moving down any further would jeopardize the Dolphins’ chances at selecting Waddle or Smith.
The sixth overall spot is the sweet spot. Paton knows the Dolphins want to trade back, so this could be the way Paton moves up with giving up minimum capital.
What would this cost the Denver Broncos?
In my best guess, I would say this could cost the Broncos just a 3rd round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. According to the Draft Tekk trade value chart, the Broncos first-round pick and the third-round pick would be worth 1,585 points. The 6th overall pick is worth 1,600 points.
This would leave the Denver Broncos with the following selections in the 2021 NFL Draft:
- 6th overall pick
- 40th overall pick
- 114th overall pick
- 152nd overall pick
- 191st overall pick
- 237th overall pick
- 239th overall pick
- 253rd overall pick
While this would be the draft picks the Broncos would have after the Dolphins trade, Paton could be poised to make a few more moves. As he said in his presser, he would prefer to have more darts to throw at the bullseye, as it gives you more chances of hitting.
With the 6th overall pick, the Denver Broncos select quarterback, Trey Lance, North Dakota State.
Justin Fields could certainly be an option here, but I would guess the Broncos select the unrefined and unfinished project in Trey Lance. His potential is incredible, while his chance at being a bust is also incredible.
Only giving up a third-round pick to maneuver up and select Lance is worth the risk here. If Lance could reach anything near his potential the Broncos would walk away with a steal.