How can the Denver Broncos get Drew Lock back on the right path?
Drew Lock hit rock bottom against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 7.
The Denver Broncos bought into Lock after a 4-1 finish to the 2019 regular season, hired Pat Shurmur and Mike Shula to set him up for success, used their top two draft choices on wide receivers, and ultimately constructed what many believed was the offense of the future.
And many still do.
Some in Broncos Country have jumped ship on Drew Lock after three games in 2020. While the fanatical reaction of, well, fans is understandable, jumping ship on Lock at this point is unwise and unwarranted.
Concern? Valid. Skepticism? Also valid.
As talented, poised, well-spoken, and charismatic as Lock is, he is not exempt from legitimate critique and criticism of his game. The Denver Broncos have to make certain he is “the guy” for the franchise moving forward, and Lock must seize the opportunity he has been given.
He will not simply be anointed the franchise quarterback based on second-round draft status, a strong arm, and some fun games as he came off of IR in his rookie season. The pressure is on Lock in 2020 to prove himself, establish himself, and prove to John Elway, Vic Fangio, and the rest of the Denver Broncos that he is worthy of their continued faith and favor.
Lock is just eight games into his NFL career. He’s dealt with two fairly significant injuries at this point, has had multiple offensive coordinators, and in 2020, he’s only been on the field with Courtland Sutton for a small handful of plays.
Adversity is common in the NFL, so not having Sutton is a valid gripe for ardent Lock supporters, but there are plenty of talented players in Denver’s offense to get the ball to.
As of right now, many in Broncos Country are expressing significant concern over whether or not Lock is the long-term solution at quarterback. Through three-plus games, he has completed just 55.9 percent of his passes with one touchdown (in week one) and now four interceptions.
All four of those interceptions have come in the two games since Lock came off the injury report, on the road against the Patriots and at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Two of those four interceptions have cost the Broncos in a big way, getting returned by the opposing team for a touchdown. Between Lock’s pair of pick-sixes, Brett Rypien’s pick-six against the Jets, and Blake Bortles’ historic propensity for pick-sixes, the Broncos’ quarterback room is all too familiar with that particularly dreadful play.
After the home game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos are 2-4 and it seems the fan base is very unclear whether or not Lock is a franchise quarterback. Regardless of your faith (or lack of it) in Lock’s ability to get through this slump, there are some clear areas he needs to show improvement.
There are also areas the Broncos’ coaching staff must set him up for success.
How can Lock get back on track? How can we see more performances from him like we saw against the Houston Texans last year?
1. Reign it in a little bit…
The first thing Drew Lock needs to do to get back on course? Reign it in.
What do I mean by that?
Statistics don’t often tell the full story, but in this case, they bring some valuable insight into why Lock has struggled in just over 100 pass attempts this season.
Among qualifying quarterbacks, Lock leads the NFL this season with an average of 10.3 intended air yards per pass attempt. This means that Lock is chucking the ball downfield more than any other QB in the NFL on a per pass attempt basis.
The Broncos’ offensive coaches have given him the freedom to do this, and Lock is taking advantage…a little too much.
It was Lock himself in 2019 who said, “You can’t go broke taking a profit.” That mindset earned Lock a lot of confidence from the front office as he averaged 6.8 air yards per attempt but had a higher touchdown percentage and a much lower interception percentage.
Downfield throws are crucial, but one of the problems I have taken note of with the Broncos’ offense all season — regardless of the quarterback — has been the number of low percentage passing plays attempted in crucial downs or situations.
Throwing the ball 20-plus yards downfield on 3rd-and-2 is probably not the best idea. There have been far too many instances this season where Lock is putting the ball deep downfield and hoping the receiver can come down with it, rather than taking the ‘profit’ of a higher percentage pass play with less of a chance to gain 20-plus yards.
Part of this falls on offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur as well. Shurmur has been dialing up these lower percentage plays and Lock is simply running the play as called.
What has been happening should not come as a huge shock. Drew Lock leads the NFL in air yards per pass attempt. The more air under the ball, typically you’re going to have less of a chance of completing the pass.
The first thing the Broncos need to do to get Drew Lock back on course is call higher percentage passing plays and Lock needs to be accurate on those throws.
2. Let the playmakers create
This is maybe a little impatient in some ways because KJ Hamler, Noah Fant, and Phillip Lindsay have been hurt, but the Broncos have to start putting their young playmakers in position to create after the catch more frequently.
We have seen some glimpses of these guys getting the chance to make plays after the catch. As a matter of fact, The Broncos average 6.1 yards after the catch per completion on Drew Lock throws, the 7th-best mark in the NFL among qualifying QBs.
With that being said, Hamler and Fant being back in the lineup mean that the Broncos need to work the ball to them on shorter passing plays and let those guys, along with Jerry Jeudy and running back Phillip Lindsay, do what they do best — make people miss and run right by defenders.
The Broncos’ passing offense needs an identity. At this point, it’s been chucking the ball downfield with a low percentage of success. That needs to change to the playmakers making people miss, breaking tackles, and making Drew Lock look good.
3. Better playcalling and situational awareness
We have alluded to this already, but the play-calling and quarterback play both need to be better for the Broncos.
Drew Lock leading the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt is not simply a function of Lock making the decision to chuck the ball deep every play. He’s being empowered to do so by Pat Shurmur, Mike Shula, and the guys in charge of calling plays.
In addition to getting more high percentage passing plays in the rotation, Pat Shurmur has to be more situationally aware as well.
A couple of examples come immediately to mind.
Against the New England Patriots, Shurmur called a play-action pass on 3rd down inside the 10-yard line, a red-zone situation. The play-action fooled nobody in an obvious passing situation.
Against the Kansas City Chiefs, there were a number of curious play calls made. First and foremost — why was Shurmur calling for a flea-flicker when Phillip Lindsay had been gashing the Chiefs’ defense on the ground?
The flea-flicker ultimately cost the Broncos a potential scoring possession and set the Chiefs up with an easy one.
Another hilariously bad sequence against the Kansas City Chiefs came after Lock unfortunately took a sack on a 1st-and-10 as the Broncos were near Brandon McManus’ field goal range. After the three-yard sack, Shurmur called a play with an empty backfield, telegraphing ‘pass’ all the way.
The Chiefs made the easiest defensive call of all-time, sending six players at the Broncos’ five blockers, rushing Drew Lock’s process and getting a pick-six from Daniel Sorenson.
Lock could have checked a ‘hot’ route to Jerry Jeudy over the middle of the field where the blitzers had left an empty void, but it didn’t happen. Set up the young QB for some success in that situation by at least forcing the defensive coordinator to plan for both a run and a pass.
There’s plenty of blame to go around for why the Broncos’ passing game has stunk this season, but head coach Vic Fangio acknowledged the fact that the Broncos have had “too many negative plays” when utilizing a three-wide receiver grouping.
In three-wide receiver personnel, the Broncos have given up 13 sacks and thrown nine interceptions. I would say he’s right, that’s too many negative plays.
The solution here is probably just a bit more common sense on play calls for the time being, and get cute when you’re good enough to get cute.
4. Catch the ball
This is going to sound like a crazy idea, but the Denver Broncos need to do better at simply catching the ball.
It will be astounding how much better the offense looks when this happens.
The Broncos have the second-worst drop rate in the NFL right now, trailing only the New York Giants. Those drops are not the reason Lock is struggling at this point, but they certainly aren’t helping.
It was well-documented against the New England Patriots that Lock had no fewer than three touchdown throws that were basically completely missed or dropped, even if they were tough plays.
NFL receivers and tight ends have to make tough catches.
This can also be helped by point number one, which is reigning it in a bit and getting higher percentage looks. Not every receiver is going to come down with a 50-50 ball, but they have to be consistent at catching the easy ones.
Even though the Tennessee Titans gifted the Broncos opportunities to stay in the game with missed field goals, the Broncos could have easily won that game were it not for dropped passes.
Drew Lock’s interceptions against the Patriots probably never happen if even a couple of those 50-50 balls are hauled in by receivers.
Drops weren’t the issue against the Chiefs, but they have been this season for the Broncos no matter who is throwing the ball. This has to take a turn for the better.
Conclusion
Everything came boiling over for Drew Lock against the Kansas City Chiefs.
He reverted to old (bad) habits with his footwork. He made poor decisions with the football. He was inaccurate on some plays the Broncos needed to have. He missed open receivers while looking for deep shots.
In general, Lock put the ball in harm’s way more often than he made really good decisions with the ball. There were still some nice throws from Lock in this game, but it was a low point for him as a member of the Denver Broncos.
This has led many to believe that Lock has been on a consistent path of regression since his first few games in 2019. I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case.
This game against the Chiefs can serve as a major learning moment for Lock, but he does have to turn things around quickly. At a bare minimum, the Broncos need Lock to be a better decision-maker in the pocket, get through his reads quickly, and show that he is both able to keep the offense moving and punch the ball in when they get to the red zone.
Lock can still take shots downfield, but those need to be more appropriately mixed with high-percentage looks in the passing game.
The Broncos must find their rhythm as a passing attack offensively. It’s understandable that Lock is still in the adjustment period with Shurmur’s offense being new and all of his receivers being new as well, but it’s harder to excuse when so many young QBs around the league are having success with the same amount of time to prepare this offseason.
The excuses for Lock must end. The reasons for his struggles are, in many ways, valid. The bottom line is, as tight end Noah Fant put it, the offense needs to “put up or shut up” and just get things going quickly, or the patience of both the fans and the front office will run out.