After the first week of the 2021 NFL offseason, where do things stand for the Denver Broncos and new GM George Paton?
We’ve got a tracker for all of the moves Paton is making in his first year on the job and it’s clear after one week that Paton doesn’t plan on letting the Broncos sit idly by in the 2021 season.
The man who took over for John Elway has been aggressive in his approach early on, striking up contracts with key in-house players like Justin Simmons and Shelby Harris as well as bringing in key contributors from the outside in cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller.
Even with just a couple of big moves through free agency and to keep key in-house players, it really looks like Paton is setting up the roster to at least contend for a playoff spot in the AFC in 2021.
In 2020, with an injury-riddled and COVID-impacted roster, the Broncos were within just six points of beating the Kansas City Chiefs and they were even closer than that were it not for a dropped pass on a potential game-tying or game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.
Like Paton said at his introductory presser, he feels he inherited something of a “sleeping giant” with this Broncos roster and he wasn’t joking around. He picked up Von Miller’s contract option and was aggressive about pursuing the former All-Pro Fuller to boost the secondary.
The offense will be getting back former big-money free agent Ja’Wuan James, whose 2021 and beyond with Paton calling the shots should be viewed as a second life of sorts with this team.
The way the Broncos’ roster is constructed, you can’t help but wonder if Paton is setting himself up for a possible move up the 2021 NFL Draft board for a quarterback. There are a couple of ways you could read into Paton’s initial wave of moves, but there is no question that it feels more likely now than it did even one week ago that the Broncos could trade up for a quarterback in a class where five guys are expected to go at some point in the first round.
I want to take a look at a few reasons (call them tea leaves, if you will) why the Broncos moving up for a quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft feels more likely after the initial wave of free agency.
1. The team has passed on alternative QB options to this point
So far in the 2021 free agency signing period, George Paton and the Denver Broncos front office have not been “in” on the veteran quarterback market.
There are plenty of reports out there that the Broncos would be interested in a possible Deshaun Watson trade should he be made available by the Houston Texans, but right now, there’s been no movement on that front and Watson is being accused of some very serious things.
Who knows what will ultimately come of all that, but with guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Mitchell Trubisky, and others, the Broncos have not even been rumored to have an interest.
What does that tell you?
Well, the Broncos could still upgrade their depth at the quarterback position through trades for guys like Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles, or maybe Marcus Mariota (unless he’s cut) but are any of those guys going to be easily stepping into this offense day one as the starter over Drew Lock?
Even the free agents that are already off the board would have had to compete with Lock for the job. The Broncos looked into trading for Matthew Stafford but were outbid by the Los Angeles Rams. They didn’t have any interest in Carson Wentz.
It seems like George Paton has a clear set of tiers at the position and he’s willing to upgrade via the veteran route if the guy is a substantial upgrade. It doesn’t appear he’s interested all that much in QB purgatory.
If Paton only views the lofty trade candidates as veteran upgrades, it could speak volumes to what he thinks of this year’s draft class. He might see players in this class as better additions to the QB room over the available crop of free agent or lower-level trade veterans.
If you bring in a hedge that can’t beat out Lock but Lock still isn’t improved the way you thought, then you’re in a worse situation next offseason.
If you bring in a hedge that can beat out Lock, then you made the wrong call not going up and drafting a quarterback.
The hedge options that could beat out Lock in a true camp battle are likely off the board at this point, depending on how high your opinion is of Nick Foles who lost a camp battle to Mitch Trubisky last year, or Gardner Minshew, whose situation in Jacksonville is oddly similar to that of Drew Lock, just maybe a year ahead.
Marcus Mariota? Well, he was shut out the last time he came to Denver and benched for Ryan Tannehill, who proved to the Titans they were spinning their wheels by going to the AFC Championship game after their QB change.
The Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson trades should be considered absolute pipe dreams at this point, even if one or both are ultimately moved.
If that’s the case, the draft would get a shove forward on the priority list.
2. George Paton hitting the QB Pro Day circuit
George Paton has already attended Trey Lance’s Pro Day in Fargo, ND. He told the media that he plans on making the rounds and attending more, also noting that QB is definitely in play for the Broncos’ first-round pick.
While some general managers like to do “due diligence” and go check out quarterback pro days regardless if they plan on selecting one in the first round, it would be ignoring the reality of the Broncos’ legitimate potential to draft a QB in the first round to simply say this is due diligence.
Paton and director of scouting Brian Stark went along with quarterbacks coach Mike Shula to watch Lance throw at his Pro Day. They will almost undoubtedly do the same with Mac Jones’ pro day on March 23 and both Zach Wilson and Justin Fields’ pro days later in the month.
Attending a pro day does not mean you are guaranteed to be drafting a guy, especially in a year where you need to get all the in-person time you can since the pre-draft process is not the same as usual with in-person visits or a Scouting Combine. With that being said, you also don’t just take the team plane out to a pro day for the fun of it or to chum with other coaches and executives.
Paton has noted in the past that he likes to see quarterbacks operate on the field as one of his primary evaluating tools, and since that is part of his evaluation process, it stands to reason that he’s making the rounds at top QB pro days for more than just due diligence.
When asked about watching all of the veteran players sign with other teams in free agency, Paton responded:
"We’re monitoring it. We’ve evaluated all the quarterbacks. We like Drew Lock. We have a plan in place and there’s free agency, there’s the draft, there’s trades, there’s a lot of ways to acquire a quarterback. Fortunately, we have a quarterback here and we have a nice quarterback room. We do want to bring in competition. We are not going to force it. We are monitoring the market right now. George Paton (via Broncos PR)"
That quote from Paton shows some strong support for Lock, but also what does he mean about having a “plan in place”? That is an interesting quote from the Broncos GM right there that makes you wonder if his “plan” is more of the long-term, draft variety.
3. Other possible 1st-round directions
If the Broncos don’t go with a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, what direction are they going to go?
With the team signing two big-time veterans at cornerback in Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller along with re-signing Justin Simmons and paying Shelby Harris (as well as picking up Von Miller’s contract option), what position are you going with that 9th overall pick that makes sense?
The offensive tackle position could make some sense if the Broncos are just done with Ja’Wuan James, but there’s been no indication of that to this point and actually, the team has said the opposite publicly.
The Broncos could trade down and take a safety or linebacker who could contribute year one, no question about it, but would they pass on a chance at a possible franchise QB for that scenario?
It all depends on what they really think about Drew Lock behind closed doors. Publicly, the Broncos have been both complimentary and critical of Lock. They have talked like they believe he can take the next step and be a long-term option at QB for them, but they have not simply brushed Lock’s struggles and inconsistency under the rug, either.
What happens if you bring in an average or below average hedge at QB in 2021, you can’t trade for a player like Watson or Russell Wilson, and Lock doesn’t take that step forward?
Then, you are back at the drawing board for quarterback in 2022 when you could have already taken that step in 2021.
Again, the team’s honest opinion of Drew Lock is of the utmost importance here. If they are willing to bank the immediate and long-term future on Lock taking that next step, then there’s no reason to take a quarterback in round one.
The thing is, you could just as easily read into the Broncos’ lack of involvement on free agent quarterbacks as a vote of confidence in Lock if their guy in the draft (or via trade) is not available. In that case, you would have to wonder if George Paton has a “guy” at quarterback in this class that he loves, would he be okay not trading up for him or would he feel a need to be aggressive and go get him?
It all comes down to his convictions on Lock.
Broncos free agency: Tracking every move in George Paton’s first year
The Denver Broncos have been making some big splashes in new general manager George Paton's first year on the job. We track them all.
If they aren’t as confident in Lock taking a step as they are in one of these QB prospects becoming “the guy”, then all bets are off.