Denver Broncos: Predicting a Phillip Lindsay contract extension

What could a Phillip Lindsay contract extension with the Denver Broncos look like?

Phillip Lindsay is the Denver Broncos’ Energizer Bunny — when he gets meaningful touches, the Broncos offense just plays better — plain and simple.

Last Sunday’s game against the Chargers proved to be no different as Lindsay barely touched the ball in the first half, but broke free for a 55-yard touchdown run that woke up the entire offense in the second half, allowing them to come back from a 21-point second-half deficit en route to a 31-30 win.

Lindsay entered the league in 2018 as an undrafted free agent out of Colorado.  It’s safe to say that the entire league screwed up multiple times in the 2018 draft as the hometown hero has turned into a true lead-back in the NFL and is certainly deserving of a new contract.

With that said, there are multiple factors that make it hard to predict exactly how the Broncos will tackle this situation:

First, Lindsay is not scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent until following the 2021 season. This coming offseason, he will be a restricted free agent. What that means is that the Broncos can place a tender on him that will pay him a certain amount and that any other team that places an offer can either be matched by the Broncos, or the Broncos will receive draft pick compensation (with exception to the original round tender). Those tenders are:

• Original Round Tender: $2,240,000 (2020 figure).  With this tender, the Broncos would have the right to match the deal, however, since Lindsay was undrafted the Broncos wouldn’t receive any compensation. We saw this following the 2015 season when C.J. Anderson was signed to an RFA contract by Miami, and the Broncos matched as they decided against offering a higher tender.
• 2nd Round Tender: $3,422,000 (2020 figure).  With this tender not only would the Broncos have the ability to match, but any team offering Lindsay a contract would owe the Broncos a second-round draft pick if the Broncos decided not to match. In reality, this is the most likely tender that the Broncos place on Lindsay if they don’t agree on an extension first. Hopefully, the Broncos learned their lesson from not tendering C.J. Anderson with this and being forced to match or lose him for nothing.
• 1st Round Tender: $4,873,000 (2020 figure).  Much like the 2nd round tender, this is the same except the compensation would be a first-round pick. This is probably overkill for a player such as Lindsay.  Not many teams are looking to give up draft capital and pay a running back a bunch of money, so the 2nd round tender is likely the route they go here.

With Lindsay only being a restricted free agent, this gives the Broncos leverage as they have the ability to give the 26-year old the RFA tender and delay a bigger payday until he is 27 — an age that is considered ‘getting-up-there’ for a running back in the NFL.

This could (or should) put the Broncos in a position to allow Lindsay some guarantees and more money now without having to give him a deal that maybe he’d get if he were an unrestricted free agent this year.

The other key factor here is the contract the Broncos decided to give Melvin Gordon this past

offseason.  While Gordon has been solid for Denver, it’s become very clear that Lindsay is the best running back on this team. This can make things complicated for both the Broncos and Lindsay when navigating a new deal.

Something that we’ve seen happen in the past is that players at the same position don’t take kindly to someone who isn’t as good as them making more money, something that Lindsay may have to accept at this point.

According to Overthecap.com, Gordon is slated to make a guaranteed salary of $4.5 million, with a $2 million roster bonus and $500k worth of game-day bonuses, adding to a cap number of $9 million when you factor in the prorated signing bonus of $2 million.

Essentially the Broncos have three options when it comes to Gordon:

1. Cut him

This is not an ideal option as Gordon has a guaranteed base salary of $4.5 million.  It’s one thing to cut a player and take a dead cap hit, but it’s another to actually have to pay a player to not play for you.

It would save the Broncos roughly $2.5 million in cash as they wouldn’t pay him his roster bonus or per-game bonus, however, they would have a dead cap hit of $6.5 million, the $4.5 million in cash they owe him plus the $2 million prorated portion of his $4 million signing bonus

2. Keep him

This is truly the most likely option. Gordon, while not spectacular has been a good compliment to Phillip Lindsay. He does things well that Lindsay doesn’t do as well, and vice-versa. Having the two of them together makes one of the strongest backfields in the NFL.

There are financial ramifications, however. Even if Lindsay ends up signing one of the RFA tenders, the Broncos would have more than $10 million of their salary cap dedicated to the running back position which is never ideal.

With that said, having a QB and all your WRs on rookie deals is the time when you can get away with that and still put a good team out there and is likely a scenario the Broncos planned for when they signed Gordon.

3. Trade him

This may be the best of the scenarios, but maybe less likely as the Broncos would have to find a trade partner to play ball.

In this scenario, the Broncos would actually trade away the $4.5 million guarantee (as well as roster bonus and per-game bonus) to another team, leaving them not having to pay him any cash and only taking a $2 million dead cap hit.

In this scenario, Lindsay could get paid as their number one back and the Broncos could look to the draft to replace the role that Melvin Gordon fills. In order to do this, another team would need to value Gordon enough to pay him $7 million for a single season as they would owe him his base salary, his $2 million roster bonus, and his $500k in per-game bonus.

The proposed contract is going to assume that Melvin Gordon remains on the roster for the 2021 season, and would be a blow to Lindsay as he’ll need to accept being the best player at his position, but not the highest-paid.

So what does the deal look like?  Let’s dive in:

• 4 years, $25.5 million ($6.375 million per year)
• $6 million signing bonus
• $11.5 million fully guaranteed at signing

Let’s break this down a bit further and look at the cashflows:

• 2021
  • $6 million signing bonus + $1.5 million base salary
  • Total Year-one cash: $7.5 million
  • Cap hit: $3 million ($1.5 million base salary + $1.5 million prorated bonus)
• 2022
  • $4 million base salary (fully guaranteed)
  • Cap hit: $5.5 million ($4 million base salary + $1.5 million prorated bonus)
  • Dead money if cut: $8.5 million
• 2023
  • $2 million roster bonus + $5 million base salary
  • Cap hit: $8.5 million ($2 million roster bonus + $5 million base salary + $1.5 million prorated bonus)
  • Dead money if cut: $3 million
• 2024
  • $7 million base salary
  • Cap hit: $8.5 million ($7 million base salary + $1.5 million prorated bonus)
  • Dead money if cut: $1.5 million

So why does this make sense for both sides?

Well, from Lindsay’s standpoint, it allows him to get paid sooner. Right now, he’s likely looking at the $3.422 million 2nd round tender as an RFA. It’s very doubtful that any team is going to be willing to part with a 2nd round pick just to pay a 26-year-old RB that isn’t the traditional bell cow.

In this deal, Lindsay would essentially be doubling his earning potential next year and locking in a guaranteed salary in 2022 as well.

From the Broncos’ standpoint, it allows them to lower the cap hit versus what it would be if he is playing on a 2nd round tender and really only ties him to the team through 2022 as the dead money is very workable if they move on after that.

From a market perspective, this is a very comparable deal to what we saw the Chargers sign Austin Ekeler to this past offseason, as it just slightly exceed Ekeler in total money and average annual value. The only area that Ekeler comes out on top is in full guarantees, however, Ekeler would have been two years younger than Lindsay at the time he inked his deal.

It also exceeds the deal that Tarik Cohen who is also a younger, comparable back in total value, average annual value, and full guarantees.

The only unfortunate for Lindsay in this deal is that he has to watch Melvin Gordon make equal money as him (exactly equal by design) in cash in 2021, but at least isn’t being paid less to do more.

But, this beats the alternative of once again making far less to do more by playing on the RFA tender.

Running backs are always difficult to project and even tougher for teams to figure out how to deal with. However, Phillip Lindsay has provided so much value for the Broncos on his current contract they truly owe it to him to reward him with a new deal.

Having Lindsay and Gordon both around and happy for another year is what is best for this team, and hopefully, John Elway can get something done.