There is no question about the fact that the Denver Broncos have some big free agent decisions on in-house players to be made in the coming weeks.
The biggest name with an expired contract in Denver right now is safety Justin Simmons, and new general manager George Paton has assured fans that he’s not going to let his good, young players get out of town.
At this point, the Broncos’ front office is undoubtedly crunching numbers and trying to figure out how to field the best possible team in 2021 and beyond. Part of that equation will include considering re-signing some of the team’s key unrestricted free agents, but the Broncos will obviously have to make big decisions on restricted free agents as well.
For those not familiar with the difference between unrestricted and restricted free agents, restricted free agents are defined by the NFL as follows:
"Restricted free agent (RFA): A player with three accrued seasons and an expired contract. RFAs are free to negotiate and sign with any team, but their original team can offer them one of various qualifying offers (“tenders”) that come with the right of first refusal and/or draft-pick compensation. via NFL free agency glossary"
Those “tenders” have varying levels of price and draft pick compensation.
1st round tender: One year, $4.641 million
2nd round tender: One year, $3.259 million
Original round tender: One year, $2.133 million
First right of refusal tender: One year, $2.133 million
If the Broncos give one of their restricted free agents a first-round tender and that player signs an offer sheet with another team, the Broncos have the ability to match or receive a first-round pick in return, and so forth down the list.
Let’s take a look at the Broncos’ RFAs for the 2021 offseason and try to predict what the team will do with each guy.
Denver Broncos 2021 restricted free agent predictions
1. Phillip Lindsay, RB (2021 season age: 27)
Phillip Lindsay is a two-time 1,000-yard rusher for the Denver Broncos (2018-19) who made history by making the Pro Bowl as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2018.
Lindsay has consistently been one of the Broncos’ best offensive players and one of their most consistent, as well, but he is not without flaw.
Lindsay has struggled to establish himself as a consistent threat in the passing game and he’s almost always taken off the field for pass protection. In addition to the on-field issues, Lindsay has had injuries in each of his first three NFL seasons.
There was talk last offseason that the Broncos could reward Lindsay for his first two seasons of excellent play, but those talks never went anywhere.
Still, Lindsay’s value to the team is undeniable. The Broncos should not have to think long about giving Lindsay the second-round tender, and that figure would put him in the top 25 of the NFL in single-year or average annual value on a contract.
Lindsay could ask the team for a trade in the 2021 offseason if he’s not happy with his role in the Pat Shurmur offense, or the Broncos could decide he’s not the best fit for the offense moving forward and give him the original-round tender and dare another team to sign him to a long-term deal to save a million bucks.
Either way, the smart move for the Broncos is the second-round tender. However, this could be a messier situation than any in Broncos Country want it to be.
Prediction: 2nd-round tender
Denver Broncos 2021 restricted free agent predictions
2. Tim Patrick, WR (2021 season age: 27-28)
Although they weren’t the first team to sign him out of Utah, the Denver Broncos have essentially overseen the development of Tim Patrick as an NFL wide receiver in full.
Patrick came to Denver a few years back as a member of the San Francisco 49ers when the two teams had intrasquad practices, and he made enough of an impression for the Broncos to bring him onto the practice squad in the fall of 2017.
Patrick cracked the active roster in 2018 and played all 16 games, making a few splash contributions here and there and some in really big moments.
In 2019, Patrick suffered an injury that caused him to miss half of the season, but again he made big plays in spurts for the offense.
In 2020, when Courtland Sutton went down with a season-ending knee injury, Patrick stepped up in a big way, leading the Broncos with six touchdown receptions and showing his best stuff yet.
Right now at the age of 27 going on 28 would be the perfect time for Patrick to cash in with a big contract but fortune favors the Broncos on the business end of this one. The Broncos have seen exactly the value Patrick brings to the offense. When Courtland Sutton went down, he was a very capable fill-in as the “X” receiver.
The Broncos can have that from Patrick again in 2021 for just over $3 million and if some team wants to throw a huge contract at Patrick, would the Broncos really turn down a second-round draft pick?
This is a win-win situation for all parties. The Broncos stand a pretty good chance (if not a guarantee) to have Patrick back by slapping him with a second-round tender. That would mean all seven of the team’s top receivers would be under contract and projected to return next season.
Depending on what he is looking for, the Broncos could try to extend Patrick and keep him as one of their top four receivers for the foreseeable future, but he’s probably going to want to have a chance to test the market at some point.
The biggest issue is, with Courtland Sutton coming back from injury in 2021, what will Patrick’s production be like? His value to the Broncos is tremendous, so don’t be shocked to see Denver at least try to get him on a longer-term contract.
Prediction: 2nd-round tender
Denver Broncos 2021 restricted free agent predictions
3. Alexander Johnson, LB (2021 season age: 29)
After being out of football for a few years due to off-field issues while he was a member of the Tennessee Volunteers program, Alexander Johnson signed with the Denver Broncos in 2018 as an undrafted free agent.
At the age of 26, the Broncos essentially stashed Johnson on the roster for the whole 2018 season and no one really knew what the team’s plans for him were beyond that.
When Vic Fangio was hired in 2019, Johnson rode the pine for the first four games of the season before getting into the starting lineup and making an immediate and noticeable impact.
Johnson’s ability to defend the run is among the best in the league at this point and he has developed into a very solid all-around defender, though he clearly excels attacking the line of scrimmage as opposed to playing in space.
In two seasons in Vic Fangio’s defense, Johnson has 217 total tackles, nine tackles for loss, nine quarterback hits, four forced fumbles, 2.5 sacks, five pass breakups, and an interception.
He’s been extremely productive as a three-down defender and even though he will already be 30 in late December, he’s valuable enough to the Broncos to keep around on the second-round tender.
As deep as the 2021 free agent and NFL Draft class are at the linebacker position, there’s probably no way a team is giving up a second-round pick for Johnson, especially at the age of 29 going on 30.
The Broncos should actually try to get a three-year contract with Johnson done if they can, keeping him with the team through his age 31 season. They could probably get him for a reasonable price, but the starting point is obviously right around $3.2 million.
Prediction: 2nd-round tender
Denver Broncos 2021 restricted free agent predictions
4. Austin Calitro, LB (2021 season age: 27)
The Broncos don’t have to tender every restricted free agent they have. Not every guy has played at the level of being worth more than $2 million at their position.
Last year, the Broncos paid about $750,000 for Austin Calitro and he played strictly on special teams in 13 games racking up three total tackles.
Prediction: Non-tendered
5. Josh Watson, LB (2021 season age: 25)
The Broncos picked up Watson as an undrafted player out of Colorado State in 2019 and so far, he’s been a tough player for the team to keep off the roster.
He has played 17 total games over two seasons with the Broncos and has almost played entirely on special teams (3 defensive snaps in 2020).
Prediction: Non-tendered
6. Kevin Toliver, CB (2021 season age: 25-26)
Toliver has some history with Vic Fangio and the coaching staff in Denver, but despite the team’s woes at cornerback he was only able to see action in two games before suffering an injury of his own.
Once thought of very highly as a prospect, Toliver will likely have to re-sign for the minimum to get a shot in Denver or elsewhere in 2021.
Prediction: Non-tendered
7. Trey Marshall, S (2021 season age: 25)
Trey Marshall’s situation could be directly tied to what the Broncos do with either Justin Simmons or Kareem Jackson. This team has virtually no safety depth but Marshall has not proven himself to be a $2.133 million type of player at this point.
Denver Broncos: 2021 free agents with connections to watch for
The Denver Broncos could load up their roster for the 2021 season with smart signings that have coaching connections in Denver already.
The Broncos will probably try to bring Marshall back because they think highly of him, but I don’t see him getting tendered.
Prediction: Non-tendered