The Denver Broncos called but ultimately didn’t wind up acquiring veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford in a trade.
The mere fact that they called and even had specific proposals on the table with the Detroit Lions has sent many in Broncos Country into a frenzy.
If the Broncos were in pursuit of Stafford, what does it mean for the remainder of the 2021 offseason as far as the quarterback position is concerned?
Some see the Broncos’ interest in Stafford as a clear sign that the team is ready to move on from Drew Lock. Others heard George Paton say at his introductory press conference that he would be “in every deal” while being aggressive but not reckless, and see it as due diligence.
In reality, what does the Broncos’ pursuit of Stafford really mean for all involved? What does it mean for Lock?
Let’s examine all of the facts and reports, and draw conclusions based on that.
What does the Broncos’ pursuit of Matthew Stafford mean for Drew Lock?
Stafford was pre-destined for the Los Angeles Rams
It is important to know this. Let me explain.
When the news broke that the Lions would be trading Stafford and that the two parties had mutually agreed to part ways, everyone started putting together their lists of teams that made sense.
The Denver Broncos were one, for obvious reasons.
There is no doubt that Stafford — based on what we see and know about him — would be an upgrade over Drew Lock in terms of his consistency at the position right now, and the former number one overall pick competed for more than a decade against Broncos GM George Paton, who spent the last 14 years with the Minnesota Vikings, so there is a familiarity there (at least, to a degree).
It made sense for the Broncos to inquire about Stafford and it made sense for Stafford to have the Broncos high on his preferred list of teams to be traded to with their improved offensive line, the plethora of offensive skill talent, and the defensive expertise of Vic Fangio at head coach.
But were the Broncos ever really contenders to acquire him? Did Stafford’s “list” of teams he preferred to be traded to even exceed one?
Here is the documented and reported evidence of Denver’s involvement:
- The Broncos were involved in trade talks with the Lions.
- The Broncos were not among the finalist teams.
- The Broncos’ offer to Detroit was a pick swap
- The Lions asked the Broncos for Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy, and another player
- The Broncos did not want to include Lock or any players
If the Denver Broncos were willing to do a pick swap with the Lions, that could have been something like Denver’s 9th pick for Detroit’s 41st pick and Stafford, or something similar to that, but if the value was equivalent to a late-first as Albert Breer reported, the Broncos might not have included their 2021 first-round selection at all. Perhaps they offered their 40th pick and a 2022 second-round pick.
Though we don’t know the exact details of the Broncos’ trade offer, we know that they “weren’t playing in the neighborhood” of what it would have taken to get Stafford from Detroit.
Other teams, however, were playing it that way.
The Washington Football Team (19th pick) and Carolina Panthers (8th pick) both offered their 2021 first-round picks and more to Detroit, per Breer’s report. The Indianapolis Colts reportedly offered the 21st overall selection. Those teams made Detroit offers they probably shouldn’t have refused.
Why would the Lions not take those deals, which seem better than what they got from the Rams (first-round picks in 2022, 2023; third-round pick in 2021, QB Jared Goff)?
The reason is likely not singular, but ultimately it comes down to — as many deals in the NFL do — relationships. The Detroit Lions hired Ray Farmer as their general manager a few weeks ago, and you’ll never guess where he was working before he was hired by Detroit.
That’s right — with the Los Angeles Rams.
There is no question that Stafford wanted to play with Sean McVay, and the Rams were motivated to make it happen as McVay reciprocated that interest. The Lions likely were able to get additional capital from the Rams because of the interest from other teams, but does anyone really think Detroit was trading Stafford anywhere else given the relationships in the front offices of both clubs combined with Stafford’s desire to be in Los Angeles?
The Broncos — or any other team — would have had to throw Detroit an offer that was absolutely ridiculous to steer them away from trading Stafford to the Rams.
Broncos involvement in Matthew Stafford trade talks – Drew Lock impact
Matthew Stafford and the 2021 NFL Draft
There were a number of Broncos fans who came out on Twitter after the report that Denver was involved in Matthew Stafford trade talks who feel like their involvement absolutely means the Broncos are moving on from Drew Lock and actively seeking that quarterback upgrade through every possible avenue.
The Broncos’ pursuit of Stafford, however, should be viewed as mutually exclusive of how “in” they will be on 2021 NFL Draft prospects.
Stafford is a veteran who will be 33 years old this season. He’s played at a relatively high level since he came into the league in 2009. Those types of players don’t always become available, so the Broncos would have been fools not to call Detroit to find out the asking price.
If Stafford was available for the right price, that is worth a call and worth the chance to acquire the player. Does that mean that the Broncos are undoubtedly looking toward the 2021 NFL Draft class in the first round now? No. Those two things are separate because the players in question are vastly different.
The 2021 NFL Draft class does not necessarily present the Denver Broncos with an immediate upgrade over Drew Lock in the form of a known commodity (which Stafford is). Trevor Lawrence will be off the board with the first pick to Jacksonville.
Zach Wilson looks like he’s pulled away as QB and pick two of the 2021 NFL Draft, whether the Jets keep that pick or ultimately trade it to the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson.
That leaves the Broncos with Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and possibly Mac Jones atop this year’s quarterback crop.
Those guys are all talented, but each also has their own individual struggles and shortcomings. Fields struggles with processing speed and that was evident in games against Indiana, Northwestern, and Alabama in the National Championship game.
Lance has a 17-game sample at North Dakota State where he was on team Goliath that trounced every opponent in its path. In that 17 game sample, Lance had a completion percentage of 56.5 percent or worse six times. Yes, he has tremendous mobility and is a threat to run, but are you banking your job as the GM in year one on that upside?
Mac Jones, for his athletic limitations, doesn’t seem to have any real glaring flaws in his game. But he doesn’t have the same type of arm talent as the stars in the NFL today, nor can he create as a runner like some of them can. He’s “just” a good pocket passer, offense operator, and hard worker. Who knows, maybe he’s the most sensible option in the 2021 NFL Draft.
The Broncos’ pursuit of Matthew Stafford doesn’t mean the team is for sure interested in the 2021 NFL Draft crop of quarterbacks. What it means is, if the right veteran is available for the right price, the team might be interested.
Broncos Stafford pursuit: Impact on Drew Lock
Why would the Broncos not just trade him?
The Denver Broncos could have acquired Stafford if they had put together the right package to get the deal done.
When the package the Lions wanted included Drew Lock, the Broncos backed off.
Initially, I thought for certain that the Lions’ desire for Lock was just a formality, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. The Broncos had hoped to keep Lock as a backup to Stafford and see his development down the line.
Lock wouldn't have been gone. He'd have been the backup and they'd have continued trying to develop him.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) February 1, 2021
If the Broncos’ willingness to talk trade with the Lions speaks volumes about Drew Lock in a negative way, then the fact that they wanted to keep him and wouldn’t include him in a trade should speak volumes about him in a positive way as well.
Obviously, the new front office led by George Paton has had time to review film, confer with the coaching staff, and Paton has undoubtedly had time to bounce ideas off of Elway. After those discussions, the team still decided they had a chance to upgrade with Stafford for the right price.
The idea of adding Stafford had to be explored, if for no other reason than there could be pressure for Vic Fangio to win games in 2021. But if the Broncos drew a line in the sand with the price on Stafford, they could have very easily allowed reports of their involvement to leak just to “push” Lock.
As much as the pressure is on the coaching staff in 2021, the pressure is on Drew Lock as well. The 2020 offseason was unprecedented and it certainly didn’t help Lock to be learning a new offense with a ton of new teammates at the skill positions while having limited hands-on practice time, but that should be at least a little different in 2021.
The Broncos’ plan could very well be to let it be known that they are exploring upgrades at the QB position now, but ultimately what they do could be in support of Lock’s development in the form of competition or a veteran presence that could keep the team alive in the playoff chase should Lock get hurt or struggle badly.
Stafford may have realistically been the best veteran quarterback the Broncos — or most teams — could pursue in the 2021 offseason. The team’s willingness to make a deal if the Lions were selling at a reasonable price does not mean any option will do at the position this offseason, nor does it mean the 2021 NFL Draft is undoubtedly where they will turn next.
Are the Denver Broncos done with Drew Lock?
The question is, does the Denver Broncos’ involvement in the Matthew Stafford trade sweepstakes mean the team is done with Drew Lock?
The answer is obviously no.
The Broncos can’t say for certain at this point in time that Lock is the team’s long-term option at the quarterback position. That’s the reality. They could certainly believe that he could be, but until Lock proves he is worthy of that distinction, the team has every right to explore possibilities through trades, free agency, the NFL Draft, or however.
When a player like Stafford becomes available, you make the call and ask the price. That’s what any good general manager would do. When the price is too high because the team has already decided to trade him to a different NFL team, you chalk it up for what it is.
Stafford’s availability doesn’t mean the Broncos are going to be calling the San Francisco 49ers about Jimmy Garoppolo. It doesn’t mean they are going to call the Minnesota Vikings about Kirk Cousins. It doesn’t mean they are going to send an offer to every free agent quarterback. It doesn’t mean they are going to trade up in the 2021 NFL Draft to move aggressively for whoever their QB2 is behind Trevor Lawrence. It doesn’t mean they are going to take whatever QB is still on the board at pick number nine overall just to do it.
They were doing appropriate due diligence on a veteran player who would have been a good acquisition for the right price at the most important position on the field.
To think their involvement with Stafford means they are unquestionably moving on from Drew Lock is an incorrect assumption, even if Paton does end up falling in love with someone from the 2021 NFL Draft class.
It is fair to assume that Lock is going to be expected to show substantial improvement in consistency in his second year in the Pat Shurmur offense. George Paton is not married to Drew Lock as the new GM of the team. Although Lock put plenty of good and bad on tape in 2020, perhaps the single biggest issue he had throughout the season was consistency.
Denver Broncos: Options at QB after Matthew Stafford trade
The Denver Broncos did not make a trade for Matthew Stafford. What are their options at quarterback moving forward in the 2021 offseason?
If the Broncos believe he can improve that with coaching and a little added competition in the quarterback room, it could truly bring the best out of Lock in his third NFL season.